MLS Cup Playoffs Predictions by Regular Season Series: How accurate are they?

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by henryo, Oct 30, 2012.

?

Which 2 Teams will meet in MLS Cup Final 2012?

  1. San Jose Earthquakes

    32.3%
  2. Sporting Kansas City

    45.2%
  3. D.C. United

    9.7%
  4. New York Red Bulls

    6.5%
  5. Real Salt Lake

    19.4%
  6. Chicago Fire

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Seattle Sounder

    9.7%
  8. L.A. Galaxy

    35.5%
  9. Houston Dynamo

    38.7%
  10. Vancouver Whitecaps

    3.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Just thought that this topic may warrant a thread by itself, as we look at the accuracies of predicting the outcome of playoffs match-ups, based on the head-to-head records in the regular season series...

    Below are the full list of predictions, since the league's inception in 1996.

    Some ground rules:

    1. For 1-legged playoff series (e.g. the Play-in Round since 2011 & Conf. Finals since 2003), only the home regular season games of the hosting team were considered.
    2. For 2-legged (or more) playoff series (e.g. Best-of-3 in 1996-2002), all regular season games between the teams were considered.
    3. A team would "win" a playoff series, if they amass more points in head-to-head regular season games against their playoff opponents.
    4. In case of equal point amassed, the tie-breakers are:
    a. GS in head-to-head regular season games,
    b. PKs scored throughout regular season,
    c. Total GS in regular season standings,
    d. Total GD in regular season standings.

    Mucky and profiled repped this.


  2. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Accuracies of Predictions, though 2011:
    Season Playoffs
    Series
    Same
    Outcome
    Diff.
    Outcome
    % of Same
    Outcome
    Champions
    "Predicted"
    (Actual)
    Runners-up
    "Predicted"
    (Actual)
    Champions
    Spotted
    Finalist(s)
    Spotted
    2011 9 3 6 33% SEA. (L.A.) K.C. (HOU) No 0
    2010 7 2 5 29% L.A. (COL.) CLB. (DAL.) No 0
    2009 7 2 5 29% N.E. (RSL.) SEA. (L.A.) No 0
    2008 7 5 2 71% N.Y. (CLB.) CLB. (N.Y.) No 2
    2007 7 3 4 43% D.C. (HOU.) HOU. (N.E.) No 1
    2006 7 2 5 29% DAL. (HOU.) CHI. (N.E.) No 0
    2005 7 2 5 29% S.J. (L.A.) N.E. (N.E.) No 1
    2004 7 2 5 29% CLB. (D.C.) L.A. (K.C.) No 0
    2003 7 1 6 14% D.C. (S.J.) COL. (CHI.) No 0
    2002 7 4 3 57% L.A. (L.A.) CHI. (N.E.) Yes 1
    2001 7 3 4 43% CLB. (S.J.) CHI. (L.A.) No 0
    2000 7 4 3 57% K.C. (K.C.) N.Y. (CHI.) Yes 1
    1999 7 4 3 57% D.C. (D.C.) CHI. (L.A.) Yes 1
    1998 7 4 3 57% D.C. (CHI.) L.A. (D.C.) No 1
    1997 7 2 5 29% K.C. (D.C.) D.C. No 1
    1996 7 5 2 71% D.C. (D.C.) DAL. (L.A.) Yes 1
    Total 114 48 66 42% D.C. rules with 5 titles!! :thumbsup: Chicago rues with 4 final losses :cry: 4 Champs out of 16 Seasons (25%) 10 Finalists out of 16 Finals/32 Possible Teams (31.25%)


    “Predicted” Play-off Successes vs. Actual (through 2011):
    Rank Club Champions
    (Actual)
    Runners-up
    (Actual)
    Total Final
    Appearances
    (Actual)
    Remarks
    1 D.C. 5 (4) 1 (1) 6 (5) Clearly the "Brazil" of MLS
    2 L.A. 2 (3) 2 (4) 4 (7)
    3 CLB. 2 (1) 2 (0) 4 (1)
    4 K.C. 2 (1) 1 (1) 3 (2)
    5 N.E. 1 (0) 1 (4) 2 (4) Congratulations!!
    6 N.Y. 1 (0) 1 (1) 2 (1) Congratulations!!
    7 DAL. 1 (0) 1 (1) 2 (1) Congratulations!!
    8 SEA. 1 (0) 1 (0) 2 (0) Congratulations!!
    9 S.J. 1 (2) 0 (0) 1 (2)
    10 CHI. 0 (1) 4 (2) 4 (3) How dare you steal my title!
    11 HOU. 0 (2) 1 (1) 1 (3) How dare you steal my title(s)!
    12 COL. 0 (1) 1 (1) 1 (2) How dare you steal my title!
    13 RSL. 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (1) How dare you steal my title!
    Total 16 (16) 16 (16) 32 (32)


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Fun Notes for your reading pleasure please:

    1. Highest Accuracies in Series Outcome Predictions: 71% in 1996 & 2008.

    2. Lowest Accuracies in Series Outcome Predictions: 14% in 2003.

    3. N.Y., N.E., Seattle and Dallas would have "won" their first MLS Cups based on this model.

    4. Chicago, Colorado, Houston & RSL would not have won their MLS Cups here.

    5. Chicago would have been the "New England-equivalent",with most final losses at 4, winning none.

    6. 2008 was the only season so far that saw 2 Finalists predicted correctly.

