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2013 Superdraft

Discussion in 'Colorado Rapids' started by COMtnGuy, Aug 24, 2012.

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  1. Hunt998

    Hunt998 Member

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    I'm a big believer of drafting the best available player in a draft and not worrying about filling roster holes. The odds of a superdraft pick coming in and immediately being the answer at FB or CB are small; better to swing for the fences regardless of position and worst case scenario you have a decent trade piece. Hopefully Braveja's mancation to europe will provide some depth targets, my only worry is that targets from Europe are rarely cheap and the FO's talent evaluation skills are still up for debate, to put it mildly. An Edu on the backline could prove disasterous...
     
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  2. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Lets keep in mind that Outside backs or FB have a terrible draft history in first round. Most players drafted who are now getting minutes are converted college Midfielders. This would be a bad mistake if Rapids choose a FB at #6.

    I don't think one has been drafted in first round in last 2-3 years.

    Ok, researched and here is results: Highest rated FB in last 2 drafts (Polak & Tetteh both GA signings as well) have a total of 1 MLS apperance between them. Only other pure FB in college select was our own Eddie Ababio. The rest were either middies or split time between Mid and outside back.

    2012- Andrew Duran (#15) LB Seattle, Split time in college between Outside Mid and Back. no games played for Sea, Loaned to Atlanta Silverbacks (7 app)
    2012- Tyler Polak (#22 overall, 2nd rnd) FB NE, Highly rated FB, signed to GA deal. 1 App with NE.
    2011- Kofi Sarkodie (#7) FB Hou, another GA guy. Split time in college between Outside Mid and Back. Up and down career so far in MLS. 17 app in 2 years.
    2011- Richard Balchan (#12) FB Columbus, Listed as a Midfielder for Indiana's soccer team. 19 app in 2 years.
    2011- Eddie Ababio (#18) FB COL Rapids, Played FB for North Carolina. 1 app in USOC match for Rapids, no longer in MLS.
    2011- Michael Tetteh (#20, 2nd rnd) FB SEA, Another GA guy- Highest rated FB in2011 draft. No games played in MLS, loaned out twice to lower division sides (total of 6 app)
    2010- Only defender selected in first round was Ike Opara a CB.
    *app= MLS Appreance
     
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  3. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

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    Interesting. Do you suppose that is because teams rarely put their best players at fullback at that level?

    I wonder how good Akron's right back, DeAndre Yedlin, will be. (He's a Seattle home grown.) Akron advanced the ball through him a lot in the two games I saw.
     
  4. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    That would be my best guess, the skills MLS want at FB are more often found in wide Middies.

    Would be interesting to compare to Europe, from my understanding they groom FB at early age but I could be completely wrong (Thinking Philipp Lahm from my time in Germany).
     


  5. WJMarx

    WJMarx BigSoccer Supporter

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    Terrific post. Your research is laudable, thanks.

    Typically, CB's need maturity, field vision and playing experience at their highest level to truly impact a defense. Young players rarely posses these qualities.

    FB's are more of an enigma as technically sound players should emerge earlier with speed and endurance. Often young players claim 1st choice status elsewhere. What is so challenging in MLS that this does not happen?

    This draft has 2 players who may be ready for MLS, Farrell & Zimmerman, both of whom will be gone prior to #6. Based on your statistics even they will be 1st round risks and certainly no other CB/FB should jump to # 6.

    Perhaps some of the developmental issues relate to the complexity of defending. CB's are team players. Their mental abilities may outweigh their athletic ones. Although, FB's share team responsibilities their athleticism dominates the position. DM's & other holding mids share this need for high mentation, whereas, others rely more on individual brilliance with team, the play of others, impacting them less. Perhaps, young strikers, wingers & other wide midfielders are more likely to join the 1st choice ranks earlier.

    Finally, with the possible exception of YNT graduates, no players joining the pro ranks from either USA youth or USA college ranks have ever played with against pro quality teamates or opponents. Their coaching likely has been mediocre. If they truly loved the ball their individual skills may preempt their playing abilities. However, their technical skill and innate athleticism have projected them to "elite" status. For most USA youth, soccer remains a taught sport where elsewhere it is a learned one.
     
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  6. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Sorry, should of said this is FB only research.

    CB Would be other way, with several guys getting lots of minutes right out of chute. I will do that if we move into top 3 where we might have a chance at them.
     
  7. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

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    Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like we already have a lot of high-risk, high-reward guys on the team. I don't know enough about Manneh specifically to say whether he'd be worth picking up if we jettisoned one of those other HR-HR guys, but I'd personally like to see us trying to acquire more dependable guys than streaky ones.

