2012 MLS Magic and Tragic Numbers

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by aletheist, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. methodic

    methodic Member

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    It is currently 9 points and posted two posts above yours.


  2. ColinMcCarthy

    ColinMcCarthy Member+

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    As indicated, I'm not that smart. Thanks.
  3. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member

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    Is Toronto eliminated from the 2013 playoffs yet?
  4. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator Staff Member

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  5. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

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  6. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member

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  7. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member

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    KC is now in the playoffs. San Jose is 6 points away from CCL competition.
  8. aletheist

    aletheist Member

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    Yes, it was. :D Is it too much to ask for a Dallas win tonight? Probably.
  9. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

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    Out side of a lot of luck... no it wasn't too much to ask :\
  10. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

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    Once again, Vancouver failed to do its part in ending playoff hopes for 3 teams out West. And Dallas tying didn't help matters, either.

    POR can still technically make the playoffs if they win out and VAN loses out- because POR has more goals scored this year. The only help POR would need (besides VAN losing out) is having Dallas doing no better than earning a single point over its next 3 games.

    COL can lose to LA tomorrow and still won't be mathematically eliminated, with the same scenarios as for POR.

    CHV has a game in hand on DAL and VAN, so technically again they too aren't mathematically eliminated.

    It's almost pathetic how no one is playing like they want that last playoff seed out West.
    henryo repped this.
  11. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

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    I don't know. I think Dallas has been doing pretty well. Who thought they'd have a good shot at it a month ago?

    Also, the games left between these teams:

    Vancouver @ Chivas Oct 3
    Chivas @ Dallas Oct 7
    Chivas @ Colorado Oct 20
    Vancouver @ Portland Oct 21
    Dallas @ Chivas Oct 28

    We will get a very good sense of who is the worst in the West by season's end. The good money is on Chivas.
  12. aletheist

    aletheist Member

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    Since tonight's outcome between LAG and COL will not affect them--except possibly COL's TN--here are the updated numbers; corrections are always welcome. GR = games remaining, MP = maximum points, MN = magic number, TN = tragic number, SS = Supporters' Shield magic number.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SKC   58    3   67   **   **   13
      2   NYR   53    3   62    5   15   18
      3   CHI   53    4   65    5   18   18
      4   DCU   51    3   60    7   13   --
      5   HOU   49    3   58    9   11   --
      6   CLB   48    3   57   11    9   --
      7   MON   40    3   49   --    1   --
      8   PHL   30    5   45   --   --   --
      9   NER   29    3   38   --   --   --
     10   TOR   22    3   31   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SJE   61    3   70   **   **    7
      2   RSL   52    3   61   **   **   --
      3   LAG   49    4   61   **   **   --
      4   SEA   49    4   61   **   **   --
      5   VAN   39    3   48    8   12   --
      6   FCD   37    3   46   12    8   --
      7   COL   30    4   42   19    4   --
      8   POR   30    3   39   --    1   --
      9   CHV   28    4   40   21    2   --
    
    SKC and SEA have clinched playoff spots. SJE technically needs one more point to wrap up first place in the Western Conference, since it is still possible--although very unlikely--that RSL, LAG, or SEA could tie them on 61 points and catch them in goals scored.​
    ColinMcCarthy repped this.
  13. aletheist

    aletheist Member

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    I got ambitious and calculated magic numbers for all of the individual playoff slots, since each carries a tangible benefit--top four (T4) guarantees a home playoff game, top three (T3) avoids the wildcard round, top two (T2) gets home-field advantage in the conference semifinals, and first place (1P) means home-field advantage through the conference finals. The Western Conference is a little tricky right now, since LAG, RSL, and SEA will all play each other down the stretch. Again, corrections are welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   TN   MN   T4   T3   T2   1P   SS
      1   SKC   58    3   67   **   **    1    3    5    8   13
      2   NYR   53    3   62   15    5    6    8   13   15   18
      3   CHI   53    4   65   18    5    6    8   10   15   18
      4   DCU   51    3   60   13    7    8   12   15   17   --
      5   HOU   49    3   58   11    9   12   14   17   19   --
      6   CLB   48    3   57    9   11   13   15   18   --   --
      7   MON   40    3   49    1   --   --   --   --   --   --
      8   PHL   30    5   45   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
      9   NER   29    3   38   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
     10   TOR   22    3   31   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   TN   MN   T4   T3   T2   1P   SS
      1   SJE   61    3   70   **   **   **   **   **    1    7
      2   RSL   52    3   61   **   **   **    7    8   19   --
      3   LAG   50    3   59   **   **   **   10   12   --   --
      4   SEA   49    4   61   **   **   **   10   11   22   --
      5   VAN   39    3   48   12    8   --   --   --   --   --
      6   FCD   37    3   46    8   12   --   --   --   --   --
      7   COL   31    3   40    2   18   --   --   --   --   --
      8   POR   30    3   39    1   --   --   --   --   --   --
      9   CHV   28    4   40    2   21   --   --   --   --   --
    
