2012 NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Oct 8, 2012.

  1. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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    I've gone through the process I described above for the #1 seed "pool." For that pool, I use the teams ranked #1 through #6 in the ARPI.

    For the "record against teams already selected for the bracket" criterion, I considered results against all teams in the bracket. For that criterion, I ranked the teams as follows:

    1 Stanford
    2 Florida State
    3 BYU
    4 Penn State
    5 UCLA
    6 San Diego State

    After my first run through using all the criteria, I had the teams as follows:

    Stanford ahead of 5 teams
    Florida State 1.5
    BYU 1.5
    UCLA 1
    San Diego State 1
    Penn State 0

    I then selected Stanford, Florida State, and BYU for #1 seeds and limited the system to comparing the remaining three teams. After my second run, I had those three teams as follows:

    UCLA 1
    Penn State 0
    San Diego State 0

    The question is, why did the Committee give Penn State the fourth #1 seed? It could have been simply based on the "record against teams already selected for the bracket" criterion. Based on what I observed last year in the Committee's giving Tennessee a #4 seed though ranked #25, however, I have another possible reason. One of the things the Committee receives, as part of the Team Sheets, is each team's conference's average ARPI and the rank of that ARPI among conferences. My guess is that, when it comes to seeding, the Committee takes the conferences' ratings and ranks into consideration.

    Here are the average ARPI ratings for the top 8 conferences this year:

    1. ACC .6047
    2. Pac 12 .5863
    3. Big Ten .5772
    4. SEC .5726
    5. Big 12 .5699
    6. West Coast .5697
    7. Big East .5490
    8. Mountain West .5337

    Combined with Penn State's record against teams already selected, the Committee may have felt it was more appropriate to give a #1 seed to Penn State, as a representative of the third-ranked Big Ten, than to give two of the #1 seeds to the second-ranked Pac 12 or a seed to the eighth-ranked Mountain West. Also, if you look closely at the average ratings of the SEC, Big 12, and West Coast conferences, they are very close so BYU could be seen as a representative of that group.

    I haven't done the remaining seed "pods" yet, and won't until later, so I can't say why those seeds worked out as they did. Under my system, with San Diego State and UCLA not getting #1 seeds they would go into the #2 seed pool and they may fare differently there than they did in the #1 pool due to matchups, common opponents, and so on.

    I think the above rationale, however, could explain the #1 seeds.
    hykos1045 repped this.


  2. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

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    I dont think anybody has an idea which BC team will hit the field.
    The one which beat FSU or the one that lost to Pepperdine?

    but yeah, I'm their fan, too :)
  3. cachundo

    cachundo 2011 National Champions

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  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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  5. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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    In response to discussion on a couple of other forums about what happens to the Sunday game if BYU reaches the College Cup, the following is from the Pre-Championship Manual:

    "(Note: If an institution that has a policy against competing on Sunday or another religious day advances to the semifinals, pending the outcome of the semifinal games, the championship game may be contested on Saturday, December 1. The second and third rounds may also be contested on Thursday and Saturday if institutional policies prohibit Sunday plan.)"
  6. kolabear

    kolabear Member

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    For a #1 seed, Stanford didn't get many favors. In general, the seeds in the West (or at least, those that were "less East") got, on average, tougher opponents relative to their seeding - at least as measured in quasi-Elo terms using the Massey Ratings.

    For instance, through the first 3 rounds, BYU's likely opponents have the highest average rating of any of the #1 seeds, followed by Stanford.

    Of the #2 seeds, San Diego State's projected opponents have the highest average rating.

    Of the #3 seeds, Baylor's projected opponents have the highest average rating, followed by UCLA.