    I agree with your point about not drafting a lower-tier CB/FB with the #6 if they will be available for our 2nd pick. And you're right that Farrell and Zimmerman are likely to be gone before our pick, but it seems like every year one or two guys slip inexplicable down in the draft order after the Combine. You never know till the day of the draft.
     
  8. spot

    spot Member+

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    The combine increasingly seems like a relic that was necessary when MLS started, but tells us less and less about players.

    I'd love to go for the fun of it, but players with a future can only be hurt by the process.
     
  9. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Just wondering who is on your list here. To me we seem to have mostly Med Risk/ Avg Reward types.

    Omar when drafted in 2007 (Univ of Cincinnati) is a perfect example, he had speed that few defenders could handle. But did lagged in touch and technical ability, if he harnesses those he is top forward. If he can't he is scrap heap candidate. Thus we go lucky and his great years of 2009 & 2010.
     
  10. WJMarx

    WJMarx BigSoccer Supporter

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    Who are these high risk/high reward players to whom you allude? IMO there are no high risk/high reward players on the Rapids. There are high risk/moderate or low reward ones. The is even 1 low risk/high reward player Rivero.
     
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  11. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Look at top rated Defender Prospects
    Seniors only (Farrell and Zimmerman not listed)
    http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer-articles/mls-prospects:-defenders_aid28268
    Three of the last five MLS Rookie of the Year awards have been claimed by defenders. Could the next Sean Franklin or Austin Berry be found in this draft class?

    GA Signed list per Ives story:
    Kekuta Manneh- Forward, High School
    J.J. Johnson- Forward, VCU
    Andrew Farrell- CB, Louisville
    Walker Zimmerman- CB, Furman

    Indiana forward Eriq Zavaleta and UConn goalkeeper Andre Blake are back in the conversation and could wind up signing with MLS.
    http://www.soccerbyives.net/2012/12...-players-to-sign-generation-adidas-deals.html
     
  12. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

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    I suppose that's a fairer assessment. I was perhaps being too kind to the players we have. For clarity, I was considering your assessment of "risk" purely in footballing terms, ignoring the contracts. I'm not thrilled about the team taking on a lot of footballing risk at this time, when unreliability (with the offense, the finishing; the midfield, the spacing and support; with the defense, the mental mistakes) was such a major problem last year.

    As for the list, I put Cummings, Buddle, Castrillon, Harris, and Cascio in the high-risk/med-to-low reward category because of their inconsistency. I put O'Neill and Klute in the high-risk, high-reward category because we seem to be banking on them to become the future, already, without him hardly playing any pro minutes, but I like the potential. I put Rivero in the med-risk/high-reward category because of his lack of defensive effort.
     
  13. WJMarx

    WJMarx BigSoccer Supporter

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    In my view, unless 1 or both of these Colorado boys truly lights it up at the Combine they will likely be available at #25, maybe #30. At best, they will go beyween 18 & 25, discipline should help the Rapids from reaching for them at #6!

    The top 2 defenders, Farrell & Zimmerman will be gone by #6. Rapids need to get creative and take a risk by selecting Manneh, Powers, Lopez.
     
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  14. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Ives tries again, not sure I see Toronto taking 2 more CB, can't miss or not, with Boss just picked up too.

    http://www.soccerbyives.net/2012/12/sbi-2013-mls-mock-draft-version-2-0.html

    6- COLORADO RAPIDS
    *#DeShorn Brown, Central Florida, Forward (Jamaica)
    The Rapids acquisition of Edson Buddle might make it easier for the Rapids to go in another direction with this pick, but adding a speed option up top like Brown makes sense for what Oscar Pareja wants to do. A 4-3-3 with Brown, Buddle and Omar Cummings could be pretty scary. If you’re looking for someone similar to Darren Mattocks in this draft, Brown is that player.
     
  15. 22SteveD

    22SteveD Moderator Staff Member

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    Not to mention the re- entry CB Califf from Chivas. Still no chance at zim or Farrell unless we trade up.
     
  16. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    A look at draft slots over last 5 years.
    Confirms how much more successful top 10 picks are (80% played minutes in 2012), although I wish it was broken down for each draft year and 1-5 & 6-10 slots too.

    http://www.thedailywiz.com/2012/12/...rdraft-work-looking-at-picks-21-30-since-2007

