MLS Attendance Analysis 2014: Week 2

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    New number out of Portland this week, increase of 140 over their previous high. Seattle I think drew a few less than expected for this match. Chivas drew less than match 2 of last year but are still up on last season for now, it will be interesting to see how the swan song/lame duck plays out in LA.

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:
    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column
    18801 is the max
    13756 is the min
    5045 is the difference
    To calculate the derived value for 2011
    Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932.
    Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
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  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Last Week:
    And that was week 2. 8 matches all over the weekend with everything looking good with the exception of the Goats. San Jose had its last first kick at Buck Shaw barring something very unexpected with construction of the new digs. This is amazingly their 7th season at the BS. WOW!


    Home Team
    Attendance
    Philadelphia 18651
    Red Bull New York 20542
    Seattle 38441
    Houston 18245
    Kansas City 19431
    San Jose 10525
    Portland 20814
    CD Chivas USA 6684
    Total 153333
    Average 19167

    This Week:
    We get our first 9 match week of the season, but because of CCL they will all be on the weekend again. Things start in Foxborough with the Revs hosting Vancouver in their home opener. Then it is off to Salt Lake for an early rematch between RSL and the Galaxy. Next is Montreal hosting Seattle, and Toronto welcoming DC. Columbus debuts their new video board when the Union come to visit the Crew, then its back to the Rockies when Colorado opens against Portland. Kansas City hosts San Jose, and FC Dallas wraps up Saturday night when the Goats come calling. Finally on Sunday Chicago plays home match 250 against the Red Bulls.
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  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Season Stats:
    Remember in the count columns everything above the 15k cell is a subset of the 15k number, and likewise everything below the 10k is a subset of that. Not that most of this matters this early, and practically nothing is gleaned from it, it is best to get into posting form early. We are 8 matches or 2.5% of the way through this season.


    Season Stats
    Totals …… Threshold Count Percent
    Played 16 …… >=50000 0 0.0%
    Total 322372 …… >=30000 2 12.5%
    Average 20148 …… >=20000 8 50.0%
    Median 19987 …… >=15000 12 75.0%
    Maximum 39240 …… <10000 2 12.5%
    Minimum 6684 …… <7500 1 6.3%
    Deviation 8661 …… <5000 0 0.0%
  4. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    AAQ Data:
    Hmm well I guess I am still in preseason form. This season is starting much better than this point last season. We are still off the 2012 pace but we did not walk off a cliff like the beginning of last season. I think things are going to rebound quite nicely.


    Historical
    Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date Games
    1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 7 9/22 160
    1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 15 9/28 160
    1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 16 9/27 192
    1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 17 10/10 192
    2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 18 9/9 192
    2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 13 9/9 158
    2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 9 9/22 140
    2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 12 10/26 150
    2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 64 79 70 36 250 10 10/17 150
    2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 14 10/16 192
    2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 67 66 54 72 258 11 10/15 192
    2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 4 10/21 195
    2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 6 10/26 210
    2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 8 10/25 225
    2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 5 10/16 240
    2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 18 12 11 22 63 3 10/23 306
    2012 18801 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/28 323
    2013 18608 18359 5.6% 32.5% 4 1 11 0 16 2 10/20 323
    Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date Games



