2013 Roster and Budget

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by troutseth, Jan 4, 2013.

  1. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    As we head into the draft, it is time I do my annual where we stand versus the budget calculation. As always, the disclaimers:

    Disclaimers
    1) This is an estimate. It has proven to be fairly close in the past but since we don't have the salary budget numbers posted (they are not the same as the salary on the union website) there is always a bit of guess in there.
    2) I have to make some assumptions on certain players and the increases they will get year over year. Veterans are guaranteed a small amount but players like Davis and such likely get bigger raises.
    3) I will reference allocation money but the numbers below do not include its use. Remember there are limitations on its use; you can't just apply it to anyone on the team

    Estimate
    We added Brunner and Cummings and saw the departure of Sturgis and and C. Clark, The number is based on assumptions that Camargo and Ching took small pay cuts and that Barnes signed for roughly the same amount. In addition, it accounts for Bruin moving to "on budget."This does not include Andre, Weaver, or Kandji.

    1) We have 16 "on budget" players on the roster provided Deric did not move up
    2) We have 2-4 spots open on the senior roster.
    3) We have up to 3 spots open on the "off budget" roster
    4) I assume Sarkodie stays GA for one more year
    5) My estimate is we have roughly $150,000 -$200,000 remaining on the cap. But again, that is for up to 4 spots.

    Conclusion
    Ok well, this may shed some light on whether we re-sign players like Andre, Kandji, or Weaver. We need to fill at least 2 more spots to be compliant and likely need all 4 spots filled in order to navigate USOC and CCL. Fact is, we have very little money to spend. Now, we do have a large bucket of Allocation ($600,000-$700,000) for next year depending on what we just gave up in trade. Give the rules around its use, I do not see a second DP coming in (only buy down a portion). We could sign a player just under the DP tag and use the allocation against that salary. That would leave us the above money to sign 1-3 more players but they will be low cost (Kandji, Weaver?)

    1) Fact is we have little room to maneuver unless we can sign a non-DP from outside the league using allocation.
    2) We still have to fit draft picks into this mix. If they are at minimum they move to off budget, but if not they could eat cap space (at least our first round might).
    3) I expect very little movement the rest of this off season. We may see Kandji and Weaver re-signed. I would be surprised if anyone is brought in until summer.
    4) The caveat to the above, is if we see one more trade to free up some additional space.
    5) The only way Andre gets re-signed is if he has no other offers, and the league lets us use allocation money. The two do not seem likely.
    6) ONE MORE THOUGHT - we can only add three players (see draft picks) to the off budget roster. But more likely a net addition of one (since if we add all three we lose the free allocation money). That is taken if we land a GA player in round one. That means, we either a) don't expect much from the draft, (b) expect draft picks to hit on budget roster or (c) we may see some of our current crop actually let go (Soto as an example).

    * I moved this to its own thread
    *rey* repped this.


  2. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    Sorry, I need constant breaks from work so I keep coming back to this. After doing the quick analysis, I now know why Rolfe was let go. Frankly, we need the roster spot. As I said above, we have 2-4 "on budget" spots open. But, we only have AT MOST three "off budget" spots open. You can have up to ten off budget players, but that includes your HG and GA guys plus any minimum salary folks.

    We have Creavalle, Deric, Dixon, Marschneider, Ownby, Sarkodie, and Soto. That is seven guys. But here is the kicker; if you don't use the last two spots, you get 35k in allocation for each spot. That means to the team, a player in those spots is really worth 35k plus salary. So you REALLY have to want a player to take up those final two roster spots. By releasing Rolfe, we freed up a spot, most likely for our top draft pick this year. If we end up with a few more draft picks, guys like Soto, Ownby, Dixon are going to have a fight on their hands to beat out the new draftees AND prove they are worth the salary plus loss of allocation money.

    I expect a few more of our younger guys to move on this year.
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  3. The_Ponce

    The_Ponce Co-President of the United States of Dynamo

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    This is the worst part of the season. I hate having to discuss the salary cap. It always leads to some uneasy moments.
  4. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    I like the business side of the equation because it is so different from other businesses. That being said, I agree with the level of unease as it impacts players and individuals. However, I will offer an alternative perspective; this should be one of our favorite times because what Dom has been able to do with little to no cap room has been amazing. This is where our FO magic outshines the rest of the league.