    Final Assessment

    On the whole, 115 players selected in the first 38 picks from the 2007-2012 SuperDrafts played in the 2012 MLS Regular Season. Their performance in the league directly related to where they were picked in the SuperDraft:
    [​IMG]
    The bars measure the total number of players who logged any minutes in the 2012 MLS Regular Season, the graph measures the average Castrol Index Ranking of those players who logged any minutes. The Castrol Index attempts to quantify the productivity and efficiency of a player while they are on the field, and does take into account the total number of minutes played. While the Castrol Ranking does have its drawbacks, it is a fair method of taking a broad assessment of performance from a group of players.
    The higher a player was picked, the more likely they are to have played in the league this past year. The Castrol Index discovers an interesting wrinkle in that after the top 10 picks, the performance of players between picks 11-38 is largely the same.
    Compare this to the NFL draft, where a study by Niners Nation found that "as the NFL draft proceeds, there's a steep decline from the expected performance of the 1st pick to that of the 65th; but after that there's only a gradual decline over the next 200 picks." While there are more players and positions in the NFL, a comparable expectation of performance from MLS would greatly exceed the 10 or so spots we are seeing.
    More recent picks are more likely to play in MLS as well, but older players are more likely to have performed better aside from the bust year of 2007.

    Draft Year Total Playing in MLS 2012 Avg. Castrol Ranking
    2007 13 256
    2008 13 194
    2009 18 215
    2010 24 254
    2011 22 235
    2012 25 275

    This last chart is not surprising. The average career of a soccer player can be short. Older players have been assessed longer, had more opportunities for injuries, foreign contracts, or other life decisions and therefore less likely to be playing in MLS. Still, it is notable that less than half of the assessed 2009 SuperDraft picks played in the 2012 regular season.

    These two charts do not take into account the players like Tim Ream or Mo Edu that have opted to play in an overseas league of equal or better quality to MLS. The number of players who fall into this category is very small compared to the 228 players assessed.
    In the end, the value of SuperDraft is murky. Managers like Bruce Arena and Peter Vermes have used the draft to create a core of young players which has led to their recent success. Other managers have seen little impact from their drafted players, either by poor decision-making or by choice, and would possibly see their prospects for success improved without a draft. Some may argue the SuperDraft is not as much a murky problem as it is a symptom of the college/pro disconnect, and that managers are doing their best in assessing players that play limited minutes in the NCAA system. That is an argument for a different time.
    The 2013 MLS SuperDraft will be held on January 17.
    Unless you have a top 10 pick or Bruce Arena is your coach, don't expect much from the player you drafted.
     
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    Interesting that they looked at the last 5 drafts, which conveniently leaves them short of the 2007 draft where the Rapids cleaned up. I think that last line should be:

    Unless you have a top 10 pick or Bruce Arena [or John Murphy] is your coach, don't expect much from the player you drafted.
     
  18. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Actually 2007 is in there, 2007 through 2012, my bad saying 5 years should of been past 6 years. If you go look at detail it shows you player from each slot and who was best pick of slot during this time.
     
  19. Big Chil in Denver

    Big Chil in Denver Member

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  20. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    Best One
    #5 Ciaran O'Brien (Rapids) is our first clear-cut bust to this point. O'Brien played just 19 minutes in MLS, but he packed a lifetime into them--drawing a red card, getting choked by Landon Donovan, and injuring Carlos Ruiz for a month. Think of that last part as you wish.
     
  21. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

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    Wait...before even getting to how patently ridiculous it is to base a performance inquiry on Castrol Index numbers...Castrol Index didn't even apply to MLS until 2011. Are we really using one or two years of data that evaluates "quality" to evaluate 6 years' worth of players, and pretending it allows for anything approaching objective conclusions? Are we pretending that, for the guys who had good seasons in the years before the Castrol Index, those seasons don't count?

    Or am I completely misunderstanding?
     
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  22. COMtnGuy

    COMtnGuy Member+

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    It's there but I was ignoring it. ;)

    For me players seeing field in 2012 is much more telling. 80% of players selected 1-10 played league game in 2012, call it 52.5% selected 11-20 did so (thats almost a 50% wash out rate for 6 years of drafting).

    On the whole, 115 players selected in the first 38 picks from the 2007-2012 SuperDrafts played in the 2012 MLS Regular Season.

    So out of 228 players drafted (first 38 picks) from 2007-2012, only 115 played a league game in 2012.
     
  23. 22SteveD

    22SteveD Moderator Staff Member

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    Shows you how much improvement is still to be had from scouting. Or maybe a call on talent US is putting out is below what can be brought in.
     
  24. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

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    Which is an interesting number to look at, but at the same time it's hard to draw any "wash out" conclusions from, because it ignores that there are players drafted in the last year or two by their teams that are still with those teams, but haven't had opportunities to play a league game yet. They haven't risen up the depth chart, but they also haven't washed out, either.
     
  25. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

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    So, maybe hold off on counting the 2012 draftees? If a 2011 draftee hadn't made it into a game in 2011 or 2012, that seems bad. Are there that many draftees who've sat their first two years and turned out to be contributors?

    Though maybe we also look at more than just played/never played and set a couple levels of games played. That's a lot more work, though.
     
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