    Current
    Average Median <10k >20k
    Avg
    Pts

    Med
    Pts

    <10k
    Pts

    >20k
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date Games
    1996 32229 27126 12.5% 87.5% 0 0 42 0 42 1 4/20 8
    1997 20599 14862 12.5% 37.5% 65 87 42 64 257 13 4/5 8
    1998 15993 14841 10.0% 20.0% 91 87 33 86 297 16 3/29 10
    1999 15912 16191 20.0% 20.0% 91 77 67 86 321 17 3/28 10
    2000 14448 13005 20.0% 20.0% 99 100 67 86 352 18 3/26 10
    2001 18072 17105 0.0% 25.0% 79 71 0 80 230 8 4/14 8
    2002 19959 15214 0.0% 28.6% 69 84 0 75 228 7 3/30 7
    2003 17304 20816 28.6% 57.1% 83 45 95 39 262 14 4/19 7
    2004 18990 20356 28.6% 71.4% 74 48 95 21 238 10 4/10 7
    2005 14353 13071 30.0% 10.0% 100 100 100 99 398 19 4/9 10
    2006 19286 19860 0.0% 50.0% 72 51 0 48 172 2 4/8 10
    2007 17731 17303 0.0% 20.0% 81 70 0 86 237 9 4/14 10
    2008 17183 17396 0.0% 30.0% 84 69 0 73 226 6 4/5 10
    2009 15872 15895 0.0% 9.1% 92 80 0 100 271 15 3/28 11
    2010 17806 18425 8.3% 33.3% 81 62 28 69 239 11 4/3 12
    2011 20520 19385 0.0% 46.7% 66 55 0 52 172 3 3/26 15
    2012 21304 19426 6.3% 43.8% 61 55 21 56 192 4 3/18 16
    2013 18230 18119 12.5% 43.8% 78 64 42 56 240 12 3/10 16
    2014 20148 19987 12.5% 50.0% 68 51 42 48 208 5 3/16 16
    Current Average Median <10k >20k
    Avg
    Pts

    Med
    Pts

    <10k
    Pts

    >20k
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date Games
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  5. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Comparison To Last Season and All-Time:
    Kind of early for the change from last season to mean much, but comparisons to all time numbers tell a bit of a story. We should have a pretty good picture going by April 1st, but early numbers suggest this will be similar to 2012 in final numbers, though the Sub 10k will run high if only because of Chivas.


    Team
    Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/-
    Chicago 0 0 0 15569 0.0% 0.0%
    CD Chivas USA 2 7502 6961 14638 7.8% -48.7%
    Colorado 0 0 0 14211 0.0% 0.0%
    Columbus 0 0 0 15238 0.0% 0.0%
    DC United 1 13840 17072 16774 -18.9% -17.5%
    FC Dallas 1 18011 18075 12517 -0.4% 43.9%
    Houston 2 20283 18224 18168 11.3% 11.6%
    Los Angeles 1 25634 20124 22137 27.4% 15.8%
    Montréal 0 0 0 21688 0.0% 0.0%
    New England 0 0 0 15466 0.0% 0.0%
    Philadelphia 1 18651 18160 18330 2.7% 1.8%
    Portland 2 20744 20674 19980 0.3% 3.8%
    Red Bull NY 1 20542 22022 17366 -6.7% 18.3%
    Real Salt Lake 0 0 0 17380 0.0% 0.0%
    San Jose 1 10525 10525 12848 0.0% -18.1%
    Seattle 2 38841 39574 38797 -1.9% 0.1%
    Sporting KC 1 19431 19868 12378 -2.2% 57.0%
    Toronto FC 0 0 0 19614 0.0% 0.0%
    Vancouver 1 21000 21000 19975 0.0% 5.1%
    Overall 16 20148 18230 16263 10.5% 23.9%
    Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/-


    The second table is more focused on this particular match number for each team. Recent is the most recent home attendance, current is the current season average, average and median are the teams average and median for this game number, and finally running average is where each team would be on average through this point of the season.


    Team
    Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/-
    Chicago 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    CD Chivas USA 6684 7502 12685 12597 14434 -47.3% -46.9% -48.0%
    Colorado 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Columbus 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    DC United 13840 13840 21836 20413 21836 -36.6% -32.2% -36.6%
    FC Dallas 18011 18011 15428 15560 15428 16.7% 15.8% 16.7%
    Houston 18245 20283 17923 18007 18815 1.8% 1.3% 7.8%
    Los Angeles 25634 25634 28284 26076 28284 -9.4% -1.7% -9.4%
    Montréal 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    New England 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Philadelphia 18651 18651 22674 18833 22674 -17.7% -1.0% -17.7%
    Portland 20814 20744 19913 20438 19913 4.5% 1.8% 4.2%
    Red Bull NY 20542 20542 23270 21523 23270 -11.7% -4.6% -11.7%
    Real Salt Lake 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    San Jose 10525 10525 14802 12254 14802 -28.9% -14.1% -28.9%
    Seattle 38441 38841 35854 36204 36270 7.2% 6.2% 7.1%
    Sporting KC 19431 19431 14551 13263 14551 33.5% 46.5% 33.5%
    Toronto FC 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Vancouver 21000 21000 21531 21000 21531 -2.5% 0.0% -2.5%
    Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/-