    Of the #4 seeds, Portland's projected opponents have highest average rating.
  7. kolabear

    kolabear Member

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    Closest matchups for the 1st round, taken at a glance:

    Colorado College (1665) at Denver (1695)
    California (1825) at Pepperdine (1785)
    Illinois (1715) at Missouri (1765)
    Georgetown (1745) at Virginia Tech (1830)
    Baylor (1845) at Arizona St (1715)
    Princeton (1680) at West Virginia (1710)
    Auburn (1700) at Washington (1705)
    Washington St (1770) at Portland (1795)
    Miami (1775) at UCF (1770)

    homefield usually worth about 50 to 60 rating points in the Albyn Jones system.
    50 points = .586 win probablility
    100 points = .667 win probability
    150 points = .739 win probability
    200 points = .800 win probability
  8. MRAD12

    MRAD12 Member+

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    Is anyone going to create a bracket pool, please? Somone always does it and we have fun predicting.
    Nacional Tijuana repped this.
  9. kolabear

    kolabear Member

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    Nacional Tijuana repped this.
  10. derbarkasmann

    derbarkasmann Member

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    I forgot about BC knocking off FSU. And Pepperdine is not chopped liver. Penn State may have a handful in round 2.
  11. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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    The NCAA's "SelectionTeam Sheets" and "Selection Nitty Gritty" reports both are now available in the NCAA RPI Archive here: https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/default.aspx. These are the data and RPI resource reports the Women's Soccer Committee used in the NCAA Tournament at large selection and seeding process. When you get to the linked page, set the Document Query table to Division I, Soccer, Women, Selection, All Reports, 2012 and you will see links to the two reports.

    This is the first time the NCAA has published these reports for women's soccer in advance of the Tournament. In prior years, the reports generally were not available until mid-December. This is part of the NCAA's making more information available during the course of the season and is a very welcome addition to that information.

    Thank you NCAA!
  12. UncleFugly

    UncleFugly Member

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    Sounds like you're an Anyone-but-PSU guy...
  13. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

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    Well, no. Not anyone.

    I'm even more opposed to say, Wazzu, Central Michigan, or Michigan beating them
  14. UncleFugly

    UncleFugly Member

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    Let the games begin. Should be an interesting weekend.
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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    In a previous post, I discussed the #1 seeds and indicated that if I use the RPI only to define the pool of potential candidates (top 6 RPI teams), then apply the system I use for at large selections (which I discussed in detail in an even earlier post) to the remaining criteria and games data, and treat "results against teams already selected" as the tiebreaker if needed, then my system produces the same #1 seeds that the Committee selected.

    I now have gone through the same process to analyze the #2 seeds. Essentially, the system looks at head to head results, results against common opponents, and results against teams in the bracket, assigning each one an equal weight. In case of the need for a tiebreaker, I'd use results against teams in the bracket. (There are lots of details about how I apply each of these criteria to the data.) Based on the past five years' seeding, I treat the candidate pool as the top 13 teams less those that already have received #1 seeds, which gives a group of 9 teams.

    I ranked the teams under the "results against teams in the bracket" as follows:

    1 Virginia
    2 North Carolina
    3 Florida
    4 San Diego State
    5 Santa Clara
    (This one was tough -- their best win was only against #27 California. They had two home ties, against San Diego State and Portland. Although these are of some value, my system considers home ties as equal to neutral or away losses due to the effects of home field advantage, so in my comparison of teams' results, these both don't count for much. They also had an away tie, however, against BYU, which counts for a lot. Others could rate them higher.)​
    6 UCLA
    7 Ohio State
    8 Baylor
    9 Marquette

    Using these rankings, and running them through my system together with head to head results and results against common opponents, I came out with the following rankings of the 9 competing teams:

    Virginia came out ahead of 6 teams
    San Diego State 5
    Florida 5
    North Carolina 5
    UCLA 4
    Santa Clara 3
    Baylor 2
    Ohio State 1
    Marquette 1

    Thus the system gives the four #2 seeds to Virginia, San Diego State, Florida, and North Carolina. This matches what the Committee did.

    Next, I get to do the #3 seeds.
  16. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

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    Ran some numbers crunching, and from the model, have determined the Vegas % odds for each team to win the National Championship (broken down into %'s). Which would you bet on, if you had to put money on these odds? Remember, you would win more money if you pick a team to win it all with lesser odds, but the team with the bigger odds gives you a greater chance to win some money (this is all in the event that the team you pick ends up winning it all of course).