  5. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

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    yeah, i agree with you. tough choices.

    troutseth - good work as always. my wish is that your #s would show the peeps why 5-6 moves an offseason to acquire Wayne Rooney is not always possible. ;)

    if you have your #s and MLS rules decoder in front of you: is my hunch correct that Cam Weaver returns but not Mac Kandji may not?
  6. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    We need at least two more players, but up to four. We have limited money to spend on existing MLS players, but allocation to spend on new MLS players.

    That being said, in regard to Weaver and Kandji they would both fit the bill of low cost depth that can be added within the current budget constraints. That is providing they both want at or below their last contract value. I don't think we can support them if they want raises. My guess is Weaver is on board with that concept, but Kandji wants more. I think you are right in that we only see ONE of those two re-signed. Which one depends on salary demand versus value to the club as seen by Dom since one alone eats roughly half our remaining cap space.

    Here is my supposition, and it is only a guess:
    1) Resign Weaver or Kandji
    2) We see one more trade, either for allocation or we get rid of a more expensive player for a younger one to clear cap space.
    3) We add net two players that make the team through draft (one on budget one off)
    4) If both players added through the draft are off budget, we see one reservist get cut and we sign one more depth player using room made from trade above.
    5) We use allocation money for a foreign signing in summer.
  7. nbrooks503

    nbrooks503 President..............Dom's Disciples

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    So we're not getting Lampard?
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  8. footyfool

    footyfool Member+

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    So in your conversation here, Andre is GONE? Not even a part of the arithmetic? I know we've all been thinking that's a good probability but it sucks nonetheless. I like Andre generally, but I especially like that he plays big in big games. That is a really valuable quality to have in a guy. Someone who steps up under pressure, rather than someone who wilts.
  9. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

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    One question I have is how/why the league would allow the Dynamo to have 3 bonafide offers out to players (weaver, Kandji, Hainault) if it would result in roster non-compliance if they all sign? The easy answer is that you cut a non-guaranteed guy but tying up a lot of players with offers would seem counter to league principles, especially since all contracts are with the league.

    I know there is a roster compliance date so teams have some play but I wonder how much over budget they let them theoretically stand.

    Also, I wonder if they were able to push allocation money to Barnes' deal.
  10. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    Those offers would have been made before Ching, Barnes and Cummings were signed. Also you have until week one to be compliant. They could approve allocation to re-sign Andre as well. We don't know when it comes to allocation.
  11. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    Correct. They could re-sign him if the league allows allocation money. Also they could bring him back with maybe one of Kandji or Weaver. Remember my numbers are estimates. But it seems likely he is gone.
  12. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

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  13. Heft

    Heft BigSoccer Supporter

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    Drogba, I think.
  14. MLSNHTOWN

    MLSNHTOWN Member+

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    I still want Ronaldinho.
    Mix Ronaldinho with the current squad and I think they beat LA.

    ----Cummings----Bruin------
    -----------Ronaldinho-------
    Davis--------------------obg
    -------------Clark--------------
    Ashe---taylor---boswell---sarkodie
    --------Hall----------

    Dom would pull out the one or two hairs he still has on his head at the defensive effort on display by Ronaldinho, but that team would be so much fun to watch.
  15. Levy2k6

    Levy2k6 BigSoccer Supporter

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    Where's the 2013 Two Saint Rumors
  16. The_Ponce

    The_Ponce Co-President of the United States of Dynamo

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    60-90 days
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  17. AcetheTigah

    AcetheTigah Member

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    So if Andre comes back - Kandji's offer is retracted?
  18. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    Hard to tell. It may had had an expiration date on it to begin with. As I said if the league allowed us to use allocation money for Andre it wouldn't impact any other signing. Don't know if they would. Frankly I think the signing of Weaver and Cummings hurts Kandji's chances more.
  19. Heft

    Heft BigSoccer Supporter

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    Kandji has some issues with scoring, but so does Weaver. It must come down to $$, because as a total player, Kandji to me seemed much stronger on defense, and more skilled in the attack.
    jvilla07 repped this.
  20. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    ****UPDATE TO THE ESTIMATED BUDGET******

    Ladies and Gentlemen,
    I have updated my best estimate as to where we stand in regard to the budget. However, I missed a little something (and I think most others did as well.)