    Milestones:
    One, San Jose hosted home match 250, through which they have 3,209,758 people, they are the 9th team to do so, and they drew more than only FC Dallas and Kansas City.

    Team Centric Thread is here

    @aperfectring the thread is ready for your updates.
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2014
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  6. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    These ratings are very new, and I expect there to be some kinks to work out over the first few threads they are in. Please leave your thoughts on them, including suggestions for improvements, and criticisms of data. Please also provide suggestions for the description paragraphs. I tried to make them as clear as possible, but I'm sure they could be better.
    I have tried to make these a simple as possible for me to produce, so I am likely to be able to post them soon after the appropriate thread has been created.


    Game Ratings

    These numbers are an attempt to assign a rating of how well an individual game's attendance matches up with performance of the league as a whole, and the individual team. The reference data is the previous year's average and standard deviation, for both the league, and the individual team. The numbers are the normal distribution's CDF multiplied by 100, and rounded to the nearest whole number. This means the valid range is from 0 to 100.


    DateTeamAttendanceLeague ScoreTeam Score
    2014-03-15 Philadelphia Union 18651 50 75
    2014-03-15 New York Red Bulls 20542 60 60
    2014-03-15 Houston Dynamo 18245 48 19
    2014-03-15 Sporting Kansas City 19431 54 37
    2014-03-15 Seattle Sounders 38441 99 28
    2014-03-15 San Jose Earthquakes 10525 16 40
    2014-03-16 Portland Timbers 20814 61 50
    2014-03-16 Chivas USA 6684 7 20
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  7. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Floating Window

    A floating window number is the average attendance for that team over the last X number of games, or X calendar years. So, for 17 games, it is the average of the last 17-n games from the previous season and the n games from the current season. For 1 year, it is the average from one year prior to the noted date through the noted date, inclusive. e.g. for 2014-03-10 it would be from 2013-03-10 through 2014-03-10 inclusive. For each floating window size, a prior and a current value are provided, as well as the difference between them. The dates for prior and current are specified below, and the values there are inclusive of games played on that date.


    Floating window for X number of games vs. last week

    Prior date: 2014-03-10
    Current date: 2014-03-17

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17
    Chicago Fire 19889 19889 0 18012 18012 0 15228 15228 0
    Chivas USA 8320 6684 -1636 8000 7780 -220 8437 8430 -7
    Colorado Rapids 18103 18103 0 16434 16434 0 15440 15440 0
    Columbus Crew 17505 17505 0 18075 18075 0 16080 16080 0
    D.C. United 13840 13840 0 13793 13793 0 13456 13456 0
    FC Dallas 18011 18011 0 14428 14428 0 15370 15370 0
    Houston Dynamo 22320 18245 -4075 20229 19847 -382 20058 20165 107
    Los Angeles Galaxy 25634 25634 0 22506 22506 0 22476 22476 0
    Montreal Impact 18993 18993 0 19785 19785 0 20603 20603 0
    New England Revolution 26548 26548 0 17746 17746 0 14844 14844 0
    New York Red Bulls 25219 20542 -4677 20804 21438 634 19461 19374 -87
    Philadelphia Union 18462 18651 189 18644 18644 0 17867 17896 29
    Portland Timbers 20674 20814 140 20674 20702 28 20674 20682 8
    Real Salt Lake 20447 20447 0 20018 20018 0 19218 19218 0
    San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10427 10427 0 12765 12765 0
    Seattle Sounders 39240 38441 -799 47696 44363 -3333 44053 43952 -101
    Sporting Kansas City 18932 19431 499 19391 19279 -112 19709 19684 -25
    Toronto FC 13211 13211 0 15111 15111 0 18131 18131 0
    Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20414 20414 0 20038 20038 0