    Team that will be National Champion - Vegas odds
    Stanford - 17.2% chance
    Florida State - 13.1%
    UCLA - 12.9%
    North Carolina - 9.8%
    Virginia - 7.9%
    Penn State - 5.0%
    Duke - 3.8%
    Florida - 3.2%
    Wake Forest - 2.4%
    BYU - 2.1%
    San Diego State - 2.0%
    Baylor - 1.8%
    Ohio State - 1.7%
    Texas A&M - 1.7%
    Portland - 1.6%
    Maryland - 1.5%
    Marquette - 1.5%
    Notre Dame - 1.5%
    Santa Clara - 1.4%
    West Virginia - 1.4%
    Boston College - 1.3%
    Georgetown - 1.2%
    REST OF FIELD - 4.0%


    (22 teams are listed above. Rest of field includes the other 42 teams. 4% chance combined that one of the 42 other teams not listed will be National Champion).

    But ask yourself, how often does a non Top 22 type of team win the National Championship?
    But it's also due to happen "at some point". Will it be this year? 4% chance.
  17. raiderD15

    raiderD15 Member

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    These games will be broadcast according to NCAA.com (dunno if there is a fee involved, would need to check with each host team's athletic website). Links to the broadcasts can be found here: http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/soccer-women/d1/2012 Click on the individual game module to find the video links.

    Long Beach St. @ Santa Clara (Sat. @ 4 EST)
    Colorado College @ Denver (Sat. @ 2 EST)
    Stony Brook @ Maryland (Sat. @ 7 EST)
    Cal @ Pepperdine (Sat. @ 4 EST)
    Illinois @ Mizzou (Sat. @ 7:30 EST)
    Princeton @ West Virginia (Sat. @ 7 EST)
    Auburn @ Washington (Fri. @ 10 EST)
    Washington St. @ Portland (Fri. @ 10 EST)
    Loyola Md. @ Duke (Sat. @ 4 EST)
    Miami (OH) @ Tennessee (Sun. @ 2 EST)
    Colgate @ Rutgers (Sat. @ 7 EST)
    FGC @ Florida (Fri. @ 3 EST)
    Milwaukee @ Notre Dame (Fri. @ 7 EST)
    Ga. Southern @ Wake Forest (Sat. @ 7 EST)
    SFA @ Texas A&M (Fri. @ 8 EST)

    Let me give a big shoutout to the Florida Gators-the only top 2 seed to feature an online broadcast of the first-round games (at least according to NCAA.com. I would love to be proven wrong)
  18. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

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    On to the #3 seeds, using the system I've already described. For records against other teams in the bracket, I ranked the teams as follows:

    1 Wake Forest'
    2 Duke
    3 UCLA
    4 Ohio State
    5 Baylor
    6 Tennessee
    7 Santa Clara
    Anyone who compares will see that my ranking Santa Clara below UCLA, Ohio State, and Baylor is a change from what I did for the #2 seeds. I did this after further thinking, believing that the Committee did not assign much value to ties. I'm not sure I agree with this, but it is an approach that is consistent with the Committee's decisions. I think Santa Clara's away tie against BYU should count for quite a bit, but having started down the road of discounting ties, I applied the discount there too.​
    8 Marquette
    9 Texas A&M
    10 UCF

    With these rankings for the records against teams in the bracket criterion, and adding in head to head results and results against common opponents, I came up with the following ranking of the teams:

    UCLA ahead of 8 teams
    Duke 7
    Wake Forest 7
    Baylor 5
    Tennessee 5
    Ohio State 4
    Santa Clara 3
    Marquette 2
    Texas A&M 2
    UCF 1

    This gave #3 seeds to UCLA, Duke, and Wake Forest, leaving a tie between Baylor and Tennessee. The tiebreaker is record against teams in the bracket, and Baylor ranked ahead of Tennessee on this criterion, so the system gave the last #3 seed to Baylor. These #3 seeds match the Committee's seeds.
    Part of what this shows is the vital importance of seed candidates' records against teams selected for the bracket. That is not the only factor that counts; head to head results and results against common opponents count too. Those other factors, however, don't always have data to allow a comparison of one team to each other team, so this tends to increase the effective weight of the records against teams selected for the bracket factor.

