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Fiscal Cliff Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by JohnR, Nov 9, 2012.

  1. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

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    See can, kick can
     
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  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20523750

    I don't think buffet is right, I agree we need more revenues, but to 18+% of GDP, I personally think that is too much.

    Also isn't 18.5 still less than 21? I guess he is ok with buying up T-bills.

    http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=e48ef0af-deec-4d4c-98b1-57dd2092a79a

    So maybe the media are making too much of this thing.

    Maybe Congress not agreeing on something won't be that bad.

    I mean taxes go up and we need that, spending goes down and we need that.

    The only issue is would the economy also slow down or collapse, I guess Buffet does not think so
     
  3. SgtSchultz

    SgtSchultz Member

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    Cut military spending 10%.
    Eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.
    Eliminate the social security cap.

    I just solved the crisis.
     
  4. Barbara

    Barbara Where is Rickon?

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    I swear to all that is good and holy that I will cut a bitch if they do away with the mortgage interest deduction. I just bought my first house last year!
     


  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Some interesting numbers here on why not to fear the cliff.

    Not sure how reliable the site and their numbers are.

    But according to them, Buffet is right on the Revenue part, they just have a lower expenditure target.

     
  6. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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  7. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

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    We just sold ours one month ago Monday (but who's counting?). It's only because of those deductions that we wound up not actually losing money (as it was, we basically rented from the bank for eight years and upon selling got back the equivalent of a security deposit of $1100 or so. Without those deductions, it would've been a loss. Not a disaster, but the sort of thing that I would have routinely bitched about to the point where people started to avoid me.
     
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  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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  9. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator Staff Member

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    Fewer ;)

    Living in NoVA, I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I realize that cutting large numbers of defense contractors would deal our local economy a severe blow. On the other hand, I ********ing hate the smug assholes who've gotten wealthy or damn near it off of the endless stream of federal money only to build themselves McMansions in gated communities, and voting GOP to put a stop to government waste and welfare.

    Granted, that's not all of them--I know some pretty good people who are working for solidly middle-class salaries after putting in 20 years serving their country and I've no beef with them. But I was at a party hosted by the parents of one of my son's school friends. Nice people themselves, but most of the other guests were fellow Defense Industry types. Smug, self-satisfied assholes smoking on 20 dollar cigars and trading stock tips and just generally behaving as if they're all self-made entreprenuers instead of favored beneficiaries of a system that's fueled by taxes harvested from pathetic schmucks like me.

    But I'm not bitter.
     
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  10. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Income tax receipts at a 60 year low, corporate tax receipts at a 60 year low, Obama's suggestion is for status quo on tax receipts (aside from incomes above $250k) and the Republicans would like lower rates if possible.

    Got it.
     
  11. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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  12. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    but in 15 or 30 years, it would have been yours. whereas if you rent, you'll always be paying someone else. I get the good logic beyond home ownership. unfortunately in our current housing market, a house becomes a ball and chain that keeps you from being geographically mobile. plus, it's a pain in the balls during a divorce.
     
  13. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Expenditures as a % of GDP are down since 2010. We're fine on that front assuming the economy is healthy, except for the big asterisk of Medicare.

    And yeah, LBJ, Ronnie, and W were the deficit Presidents of my lifetime. Daddy Bush really wasn't. His numbers look bad because Reagan left him a recession shortly after leaving office, but Daddy was trying to do the right thing while President.
     
  14. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

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    The thing is, even if you own, you're still on the hook for property tax, HOA/condo fees where applicable and various maintenance/upkeep/repair stuff that landlords cover for rentals. Combine that with the illiquidity/immobility issues you mention, plus various transaction costs, the financial advantage of homeownership isn't crystal clear.
     
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  15. Quayle

    Quayle Member

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    Who controlled the purse strings?
     
  16. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    That is what people complain about, supposedly there would be lower spending when taxes were increased, but Republicans kept spending on the military and democrats on government programs. So as usual when you raise taxes, spending usually goes up with it.
     
  17. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

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    The guy with veto power.
     
  18. Barbara

    Barbara Where is Rickon?

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    Yep, the renting vs owning thing is entirely dependent on one's individual circumstances, not least of which is location.

    There's no way on earth that I could have afforded to buy anything decent in the DC area in a neighborhood I wanted to live in. But I could afford to rent an apartment in an otherwise very tony area of Arlington (Lyon Village/Clarendon) where I got all the benefits of the location without the $3000 house payment.

    Here in PDX, where housing is far more affordable (but not as affordable as it should be) the decision to buy is much easier. (Even though I'm not in an ideal area, I'm still in a nicer neighborhood than I would have been able to afford in DC.)
     
  19. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    The same happens when you lower taxes, which is why Republicans are worse for the deficit than are Democrats.
     
  20. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    As someone that has worked in residential construction I can tell you that the upkeep over 30 years can really become astronomical unless you just neglect the property and don't mind living in a dump. I've never heard of a renter spending $5K for new windows or new siding.

    Especially those of you that bought homes that were built in the Clinton and George W boom years are going to be in for a harsh reality check in another 10-15 years.
     
  21. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    I know what you mean about property taxes. my parents have figured out that they can't retire in NYC even if the house is completely paid off because on the reduced retirement income, they wouldn't be able to pay the property taxes which keep going up.
     
  22. minerva

    minerva Member+

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    yeah, I know that too. I bought a house 3 years ago, and 2 months into it, the furnace went out - that's a $1500 job right there. and it seemed like it was never ending. the hot water heater also had to be replaced a year later - and I wasn't even living in the house at the time, and still had to pay for it! (my ex was...).
     
  23. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Reality check already arrived, I spent $40k for a new roof on a house built in 2006.
     
  24. fatbastard

    fatbastard Member+

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    I was working in construction in Fairfax Station Va (a relatively high-end area) in the mid/late 80s for a little while. They'll be lucky if those poorly constructed McMansions are still standing by then :)
     
  25. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Real estate developers are like Wall Streeters. Big money in the boom years, then they disappear if you need them.
     

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