    Floating window for X number of years vs. last week

    Prior date: 2014-03-10
    Current date: 2014-03-17

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5
    Chicago Fire 15352 15352 0 15284 15284 0
    Chivas USA 8437 8430 -7 13044 12967 -77
    Colorado Rapids 15440 15460 20 14291 14291 0
    Columbus Crew 16080 16052 -28 14341 14341 0
    D.C. United 13456 13456 0 14620 14620 0
    FC Dallas 15370 15370 0 13271 13271 0
    Houston Dynamo 20058 19958 -100 18705 18699 -6
    Los Angeles Galaxy 22476 22476 0 22195 22195 0
    Montreal Impact 20603 19523 -1080 21688 21688 0
    New England Revolution 14844 14844 0 13777 13777 0
    New York Red Bulls 19461 19374 -87 17783 17817 34
    Philadelphia Union 17849 18034 185 18331 18336 5
    Portland Timbers 20674 20682 8 19993 20008 15
    Real Salt Lake 19218 19146 -72 17930 17930 0
    San Jose Earthquakes 12905 12905 0 12360 12338 -22
    Seattle Sounders 44053 43952 -101 38794 38790 -4
    Sporting Kansas City 19709 19684 -25 15714 15759 45
    Toronto FC 17640 17640 0 19424 19424 0
    Vancouver Whitecaps 20161 20161 0 19995 19995 0
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  8. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    These tables are new from last week. They were redundant, because the prior week was also the beginning of the year. They are a comparison between the current numbers, and where each team started the year. Basically, if they finish out the rest of their schedule with the attendances from the same number of games at the end of last season, you would end up with these numbers.

    Floating window for X number of games vs. Start of the year

    Prior date: 2014-02-01
    Current date: 2014-03-17

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17
    Chicago Fire 19889 19889 0 18012 18012 0 15228 15228 0
    Chivas USA 11024 6684 -4340 7956 7780 -176 8366 8430 64
    Colorado Rapids 18103 18103 0 16434 16434 0 15440 15440 0
    Columbus Crew 17505 17505 0 18075 18075 0 16080 16080 0
    D.C. United 13731 13840 109 13811 13793 -18 13646 13456 -190
    FC Dallas 15017 18011 2994 13810 14428 618 15373 15370 -3
    Houston Dynamo 22345 18245 -4100 19466 19847 381 19923 20165 242
    Los Angeles Galaxy 25418 25634 216 21540 22506 966 22152 22476 324
    Montreal Impact 18993 18993 0 19785 19785 0 20603 20603 0
    New England Revolution 26548 26548 0 17746 17746 0 14844 14844 0
    New York Red Bulls 25219 20542 -4677 20804 21438 634 19461 19374 -87
    Philadelphia Union 18462 18651 189 18644 18644 0 17867 17896 29
    Portland Timbers 20674 20814 140 20674 20702 28 20674 20682 8
    Real Salt Lake 20447 20447 0 20018 20018 0 19218 19218 0
    San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10427 10427 0 12765 12765 0
    Seattle Sounders 66216 38441 -27775 47548 44363 -3185 44038 43952 -86
    Sporting Kansas City 18932 19431 499 19391 19279 -112 19709 19684 -25
    Toronto FC 13211 13211 0 15111 15111 0 18131 18131 0
    Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20414 20414 0 20038 20038 0