    Now, on to the #4 seeds.
  19. kolabear

    kolabear Member

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    Going to be interesting to see how this procedure leaves out Tennessee (and Santa Clara) from the seeds altogether.
  20. kolabear

    kolabear Member

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    Expected win probabilities for the 1st round using the bastardized Massey Ratings unscientifically converted to an Elo-ish Albyn Jones scale.:

    I set the homefield advantage at 60 points. The games are sorted from lowest to highest probability for the higher-rated teams. In the first two games involving Miami (FL) and California, the higher-rated teams are slight underdogs because they are playing away.

    asterisk* = lower-rated team playing at home

    seedTeam AratingTeam Brating expected win pct.

    Miami (FL) 1775 UCF* 1770 0.406
    California 1825 Pepperdine* 1785
    0.465
    Washington 1705 Auburn 1700 0.611
    3 Baylor 1845 Arizona St* 1715 0.619
    Rutgers 1610 Colgate* 1480 0.619
    4 Portland 1795 Washington St 1770 0.643
    Denver 1695 Colorado College 1665 0.651
    West Virginia 1710 Princeton 1680 0.651
    Missouri 1765 Illinois 1715 0.682
    Virginia Tech 1830 Georgetown 1745 0.732
    Santa Clara 1800 Long Beach St 1655 0.805
    Tennessee 1815 Miami (OH) 1655 0.821
    Michigan 1785 Central Mich 1620 0.826
    2 San Diego St 1945 CS Northridge 1735 0.867
    Texas A&M 1845 Stephen F Austin 1635 0.867
    3 UCLA 1920 Wisconsin 1700 0.874
    Texas Tech 1745 North Texas 1525 0.874
    Boston College 1780 Hofstra 1505 0.911
    Notre Dame 1745 Milwaukee 1445 0.924
    Kentucky 1715 Tenn. Martin 1390 0.935
    2 Virginia 1995 La Salle 1650 0.943
    1 BYU 1985 Utah St 1590 0.959
    4 Marquette 1885 Illinois St 1455 0.968
    4 Maryland 1825 Stony Brook 1380 0.97
    2 Florida 1925 Florida Gulf 1480 0.97
    4 Ohio St 1860 Oakland 1390 0.975
    3 Duke 1885 Loyola MD 1395 0.978
    2 North Carolina 1925 Radford 1405 0.982
    3 Wake Forest 1835 Ga Southern 1295 0.985
    1 Penn St 1950 Long Island 1340 0.989
    1 Stanford 2055 Idaho St 1405 0.992
    1 Florida St 1995 Miss. Valley 740 >0.996

    50 pt differential = .586 expected win pct.
    100 pts = .667
    150 pts = .739
    200 pts = .800
    250 pts = .850
    300 pts = .889
    400 pts = .941
  21. bmoline

    bmoline Member

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    Yeah, it's more of a "I hope someone beats Penn State before we have to play them" type of sentiment, if I'm understanding cliveworshipper's thought process. Which in and of itself can be a dangerous endeavor. ;)
  22. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

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    Tell me you haven't had one little thought of Radford striking lightning. :)

    But I have become an LIU fan because then the next weekend goes to Portland.
  23. UFGator98

    UFGator98 Member

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    Big boost for Florida, all American defender Kat Williamson is back after 2 months out with a knee injury.
  24. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

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    GoFemBurr Madness is underway.
    GoFemBurr Madness, or November madness, whatever you want to call it.
    Fem for female, and Burr for cold season.

    The first match of GoFemBurr madness is on now.
    Big shocker so far. Florida is beating Florida Golf Club Coast, by a score of 1-0, at the half.
    Watch live here for free:
    http://www.gatorvision.tv/mediaPortal/player.dbml?&catid=0&DB_OEM_ID=6500

    When you go to the link above, it takes you to the audio link.
    Make sure to click on the video link, over to the right, under where it says Live Events.
  25. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

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    They should have redshirted her.
    She only played like 3 matches all year or so before getting hurt.
    Wouldn't she have been eligible for a redshirt?

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