Bet365 Probabilities of Promotion After 2010-2011 League Championship Season

Discussion in 'League Championship' started by EvanJ, Jul 23, 2010.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Manchester United FC
    United States
    Using my formula for converting odds into probabilities found at my blog on BigSoccer and the fact that three clubs get promoted, here are the Bet365 probabilities of promotion:

    Middlesbrough: 37.5%
    Nottingam Forest: 27.0%
    Queens Park Rangers: 23.4%
    Burnley: 23.4%
    Reading: 21.1%
    Ipswich: 15.6%
    Leicester: 15.6%
    Cardiff: 15.6%
    Sheffielf United: 14.1%
    Leeds United: 12.8%
    Bristol City: 12.8%
    Hull City: 10.8%
    Norwich: 10.0%
    Portsmouth: 10.0%
    Swansea: 10.0%
    Derby County: 7.0%
    Preston North End: 7.0%
    Barnsley: 4.4%
    Doncaster: 4.4%
    Millwall: 4.4%
    Coventry: 4.4%
    Watford: 3.2%
    Crystal Palace: 3.2%
    Scunthorpe: 2.1%

    The mean probability of promotion is 3/24 = 12.5%.

  2. Eagle Eye

    Eagle Eye Member

    May 29, 2008
    Must put a few quid on Palace.

    As far as QPHAHA third favourites to go up, somebody is having a laugh, not even one of their owners wants them to go up.

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