Fiscal Cliff Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by JohnR, Nov 9, 2012.

  1. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Give it a shot!

    I predict abject failure. I don't see Republicans agreeing to an increase in taxes on the wealthy. That is their Ground Zero, the single most important item to the GOP. And the deal cannot be that others pay higher taxes but not the top 2%, nor can it be on spending cuts only.

    The only possible victory I see is if both sides suck it up, share the heat equally for raising middle class taxes, and agree on a phased-in expiration of the Bush tax cuts, along with phased-in spending cuts. (Phased-in so as not to shock the economy.) I am not optimistic about this, because both sides spent the campaign promising the middle class that their taxes would not be raised, that the deficit instead would be fixed by magic potions. So the two parties will be hit hard by a backlash if they demonstrate their promises to be false.

    But ... maybe.


  2. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    One thing I can predict is that Obama will not be offering the 10 to 1 deal they all declined during the primaries
    bigredfutbol repped this.
  3. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

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    I predict and hope for abject failure. The economy has strengthened enough and short term pain be damned, we need to pay this bill. And I don't think this cliff is anywhere near as high or steep as the MSM is playing it. (much like their self-serving horserace bullshit narrative...)
  4. cleansheetbsc

    cleansheetbsc Member+

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  5. MattR

    MattR Member

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    Oh God yes. Working in Northern Virginia, I say 200,000 less defense contractors is a good start.

    And the "Fiscal Cliff" doesn't even include any cuts - it just reduces the increases YoY.

    USA! USA! USA!
  6. chaski

    chaski Moderator Staff Member

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    Sequestration and tax hikes de-linked.
    Sequester postponed til Spring.
    No tax deal until January. After Bush tax cuts expire, Republicans are free to act rationally without violating the Grover Norquist pledge. Rates on top earners go to whatever % Obama says. Other rates back to Bush %.
    New Erskine-Bowles Commission appointed, as well as "Tax Reform" Commission.


    [​IMG]
  7. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

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    Aside: I have that print.
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  8. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays This is your world.

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    I think they'll all stick to their guns, and we'll go over the "fiscal cliff" with no sort of solution.
  9. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    I see the nation moving
    [​IMG]
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  10. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    Where are those "scientists" now, who claimed there was something like "evolution"?

    If there was something like "evolution" wouldnt it make America just grow wings to fly down the cliff?
  11. NMMatt

    NMMatt Member+

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    One of two things:

    A. We go off it. The very serious people who got the election completely wrong wail and nash their teeth, the stock market drops, the Republicans raise holy hell on television, and then a deal is made between 25% of the Republican House, the Democratic House, the Democratic Senate minus a few Blue Dogs and the President to restore a good portion of the spending and all of the tax cuts apart from the upper income. No real harm to the economy results.

    B. The Democrats fold and we kick the can down the road another year or two.
    dapip and bigredfutbol repped this.
  12. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

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    I just wanted to type "fiscal cliff".
  13. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Kinda my thought too. Although realistically, this does need to be phased. The cuts are too large, the shock will be too great.

    One thing that will come out of the Fiscal Cliff discussion is how many lefties are like you and me -- fiscal conservatives. I wouldn't be surprised if the left is more fiscally conservative than the Tea Party, in fact I think it likely.
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  14. ElasticNorseman

    ElasticNorseman Member+

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    My prediction is that whatever happens, Schapes will declare it to be an Obama failure.
  15. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    yes, because I don't hear it enough on NPR.
  16. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    that's a pretty solid prediction. though you're not exactly going out on a limb there.
  17. ElasticNorseman

    ElasticNorseman Member+

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    yeah, it was the low-hanging fruit.
  18. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    honestly though I think both sides will compromise.
    there is more to be gained for both sides by doing so.
  19. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

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    It was the fruit already rotting on the ground!

    I know what I think should be done, but if we're supposed to predict what will really happen I don't have much. I'd be really surprised if this all gets settled by Jan. 1, that's for sure.

    I'll go out on a limb and say they will stop the AMT from hitting tens of millions more people next year. Nobody likes that shit.
  20. argentine soccer fan

    argentine soccer fan Moderator Staff Member

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    My prediction: Everybody will yell bloody murder, the TV/radio pundits and bloggers will have a field day and the partisans will stress out in hatred for the other side. And in the end Congress will raise taxes on those who make over 250K on a given year, they will keep the Bush tax cuts for everybody else, and they will write enough pork into the bill to offset a huge chunk of the revenue they get from the additional taxes. And the whole thing will be temporary, with another fiscal cliff hanger coming in a couple of year.
    minerva repped this.
  21. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

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  22. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator Staff Member

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    Well, the world is going to end on Dec 21, so I predict nothing will happen. :D
  23. Footer Phooter

    Footer Phooter Member

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    We've been told that if we actually go off of the cliff, we're going to get furloughed for several weeks. So I'm not rooting for that.
  24. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

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    If the GOP wants to try and breathe some life into the bloated corpse of their party, a good start would be for Boehner and company to come out and tell Grover Norquist to take a flying ******** at a rolling donut.

    Now, I doubt that will happen, but agreeing to tax increases for the wealthy as part of a comprehensive debt reduction plan would be a good start. Agreeing to a complete overhaul of the tax code would be better.

    I'm not going to hold my breath, though.
  25. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    That and getting politically correct on immigration reform are jobs #1 and #2. Only fanatics take pledges. The GOP needs to decide on whether it will be a minority party that elates fanatics, or the chance of being a majority party that might not always enthrall the hard core.

    By the way, the GOP truly is the minority party ... it gathered 1 million fewer votes in the House races than did the Dem party, but retained the majority of seats due to gerrymandering. So don't be thinking it won a true majority in the House, not on people voting it did not.

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