    Estimate
    We added Brunner and Cummings and saw the departure of Sturgis and and C. Clark, The number is based on assumptions that Camargo and Ching took small pay cuts and that Barnes signed for roughly the same amount and that Weaver stayed the same or even a bit less. In addition, it accounts for Bruin moving to "on budget."This does not include Andre or Kandji.

    1) We have 17 "on budget" players on the roster provided Deric did not move up
    2) We have 1-3 spots open on the senior roster.
    3) We have up to 3 spots open on the "off budget" roster
    4) I assume Sarkodie stays GA for one more year
    5) My estimate is we have roughly $150,000 remaining on the cap. But again, that is for up to 3 spots. However, I think we have more than that (see below).

    Conclusion and what I missed

    1) I will start with what I missed. We re-signed Davis. MLS allows for the use of Allocation money to re-sign players upon their approval. This is meant for high priority players and assistance in keeping them in the league. While Davis has no outside offers that we know of; he is the face of our team now. It is highly probable that MLS allowed us to use some allocation on his new deal, freeing up money! I am not sure how I missed that tidbit.
    2) We still likely have little room for more additions. I still see it as unlikely we sign a DP since you cannot buy down their total cap hit and we have to add three more players. But it is possible now.
    3) We still have to fit draft picks into this mix. The spot we pick is tough. GA will likely be gone, but the best remaining players may not be at the minimum salary, meaning they are likely on budget players. Could be good cheap and young talent though.
    4) Depending on the draft, I still see little movement the rest of the off season; unless we make a trade.
    5) Andre, in my opinion is still gone. His salary would eat up our remaining cap space unless the league let us use allocation.


    6) ONE MORE THOUGHT - we can only add three players (see draft picks) to the off budget roster. But more likely a net addition of one (since if we add all three we lose the free allocation money). That is taken if we land a GA player in round one. That means, we either a) don't expect much from the draft, (b) expect draft picks to hit on budget roster or (c) we may see some of our current crop actually let go (Soto as an example).
    *rey* repped this.
  21. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

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    troutseth

    great job as usual. you've made me lazy though as i know just now rely on your #s. :D
  22. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    ****SECOND UPDATE TO THE ESTIMATED BUDGET******

    Ladies and Gentlemen,
    I have updated my best estimate as to where we stand in regard to the budget. Upon review of my numbers, discussions I have had, and a better understanding of how many folks we have signed to new deals - I have a new number and am more confident in this one. That being said, it isn't pretty.

    Estimate
    This does not include Andre or Kandji.

    1) We have 18 "on budget" players
    2) We have 2 possible spots open on the senior roster.
    3) We have up to 3 spots open on the "off budget" roster
    4) I assume Sarkodie stays GA for one more year
    5) My estimate is we are roughly $450,000 over the cap. As I said, I feel this is closer to accurate.

    Conclusion and what I missed

    1) It is highly probable that MLS allowed us to use some allocation on Davis' new deal, as well as at least one other player just to get us compliant.
    2) I don't think we can add anyone after the draft minus a trade.
    3) To fill out depth, we will NEED to trade. Of course, our draft pick may actually hit the budget.
    4) We don't have to be compliant to the start of the year so we could sign someone, but if we do I expect a trade.
    5) Allocation money, depending on the trade we made - we could be about out of allocation money to get to a compliant number.
  23. Heft

    Heft BigSoccer Supporter

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    I've heard rumors that Camargo may be going to Palmieras.
  24. troutseth

    troutseth Member+

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    hmmm.....


    It certainly should frame our discussion here a bit differently. Essentially, unless a major trade occurs I don't think we can add anyone now or in the summer after the draft. A Camargo trade would essentially free up 200k or so, which may or may not give us anything depending on how much allocation we actually have and can use.
  25. tex0313

    tex0313 Member

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    i thought i read somewhere that camargo resigned at a lower cap number for 2013

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