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MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 29

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Sep 26, 2012.

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  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Attendance Analysis Week 29, return of the tables. This sequel does not star small furry but vicious creatures. Nor the redemption of a wayward hero, it also is not a trap. I am ever so thankful for all the hard effort of the BigSoccer design and coding team, and while there is still room for improvement these tables are certainly several steps up from the attached text file, and are even clearer than the old borderless tables in the previous bigsoccer.

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:

    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column

    17869 is the max
    13756 is the min
    4113 is the difference

    To calculate the derived value for 2010
    Subtract 16675 from 17869 to get 1194.
    Divide 1194 by 4113 then mulitply by 100* to get 29

    *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read.

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
     
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  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Last Week:
    Wow I nearly forgot how I previously did this. Last week was pretty busy with 13 matches. Something of a surprise in Harrison where the Red Bulls had a very Meadowlandsesque attendance. DC continues to fall off a cliff, let hope that stadium drive is not just more smoke. On the other side Chicago continues a great season at the gate, and Columbus continues to make last season look like an anomoly.

    Home Team Attendance
    RB New York 10286
    Columbus 13874
    San Jose 9877
    Philadelphia 16024
    Montréal 20521
    New England 24364
    Real Salt Lake 20524
    Chicago 19172
    Los Angeles 27000
    Seattle 38948
    Philadelphia 17666
    DC United 11770
    Vancouver 18992
    Total 249018
    Average 19155


    This Week:
    The upcoming week brings us nine matches, looks to be fairly well balanced with a good chance that 5 and perhaps 6 of the 9 matches will clear 20k. San Jose is unlikely to fall under 10k with a Saturday home game, though last weeks was somewhat surprising even if it was a midweek match.
     
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  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Season Stats *new*:
    So a little something new this week. Instead of entering all of the game count info that I had done as a narative I am now going to display it in a table that I have been maintaining locally since I started as the keeper of stats. Gone is the median of team medians, it added little value. Note in the table below that the thresholds are not between. What this means is that 201 have been over 15k or under 10k and that the remaining 82 have still fallen inbetween the two. That is the next number to work on I think.


    Season Stats
    Totals Thresholds Count Percent
    Games Played 283 Count >=50000 5 1.8%
    Total 5242933 Count >=30000 17 6.0%
    Average 18526 Count >=20000 86 30.4%
    Median 18227 Count >=15000 195 68.9%
    Maximum 60908 Count <10000 6 2.1%
    Minimum 6149 Count <7500 1 0.4%
    S. Deviation 7975 Count <5000 0 0.0%


    And now for the two AAQ tables.

    Historic
    EOS
    Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date
    1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 11 44 57 20 132 5 9/22
    1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 79 85 67 78 310 13 9/28
    1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 86 100 73 79 338 14 9/27
    1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 87 81 93 85 346 15 10/10
    2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 86 100 100 386 16 9/9
    2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 71 73 73 70 286 11 9/9
    2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 50 61 40 65 215 7 9/22
    2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 72 68 61 68 270 10 10/26
    2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 56 77 66 26 225 8 10/17
    2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 67 87 75 70 298 12 10/16
    2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 59 61 48 67 235 9 10/15
    2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 27 40 9 0 75 2 10/21
    2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 34 42 19 28 124 4 10/26
    2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 45 51 32 51 178 6 10/25
    2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 29 40 7 42 117 3 10/16
    2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 0 0 0 9 9 1 10/23



    Current
    Average Median <10k >20k Avg
    Pts
    Med
    Pts
    <10k
    Pts
    >20k
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Pts
    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date
    1996 17714 15471 21.4% 27.9% 16 41 56 13 127 3 9/4
    1997 14567 12733 24.3% 15.7% 79 82 65 77 302 13 9/12
    1998 14109 11522 26.8% 14.9% 88 100 72 81 341 16 9/6
    1999 14547 13128 31.5% 15.5% 79 76 86 78 319 14 9/18
    2000 13494 12544 36.3% 11.3% 100 85 100 100 385 17 8/26
    2001 14776 13251 26.1% 16.7% 75 74 70 72 291 12 8/19
    2002 15462 13251 18.7% 16.3% 61 74 49 74 257 8 8/31
    2003 14727 13719 24.6% 18.5% 75 67 66 62 271 10 10/1
    2004 15082 13055 27.7% 22.3% 68 77 75 42 263 9 9/18
    2005 14769 12252 29.8% 15.5% 75 89 81 78 323 15 9/24
    2006 14975 12979 22.0% 16.1% 71 78 58 75 282 11 9/20
    2007 16428 14818 8.8% 26.3% 42 51 20 21 134 4 9/29
    2008 16366 15037 11.4% 25.0% 43 48 27 28 146 6 10/4
    2009 15662 14516 16.2% 19.3% 57 55 41 58 212 7 9/26
    2010 16593 15050 8.1% 22.4% 38 47 18 42 145 5 10/2
    2011 17553 17208 6.0% 25.4% 19 15 11 26 72 2 9/24
    2012 18526 18227 2.1% 30.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 9/23
     
