Discussion in 'USA Men' started by yankeeRoyal, Feb 2, 2013.
2) Costa Rica
I thought you predicted that the USA were going to finish 4th in the Hex?
Upon reflection.......I couldn't see Jamaica Panama or Honduras being better than us over ten games. Got a prediction?
3. Costa Rica
I'll go with Bimmer's order:
1. Mexico (20 or 21 points)
2. USA (between 16-18 points)
3. Costa Rica (13-15 points)
4. Panama (10-13 points)
5. Honduras (10-12 points)
6. Jamaica (7-11 points)
#2. Costa Rica
#4. (tie) Panama & USA
To end up in 4th, we'd likely need to get less than 12 or 13 points. That's a record of 4-7-0, 3-4-3, 2-2-6, or 1-0-9. None of those scenarios seem very likely.
For example a 3-4-3 record could mean losing both games to Mexico (certainly possible), then going 3-0-1 at home and 0-2-2. The home record seems possible; the loss to Mexico and then the hiccup tie. However only getting 2 points on the road seems unlikely. I think there's a pretty good chance we win at least one game on the road.
Which of our previous games under Klinsmann instilled all this confidence in you?
1) USA 30 WWWWWWWWWW
2) Mexico 22 WDLWWWLWWW
2) Honduras 15 LDDDWLLWWW
4) Costa Rica 10 LLWDLWLLLW
5) Jamaica 9 LWLWLLLWLL
3) Panama 8 WLDLLLWDLL
Say we go 3-1-1 at home, losing to Mexico and letting one game slip into a draw.
That would be 10 points from home games. To get to 13 we would need to draw 3 on the road, assuming we dont win on the road.
The sooner we get that road win under our belt.....
I was doing the math for 12, but your last point is a good one. If we win in Honduras, we're in really good shape for the rest of the hex. We could go 3-1-1 at home and we'd still have 13 points. Any other road points would be gravy.
I think the US will go 3W-2D-0L at home for 11 points. Then we will get at least 1 win and 2 ties on the road for 5 more points. Minimum 16 points. That's how I get to my range of 16-18 points and 2nd place, in my prior post of this thread.
I don't know points, but I think a point will come when the Kaptain is on bended knee begging our Soccer Jesus, Donovan, to suit up to save our bacon....with that kind of role, Donovan will show up.
Comments are outpacing predictions. :-(
I need ten predictions (or more) for a large enough sample size.
I'm going with:
4) Jamaica (who subsequently defeat New Zealand for the play-in spot)
5) Honduras (lose the 4th spot on GD or something to Jamaica)
4. Costa Rica
Maybe its just wishful thinking, but I think if we can split the home and home with Mexico, we can at least tie the hex. There is no reason that we should drop any points at home other than the Mexico game. It could happen, but I really don't see it happening. For the road games, there is also no reason that Mexico won't have the same troubles that we would have on the road in central america. Playing on the road in central america and Jamaica is tough. Mexico isn't just going to role over these teams on the road, they will have to get hard fought wins.
Anyway, I think we tie the hex, while they win on goal differential since they usually score more goals than we do. I think Honduras is a pretty solid #3, while Costa Rica is an unchallenged #4. I think Jamaica and Panama will have trouble getting any points on the road, while I think both teams will only get about 5 or 6 points at home.
I believe that CONCACAF's 4th place plays South America's 4th place.
Nope, its Oceania's top team, likely New Zealand but could also be someone like Tahiti, who actually won the OFC Championship and qualified for the Confed Cup this time around.
FIFA says Oceania. ESPN says CONMEBAL.
Usually I'd accept the governing body's website......but it is FIFA we're talking about. Cheers.
ESPN also says Oceania. The listing of CONMEBAL in that article was a mistake-the 4th place finisher will be playing the winner in the OFC.
By the time we stagger into fourth place, we will always have been at war with Eurasia.....
New Zealand and New Caledonia are the only countries who can win the OFC group.
I see, I hadn't done research on how far in their WCQ was. Thanks for the update.
Looks like its very likely going to be NZ.
1. Mexico: 24 pts, +19, -6 (+13)
2. Costa Rica: 16pts, +13, -11 (+2)
3. USA: 16 pts, +11, -10 (+1)
4. Jamaica: 14pts, +7, -12 (-5)
5. Honduras: 9pts, +13, -16 (-3)
6. Panama: 4pts, +6, -15 (-9)
USA 1 Mexico 1
USA 2 Jamaica 0
USA 1 Panama 1
USA 2 Costa Rica 1
USA 3 Honduras 2
USA 1 Honduras 1
USA 0 costa Rica 2
USA 0 Panama 0
USA 1 jamaica 0
USA 0 Mexico 2
Mexico 3 Panama 0
Mexico 2 Jamaica 0
Mexico 2 Honduras 0
Mexico 2 Costa Rica 1
Mexico 2 Panama 0
Mexico 1 jamaica 1
Mexico 2 Honduras 2
Mexico 2 costa Rica 1
costa Rica 1 Panama 0
costa Rica 2 Jamaica 0
costa Rica 1 Honduras 0
Costa Rica 2 Panama 0
Costa Rica 1 jamaica 1
Costa Rica 1 Honduras 2
Honduras 2 Panama 1
Honduras 1 Jamaica 1
Honduras 2 Panama 2
Honduras 1 jamaica 2
Jamaica 1 Panama 1
jamaica 1 Panama 0
Separate names with a comma.