    Floating window for X number of years vs. Start of the year

    Prior date: 2014-02-01
    Current date: 2014-03-17

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5
    Chicago Fire 15228 15352 124 15284 15284 0
    Chivas USA 8366 8430 64 13102 12967 -135
    Colorado Rapids 15440 15460 20 14291 14291 0
    Columbus Crew 16080 16052 -28 14341 14341 0
    D.C. United 13646 13456 -190 14630 14620 -10
    FC Dallas 15373 15370 -3 13213 13271 58
    Houston Dynamo 19923 19958 35 18660 18699 39
    Los Angeles Galaxy 22152 22476 324 22153 22195 42
    Montreal Impact 20603 19523 -1080 21688 21688 0
    New England Revolution 14844 14844 0 13777 13777 0
    New York Red Bulls 19461 19374 -87 17783 17817 34
    Philadelphia Union 17867 18034 167 18331 18336 5
    Portland Timbers 20674 20682 8 19980 20008 28
    Real Salt Lake 19218 19146 -72 17930 17930 0
    San Jose Earthquakes 12765 12905 140 12360 12338 -22
    Seattle Sounders 44038 43952 -86 38789 38790 1
    Sporting Kansas City 19709 19684 -25 15714 15759 45
    Toronto FC 18131 17640 -491 19424 19424 0
    Vancouver Whitecaps 20038 20161 123 19975 19995 20
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  9. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    In general, when comparing the matches with their corresponding ones from last year, it looks like we are slightly down overall for this week's games, but given that last week was strong, we are still up overall when compared with last year. However, it is still very early to be making any judgements, especially since many teams have not even hosted a game yet.
  10. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2012
    Location:
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Country:
    Canada
    I really like these numbers. Looking only superficially, they seem very indicative of reality. I especially like how league and team ratings vary. Again, very accurately.
  11. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2012
    Location:
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Country:
    Canada
    Here's my contribution, a team by team capacity Matrix.

    As the season progresses and it fills in, it'll be interesting to do some graphs and stuff since, as we've established, those are the only numbers that matter :)

    Week 1Week2Average
    Chicago
    Chivas USA44.26%35.55%39.90%
    Colorado
    Columbus
    DC United70.44%70.44%
    FC Dallas87.86%87.86%
    Houston101.45%82.93%92.19%
    Los Angeles94.94%94.94%
    Montréal
    New England
    Philadelphia100.82%100.82%
    Portland100.00%100.68%100.34%
    Real Salt Lake
    Red Bull NY82.17%82.17%
    San Jose100.00%100.00%
    Seattle101.92%99.85%100.88%
    Sporting KC105.22%105.22%
    Toronto FC
    Vancouver100.00%100.00%
    Week average87.61%88.40%88.01%


    This table is going to get big soon enough. If anyone can suggest a procedure or Macro to turn the "Week 1 Week 2" of my source data into a more compact "game 1 game 2" for each team, it'll be appreciated.

    Also, should I up the capacity permanently for Portland?
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
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  12. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2012
    Location:
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Country:
    Canada
    NVM. Found my solution:

    Game 1Game 2Average
    Chicago
    Chivas USA44.26%35.55%39.90%
    Colorado
    Columbus
    DC United70.44%70.44%
    FC Dallas87.86%87.86%
    Houston101.45%82.93%92.19%
    Los Angeles94.94%94.94%
    Montréal
    New England
    Philadelphia100.82%100.82%
    Portland100.00%100.68%100.34%
    Real Salt Lake
    Red Bull NY82.17%82.17%
    San Jose100.00%100.00%
    Seattle101.92%99.85%100.88%
    Sporting KC105.22%105.22%
    Toronto FC
    Vancouver100.00%100.00%
    Week average87.61%88.40%88.01%
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  13. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    That is the hope. I toyed with a bunch of things until I came up with something that I liked, and I hope it continues to be informative throughout the season.

    I'd say if the Timbers 3rd home game (Apr 05) is also the new number, then yes switch it. I have a feeling it will be, but lets not be too hasty.
  14. sedlie

    sedlie Member+

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2011
    FYI. The 2014 sounders media guide lists 38300 as the capacity for "MLS regular season." pdf page 198
    I would recommend following the recommendation of @aperfectring while keeping game 1 at a capacity of 20674, because that's what the capacity was for that game.
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  15. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays This is your world.

