2012 Presidential Election Poll

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Iaquinta, Nov 1, 2012.

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Who will win?

  1. Barack Obama

    57 vote(s)
    86.4%
  2. Willard "Mitt" Romney

    9 vote(s)
    13.6%
  1. Iaquinta

    Iaquinta Member

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    Tell us who you think will win the election, and why. Electoral college predictions are of course welcome.


  2. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Obama, 300 electoral votes.

    Why is obvious. The state-by-state polls indicate something in that range. It would be silly for me to forecast anything else. What data do I have that the polls do not?

    I don't do amateur brain surgery, amateur climate science, or amateur poll prognostications. I don't trust those who do.
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  3. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

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    This poll is invalid because it doesn't give me third party choices.
  4. Iaquinta

    Iaquinta Member

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    Has Nate Silver really taken all the fun out of predictions? ;)


  5. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    Obama 281 - 259 (I think that's right)

    It will be a good night for Democrats. They will maintain the status quo in the senate and pick up a couple of house seats (although not nearly enough to win the house)

    I will look at this as a success because I think it basically stops the Tea Party revolution. This will be the Tea Party's high water mark. Their base will never be so motivated as it has been now between 2010 and 2012 and it still won't be enough to defeat Obama and win the senate. The Republican Party will be forced to reach out to add to its base. My guess is that they will reach out to Hispanics by moderating their approach to immigration.

    A scenario where the Republican party is forced to broaden its coalition and thus diluting the Tea Party influence is a good thing. Obviously I'm not suggesting that the Tea Party is going away any time soon ... just that it's not likely to grow any bigger than it is today.
  6. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

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    I would LOVE for the scenario posited by Boloni to be what I wake up to next Wednesday. I'll hold off making at predictions, however. because I'm a gutless SOB.

    That said, if Obama does win, and we get something along the lines of the status quo in Congress, seeing what happens within the Republican Party over the next few years will be absolutely fascinating. I'm not talking about irrelevant stuff like Rush moving to Costa Rica. I mean the real shape and direction the party takes in response to (1) a crushing defeat and (2) national demographic trends that make it increasingly difficult for a party with its kind of platform to win a national election.

    To be clear, I'm in the camp that thinks the country is far better off with a serious, sane Republican Party. I just have a hard time envisioning current party leadership steering back toward the middle.
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  7. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

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    I say it's about 70-30. Either they double down on the crazy because they're desperate to keep the base they have, or they decide they want to win a national election in 2032 when Texas is blue.

    It's like a capped-out NBA team - they could keep throwing good money after bad because, hey, they still have some recognizable players who sell season tickets and they're still making the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. Or they can blow up the team and suffer through some bad seasons to give themselves a chance to go deep in the playoffs.
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  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

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    Indeed! Plus, there's no Grimes option.

    Hail Grimes!
    I suspect that'll take another cycle or two. If Romney loses, they'll blame his lack of true conservative credentials. And then they will triple down on the crazy for at least another 4 years.
  9. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    There's not much to blow up. The Tea Partiers aren't going anywhere. If I was the Republicans I'd be more worried about the erosion of the libertarian wing of the party in Western and Northern states. Firing the neocons and moderating on some social issues will help keep the libertarians in the party. No big social issues like abortion or gay marriage but they could start with something like unfunding the war on drugs. The Tea Partiers won't revolt and you can raise some eyebrows in the middle.
  10. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    You could be right. But if there's a cleansing of Tea Party candidates in moderate states like Walsh, Mourdock, King, West, Akin and Bachmann it might raise the eyebrows of the ones that survive. We may get to a point where Tea Partiers who are not from bright red districts will begin to moderate for self preservation.
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    WTF no third party option, BigSoccer joins the "Lame stream media" :p
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  12. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

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    Remember, whatever result we get, we have to unskew it so Obama doesn't look so good.
  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    85% for Obama?

    So it's been true all along ... soccer fans are a bunch of commies
  14. Mr. Warmth

    Mr. Warmth Red Card

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    Gay commies
  15. atomicbloke

    atomicbloke Member+

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    There is a non-negligible probability that some funny business will happen with the voting machines. Some of the electronic machines have no paper trail. It takes a flip of 5 votes per machine to flip a state and consequently the electoral college. It takes less than $30 worth of software to hack the voting machines.

    I make a living in computer security. So I am not just pulling this from my backside.
  16. BimmerBenz95

    BimmerBenz95 Member+

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  17. FormerGermanGuy

    FormerGermanGuy Member

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    I would love to have to choose between two guys who I think would both do a good job for the country.
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  18. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

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    It's not asking who you want to win, it's asking who you think will win. No sane person thinks someone other than Obama or Romney will win.



    Of course Big Soccer does not require sanity as a prerequisite for posting.
  19. TheSlipperyOne

    TheSlipperyOne Member+

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    Just say Knicks. You know you want to.
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  20. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

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    303 (conservatively)

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama take FL and get to 332.
  21. Val1

    Val1 Member+

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    I think Obama will win, but it will closer than I'd hope, and closer than the Red Meat types thought earlier this fall. Which I think will just re-enervate the Obama-hating wing of the GOP for the next couple of years, clear until the 2014 elections. When we will have yet another Obama referendum. I don't have happy thoughts for the next couple of years. Of course, I live in red section of a blue state, so the vehemence I see is depressing.
  22. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

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    I live a half a block away from the house Joe Biden grew up in. The vehemence I hear still surprises me, though it's gone down by half since the weather has gotten colder and the windows are closed so that I no longer hear my neighbor hysterically calling Obama a "lying ____________" (it varies widely) whenever he appears or is mentioned on tv.
  23. chaski

    chaski Moderator Staff Member

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    Do I need a picture ID to vote in this poll?
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  24. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    That username sounds kind of commie so yes.

    Although that avatar is our preferred demographic so maybe no
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  25. ToasterLeavins

    ToasterLeavins Member

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    Wheres the option for Gary Johnson?

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