    ImaPuppy, edwardgr, tab5g and 1 other person repped this.
  14. henryo

    henryo Member+

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    As of now, the "gap of injustice" between the 5th Seeds in East/West is 10 points through Week #30, already larger than the league record of 8 points set in 1999 (S.J. out with 37, while Miami in with 29).

    Should the current trend out West/East continues for the rest of the season, the gap could be widened to like 15 points!!??

    Simply mind boggling... :confused:
  15. Kappa74

    Kappa74 Member+

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    With TFC not having won since mid july, the Wooden Spoon race doesn't offer much interest this year. However, there are some going ons at the bottom of the table. The sub 1.00 pts/gm is the lazy man's benchmark to identify a truly bad season, and this year we currently have 4 such teams (PHI, POR, CHV, TFC). If this holds, it would be a first for MLS.

    96- 1 COL
    97- 1 (SJ)
    98- 1 (NE)
    99- 3 (NE, NY, KC)
    00- 1 (DC)
    01- 1 (TB)
    02- 0
    03- 1 (DAL)
    04- 0
    05- 2 (RSL, CHV)
    06- 0
    07- 2 (RSL, TFC)
    08- 0
    09- 1 (NY)
    10- 2 (DC, CHV)
    11- 3 (TFC, NE, VAN)
    ImaPuppy and henryo repped this.
  16. henryo

    henryo Member+

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    Mathematically speaking, TFC's sub-1.00 season is confirmed (22 points/3 games left/max 31 points), while 5 other teams are still not out of it yet (until they reach 34 points or more): Colorado, Portland, Phily, N.E. & Chivas.

    So it could be up to SIX teams, wow! :geek:
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    Colorad0 was also below 1 pt/game in 2001 (23 pts in 26 games for a .88 pts/game total).
    bunge and henryo repped this.
  18. Kappa74

    Kappa74 Member+

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    Good catch. I just made the list on the fly, because this year seemed somewhat out of the ordinary. Of course, there are more teams now, so this may be not be noteworthy.
  19. henryo

    henryo Member+

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    The other side of the coin would be the superb seasons with sup-2.00 ppg, which have been achieved by just 3 teams below:
    Code:
    Best MLS Teams Over 1 Season
     
    Rnk  Year    Team    GP    W    L    D    Pts    PPG    GF    GA    GD    GFA    GAA    GDA
    1    1998    L.A.    32    22    6    4    70    2.188    85    44    41    2.656    1.375    1.281
    2    2001    Miami  26    16    5    5    53    2.038    57    36    21    2.192    1.385    0.808
    3    2005    S.J.    32    18    4    10   64    2.000    53    31    22    1.656    0.969    0.688
    For 2012, only S.J. is still on course, should they drop less than 2 points in the final 3 games.
    Kappa74 repped this.
  20. derek750

    derek750 Member+

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    I wouldn't be surprised if the Union join this prestigious club of suckitude by the end of the season but I think you need to replace Philadelphia (1.03 PPG) with New England (0.94 PPG) in your current list.
    Kappa74 repped this.
  21. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member

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    The table actually cheered me up....to think that only 3 of our 6 seasons we have been below 1ppg! I assumed (without looking) that it was more like 4 or 5! Small bits of good news do cheer you up!
    Sachsen repped this.
  22. Kappa74

    Kappa74 Member+

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    My bad. I have NE in my notebook but somehow Philly was on my mind when typing this up (obviously too quickly).
  23. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator Staff Member

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    And not only did none of the three win MLS Cup, none of them made the final.

    (And two of them did not exist the following season.)
    Mr. Bandwagon, henryo and SoccerMan94043 repped this.
  24. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

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    This just proves the LA bias of the league which is the only team that will be allowed to succeed >= 2 averages points per game! :)

    Based on this new data and the fact that SJE has an approved stadium plan in place, I have to assume SJE will not reach the 2 PPG average.
  25. henryo

    henryo Member+

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    These would be the famous "Supporters' Shield's Jinx":

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