MLS Attendance Analysis: PreSeason

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Jan 15, 2014.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    No numbers of course as this is the preseason. Created because of MLSFan123's prompting. We can use this to discuss last seasons final numbers, and expectations for this season. I had hoped to have the team centric data up by now, but have been enjoying my Holidays, and not enjoying getting back to the grind at work. I will make a concerted effort to get them by the end of next week. I am out of town this weekend so most likely next week it will be.


    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).
    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:
    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column
    18801 is the max
    13756 is the min
    5045 is the difference
    To calculate the derived value for 2011
    Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932.
    Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18
    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.


  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    AAQ Data:
    So despite a poor start and an awful season from Chivas last year ended up a very solid second.


    Current
    Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date
    1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 7 9/22
    1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 15 9/28
    1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 16 9/27
    1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 17 10/10
    2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 18 9/9
    2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 13 9/9
    2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 9 9/22
    2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 12 10/26
    2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 64 79 70 36 250 11 10/17
    2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 14 10/16
    2006 15538 14175 18.8% 18.8% 65 65 52 69 250 10 10/15
    2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 4 10/21
    2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 6 10/26
    2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 8 10/25
    2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 5 10/16
    2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 18 12 11 22 63 3 10/23
    2012 18801 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/21
    2013 18608 18359 5.6% 32.5% 4 1 11 0 16 2 10/27
    Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date
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  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    We know a couple of things. Portland looked into opening additional seating, perhaps one of their regulars can provide an update. Seattle is selling two half season packs, but does not show increased seating on the season ticket page. This could indicate renewals were a bit soft this year. And MLSFan123 asks has Chivas hit rock bottom?
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2014
  4. Kingston

    Kingston Member

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    As always, thanks very much for doing this.

    I'm expecting a noticeable improvement in TFC's numbers. It won't impact the average much but should impact the >20k number because I'd expect a bunch of games to come in just over 20k instead of just under 20k.


  5. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    No numbers? Nobody showed up? Crap, the sky is falling! Worst. Season. Ever.

    (Just thought I'd get that out of the way so we could move on to actual discussion)
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  6. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    I'm not particularly in the loop, so I can only really comment on official communication. I haven't seen any new/announcements about the team having sold out their season tickets yet, which is very strange. Season ticket renewals were due in the fall (I can't remember whether it was the end of Sept. or the end of Oct.), so they should have all of those processed long ago. I can only assume that they are still working on capacity expansion plans, and because of that they are having to delay selling more season tickets to people on the wait list.

    I'll reiterate the talk that I've heard going around about capacity expansion in other threads on here. They are working on terracing a portion of the Timbers Army section. From what I have heard, next year the plan is to have the whole of the 100 level TA be terraced. The question is whether any of it will be terraced this year. There may be other plans to expand the capacity beyond this as well, but I haven't heard anything there.

    Unrelatedly, the field has been widened again, and it will now be 75 yds, up from 74 last year.
  7. DC06

    DC06 Member

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    The major question I have is who is potentially set up for a contraction this year in attendance?

    Most sides right now feel like should hold steady as worrying numbers likely won't go much lower. My guess is 2014 will be much like 2012 and 2013 with Chivas being the only sub 10K concern.
  8. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

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    Chivas will never be contracted as long as Don Garber is commisioner. He's admitted to being very much involved with the concept and holds himself responsible for its problems.
  9. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    I think it was poor wording. I think he meant which teams will be down in attendance, not which teams will be removed from the league for bad attendance.
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  10. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    just replace the word "contraction" with "reduction" to see what he meant.
  11. DC06

    DC06 Member

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    Meant the definition as in "a period of decreased business activity", so reduced or poorer attendance compared to prior years.
  12. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

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    gotcha
  13. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Hmmm.. so we learned contraction is a buzz word as well ;)
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  14. T.M. Anthony

    T.M. Anthony Member

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    TFC should have a much better year attendance wise, probably even 21k+ if they're competitive (playoff contenders) come the fall.

    It'll also be interesting to see how much the 49ers and stanford stadium game impacts the Earthquakes attendance.
  15. PTFC in KCMO

    PTFC in KCMO Member+

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    I'm calling it. I'm going anti "the sky is falling" and I am predicting that MLS breaks their attedance records this year. I think this coming year is going to be an amazing thing to witness.
  16. Bremas

    Bremas Member

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    Okay, so Toronto will definitely be higher. Portland and Seattle might. I don't see anything else really moving the needle much. Would love to see the Galaxy move their number more toward 27,000 (they've been slowly sliding) as that's the only other team I see capable of doing it.

    Sorta unrelated as SJ is stuck at 10,000 for this season, but curious how their season ticket sales are doing (as they were supposed to open new stadium this season) and whether they have room to sit everyone. Yea, I know, but just curious if its getting close.
  17. Hierarchyfive

    Hierarchyfive Member

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    Season Tickets are sold out. They had 99.3% renewal (or something in the 99th percentile at least).

    Terracing is 2015 as they removed the last barriers to them with the city, but too late to install for 2014.

    There are some minor additions to seating for 2014 including more bleachers on the South/East side and another viewing deck being built in a previously tarped off 201.
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  18. EvilTree

    EvilTree Member+

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    idea what the official capacity of JWF for 2014?
  19. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    SJ will not be stuck at 10k. They could easily hit 13-14k this year with the two offsite games ( one at Stanford one at Levi's)
  20. RfrancisR

    RfrancisR Member

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    We just had a polar vortex come through. Geesh, you sky-is-falling types!


    :D
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  21. bbsbt

    bbsbt Member+

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    Are we gonna be using actual in-stadium head counts this time, or just the reported numbers again?
    kidding...kidding
  22. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

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    Unless you plan to head count yourself, we are using what we have, which is reported numbers.

    We all know the problems with that, but it's a consistent number we have for every game, and since the overcounting is pretty consistent it's a perfectly valid methodology.
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  23. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    How would you propose we get actual in-stadium head counts if those are not what is reported?
  24. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

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    Ditto on the optimism for me.

    With 17,000 season tickets TFC is going to near sellout every single game. I'm expecting a 21,000+ average.

    Steady as she goes for Portland and Seattle, and probably continued stability in Vancouver.

    Montreal will repeat its previous trends: ~25,000 average at 3 games at Olympic Stadium, 17k-18k for the early games at Saputo where we all start to panic, followed by increases leading to sellouts throughout the second half of the season.

    Otherwise I don't know. It's hard to expect any substantial decreases, But it's always better to expect a black swan or two every year.
  25. T.M. Anthony

    T.M. Anthony Member

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    well, we'll count one half of the heads if you promise to count the other half. ;)

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