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  4. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Comparison To Last Season and All-Time:
    Finally the last part, the comparitive. I mentioned some of this above, DCU continues the free fall which is sad and predictable. Toronto fans are voting with their feet, as are Chicago's, however, in the case of the latter more are turning out which is always good. Colorado looks to continue a bit of a fan revival inspite of what has been a disappointing season. Unless I am much mistaken LA cannot catch last seasons final average, as they have two remaining and their last two last season sold out. So even sellouts will keep them just off last seasons pace.


    Team
    Played Current Last Diff Alltime Diff
    Chicago 15 16170 14137 14.4% 15529 4.1%
    Chivas USA 14 13285 14248 -6.8% 15863 -16.3%
    Colorado 14 14974 14584 2.7% 13971 7.2%
    Columbus 14 14346 11405 25.8% 15238 -5.9%
    DC United 16 13483 15148 -11.0% 17194 -21.6%
    FC Dallas 16 14099 13026 8.2% 12203 15.5%
    Houston 14 20774 16793 23.7% 17327 19.9%
    Los Angeles 15 22621 22846 -1.0% 22067 2.5%
    Montréal 16 22944 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
    New England 16 13281 13030 1.9% 15610 -14.9%
    Philadelphia 15 18086 18217 -0.7% 18724 -3.4%
    Portland 15 20438 18740 9.1% 18827 8.6%
    Red Bull NY 14 17099 18967 -9.8% 17159 -0.3%
    Real Salt Lake 16 18998 17420 9.1% 16828 12.9%
    San Jose 15 13633 12021 13.4% 12820 6.3%
    Seattle 14 42086 36932 14.0% 35329 19.1%
    Sporting KC 15 19296 17668 9.2% 11386 69.5%
    Toronto FC 15 18480 20187 -8.5% 20264 -8.8%
    Vancouver 14 19379 20615 -6.0% 20412 -5.1%
    Overall - 18526 17553 5.5% 15739 17.7%


    Just one milestone to report, Real Salt Lake played their 125th home match of all time, drawing 2138186 in those 125. That is good for 5th through that match number
     
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  5. ChrisV323

    ChrisV323 Member

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    Didn't LA Galaxy average 23,051 in 2011?? You put 22,846.
     
  6. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    The comparison to last season is through the same point last season.
     
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  7. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

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    Trivia for the day: the PG-13 rating was invented largely because of the uproar after Indiana Jones and Temple of Doom and Gremlins were released. Some would say as an "apology" for the somewhat scary films, Steven Spielberg made The Goonies. And, of course, today we have an MLS team identifying with the latter, even if many MLS fans would characterize one of the players on the team as more of a (furry and vicious?) villain from one of the former two movies.

    As always, thank you for doing this. The new data is awesome!
     
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  8. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    It was Spielberg himself who suggested a PG-13 or a PG-14 rating to the MPAA. They shortly there after adopted the PG-13 intermediate rating in the summer of 1984.
     
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  9. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    Lenhart is at best a gremlin, he's doesn't rise to the level of quality needed to star in an Indiana Jones movie as a Thuggee.
     
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  10. RfrancisR

    RfrancisR Member

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    Eleven teams are averaging more than 17,000 including ten teams that are averaging more than 18,000, and five teams averaging more than 20,000. As for the old standard of 14,000, well, fourteen teams are besting that. And not a single team is averaging less than 13,000.
     
  11. newtex

    newtex Member+

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    On Monday the Dynamo announced less than 500 tickets left for this Saturday's game against New England. Should be a sell-out.
     
  12. Spursfan1

    Spursfan1 Member+

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    nice!
     