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2007
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    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Country:
    United States
    And again, Chivas is being a drag.
  16. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Well it was actually expected this year whereas last year was out of the blue. It may not lessen the impact but it certainly mitigates the response.
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  17. doog

    doog Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2006
    During the preseason the Timbers built a new group deck on top of what had been a tarped off section (the section had badly obstructed views, I hope the deck is high enough to avoid the obstruction). The deck looked like it was finished by opening game, but I bet they hadn't gotten it inspected or something, because I don't think it was in use for game #1. I suspect we'll see 20,814 from here on out.
  18. GriffinGunner

    GriffinGunner Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2003
    Location:
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    As always, thank you, guys, for compliling this info.

    It's going to be very interesting to see how the League wil handle the changing of this product and, more importantly, how the community responds. Simply slapping new uniforms on the product and calling it LAFC (or something of the like) isn't going to endear another 7k fans into buying seasons tickets. Clearly they'll have to build the full package and offer the promise of a new home very, very quickly before we'll see the end of these meager turn outs. Otherwise it'll be tough to lure customers from the Galaxy brand. If anything develops in mid-season I wonder if they'll announce that in the hopes of building up late season ticket sales?

    However, if they pull something off that brings them up to about 15k that would do wonders for the league, I'd imagine, because at that point we'd regard MLS games below that mark much the way we do now with 10k. Which, based on what we've seen across the league, 15k seems to be a about the benchmark for creating respectable atmospheres, building die-hard fanbases and approaching actual profit.
    Orlando Rays repped this.
  19. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2000
    Location:
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Country:
    Bolivia
    15k is too high. Dallas was 15k last year and they were happy with that number. Chivas should be content if they get some consistency above 12k in the second half of the season. In the end, the value is in the players themselves. If they can make it to the playoffs that would be good. Make a deep run and everything is fixed. Frankly, the team could have been called #@$#$@ United but if they were championship contenders they would have gotten 15k.
  20. GriffinGunner

    GriffinGunner Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2003
    Location:
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    In the first year, maybe, and especially depending on their venue options. And while every fanbase is subject to performance anxiety I'd like to think 15k isn't that big an ask if the brand is right. Not as a target, anyway.

    Put another way: If the league and owners were to find they can't draw 15k then I'd question why they're staying in LA to begin with. Surely anything less than that on a continual basis will remain financially unsound in the LA market.
  21. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2003
    Location:
    dc
    In regards to Chivas, the league should move the team to another venue in a different part of the region as the re-brand next year. I think rumors of playing at USC have been out there. I think that will give them a much better chance of having a clean slate. Just changing the name with the same players and playing at the same location doesn't seem like a recipe for success.
  22. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

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    Feb 13, 2010
    Location:
    NorCal
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Country:
    United States
    I agree with this. The LA metropolitan area is huge, and Carson isn't exactly centrally located. If they can find some Buck Shaw Stadium level venue in another part of town, they should move there ASAP. Almost any soccer fan that can get to Carson is going to choose the LA Galaxy. LAFC/SC needs to draw from the millions of people for whom the StubHub Center is not a convenient location.
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  23. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Location:
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    First off, this type of stuff is probably better suited towards a thread specifically about the changes surrounding Chivas.

    Secondly, if you are going to make those sorts of statements, at least base them in fact. Chivas has, in fact, drawn decently well in the past. For many years, Chivas was maintaining a solid 14+k average attendance in Carson, even with a superior LA Galaxy team in the same venue.

    Thirdly, they aren't going to move the team anywhere until they have a new ownership, and the move will be at the new ownership's discretion. I too would like to see Chivas move to their own home, but it needs to be the right move, and will by no means be a solution (on its own) to their current attendance woes.
    JasonMa and BalanceUT repped this.
  24. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2012
    Location:
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Country:
    Canada
  25. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2012
    Location:
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Country:
    Canada
    Montreal announced they've sold 24,000 tickets to thus weekends home opener.

    I imagine there'll be an uptick as the game draws closer, but unless it's massive that's quite disappointing.

    Also it bodes quite poorly for the 2 other matches before going out to Saputo.

    Though I'm not too surprised, no one enjoys going to the decrepit and massive stadium (I love the place to bits, but you gotta admit it)

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