  13. Fiosfan

    Fiosfan Member+

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    Now Now..
     
  14. ChrisV323

    ChrisV323 Member

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    Can we expect a Sell out on Sunday in Colorado? LA Galaxy Circus in town!
     
  15. Cactus Hibs

    Cactus Hibs Member

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    He kinda reminds me of Chunk...
     
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  16. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    2011
    Games Played: 306
    Total Attnd: 5,467,880
    Average Attnd: 17,869
    Median Attnd: 17,639

    Median-33%: 11,765
    Median+33%: 23,530
    <MED-33%: 56 / 18.3%
    >MED+33%: 36 / 11.8%

    Average %CAP: 81.0%
    Median %CAP: 85.7%
    Games <70%: 86 / 28.1%
    Games >90%: 139 / 45.4%

    2012
    Games Played: 283
    Total Attnd: 5,242,963
    Average Attnd: 18,526
    Median Attnd: 18,227

    Median-33%: 12,157
    Median+33%: 24,315
    <MED-33%: 47 / 16.6%
    >MED+33%: 24 / 8.5%

    Average %CAP: 84.6%
    Median %CAP: 89.3%
    Games <70%: 64 / 22.6%
    Games >90%: 135 / 47.7%

    NOTES
    1. For information regarding 2011 stadium capacities go HERE.

    2. Per 2012 MLS Team Media Guides the following are the standard capacities for each team's regular home stadium: CHI (20,000); CHV (18,800); COL (18,086); CLB (20,145); DCU (19,647); FCD (20,500); HOU (22,000); LAG (27,000); MTL (20,341); NER (20,000); NYR (25,000); PHI (18,500); POR (20,438); RSL (20,213); SJE (10,525); SEA (38,500); SKC (18,467); TFC (21,140); VAN (21,000)

    3. The following are capacity exceptions to the norms above: MON 3/17 (58,500); SJE 3/17 (41,915); MTL 4/7 (22,000); MTL 4/28 (22,000); MTL 5/12 (58,500); MTL 5/19 (22,000); SJE 6/30 (50,000); SSFC 8/5 (64,000); SSFC 8/18 (64,000)

    4. Some listed capacities are "seated only" and teams may have sold/had SRO attendance over this amount, thus putting the %CAP over 100% for certain games. For calculating the average and median %CAP for all games these 100%+ numbers were used as is.
     
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  17. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

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    I know it is a really small thing, but Houstons capacity is 22039. I only bring that up so all the sellouts don't show as over capacity. We have yet to exceed capacity, officially, for any game yet. Icdoubt it changes your numbers much, OG, but for the sake of accuracy.....
     
  18. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

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    i will change the footer next time, but i am actually using 22,039 in the data itself ... i think i came up with the footer notes before they played the first game there at the new stadium and we discovered the actual capacity. the Dynamo have the capacity listed in the season guides as 22,000 as well but i have been using 22,039 since the first game where it turned out that was the actual max capacity.
     
  19. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

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    Its too bad we've got 2-4 inches of rain forcated tomorrow...
     
  20. Oobers

    Oobers Member+

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    Record attendance of 21,010 at LSP tonight.
     
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  21. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

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    Saputo stadium is listed here as 20,341. But the first game at full capacity last week was listed as 20,521. Also this week someone altered the wikipedia entry to reflect this, though there is no evidence to back the new value.

    At this time I can't find any clarity either way.
     
  22. Spursfan1

    Spursfan1 Member+

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    this is how you do it dallas, columbus, DC and chivas. this is how you do it.
     
  23. Beavis Stiffler

    Beavis Stiffler Member+

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    Expect rain and thunderstorms in tonight's Dynamo-Revolution match. I don't know how they will count the attendance, is it tickets already sold or actual people in the seats?
     
  24. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    This is explained in the first post in the thread. See the last paragraph in that first post or read below.

    Announced attendance in MLS = Tickets distributed

    Tickets Distributed = Tickets Sold + Sponsors Tickets + Freebees

    Whether people come or not does not factor in to announced attendances. I am sure all teams track the actual butts in seats attendance since that affects game day revenue, but they do not release this.

    The way MLS reports attendance is pretty much the same way all sports teams in the US report attendance.
     
  25. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    Strange of you to call out both Columbus and Dallas when they showed solid growth this year. In fact Columbus has the best growth if attendance % of any team in the league.
     
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