    7. The last champions predicted correctly was L.A. in 2002.

    8. The last runners-up predicted correctly was N.E. in 2005.

    9. The model has correctly predicted 5 Finalists in the first 5 seasons (& 6 in the first 7).

    10. D.C. would have still made 4 straight finals, winning 3 in their '96-99 "dynasty".

    11. D.C./K.C. would have totally monopolized the first 5 seasons of the league.

    12. 8 Supporters' Shield winners would have gone on to win the MLS Cup in this model ('96, 99, 00, 02, 04, 05, 07, 10), versus the 6 in actual ('97, 99, 00, 02, 08, 11).

    13. Another 3 SS winners would have finished as MLS Cup runners-up, versus just 1 in actual ('03).

    14. The largest "upset" would have been N.Y. in 2008, winning the MLS Cup as 8th seed.

    15. The lowest seed to reach a final would have been Chicago in 2002, as 7th seed (3rd in the West).

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comments / Corrections / Compliments are most welcomed...
    Mucky repped this.
  3. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2000
    Location:
    Nirvana
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Country:
    United States
    From looking over the numbers seems to indicate that there isn't any real predictive power to the concept.

    I'd be curious to see how series where at team won 3 or more meetings (i.e. 3-0 or 4-0) versus a team ended up.

    There often times is the thought that it's hard to beat a team 3, 4 or 5 times in a row, so wondering if this bears out (i..e a team went 3-0 vs the other team in the regular season but ended up losing out in the playoffs).
  4. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007

    Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results ;)


  5. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
  6. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    List of Regular Season "Clean Sweeps" ('96-99 SO incl.), based on Conf. Semis/Q-Finals over the years, all of them have advanced to the next round, except '97 K.C. :cool:

    N.Y.(3) vs DAL.(6) in 2000 was the only "Full Sweep" (Reg.+ PO) here, with N.Y. winning all 4 games in 90 minutes!! :thumbsup:

    - 2008: Conf. Semis: East: Chicago Fire (2E) vs. New England Revolution (3E),
    Regular Season Series: 4-0, 3-0, 2-1;
    Playoffs 0-0,3-0.

    - 2008: Conf. Semis: East: New England Revolution (2E) vs. New York Red Bulls (3E),
    Regular Season Series: 2-1, 1-0;
    Playoffs 0-0,1-0.

    - 2000: Quarters: N.Y.(3) vs DAL.(6) -
    Reg.Season: 2-1,6-4 (Pts 6:0);
    Playoffs 2-1,2-1.

    - 1999: Conf. Finals: East: D.C.(1E) vs MIA.(4E) -
    Reg.Season: 3-1,3-1,3-2(SO),3-1 (Pts 10:0);
    Playoffs 2-0,1-0(SO).

    - 1997: Conf Semi: East: D.C.(1E) vs N.E.(4E) -
    Reg.Season: 1-0(SO),1-0,3-2,3-2(SO) (Pts 8:0);
    Playoffs: 4-1,2-1(SO).

    - 1997 Conf. Semis: West: K.C.(1W) vs COL.(4W) -
    Reg.Season: 4-3(SO),1-0,2-1,5-2 (Pts 10:0);
    Playoffs: 0-3,2-3!!

    - 1996 Conf. Semis: West: L.A.(1W) vs S.J.(4W):
    Reg.Season: 2-1,2-1,2-1(SO),4-2 (Pts 10:0);
    Playoffs: 0-1,2-0,2-0.
    profiled repped this.
  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2004
    Location:
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    You have the seeds listed, so can you post the following for all-time (I don't need it for each season):

    When the team with more regular season points also did better in the regular season head-to-head, what percent of the time did that club advance in the playoffs?
    When the team with fewer regular season points did better in the regular season head-to-head, what percent of the time did each club advance in the playoffs?

    Note that I said "more regular season points" rather than "better seed" because of times when the fifth best club in the West could enter the playoffs as East 4 or vice versa.

    Just like how the effectiveness of drugs is compared to a placebo, I want the answer to my second question to evaluate how good regular season head-to-head is at predicting playoff results rather than just looking at what percent of the time regular season head-to-head was correct for predicting the playoffs.
  8. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Have compiled the corresponding "playoff-teams-only" tables for 2011 & 2010 as below, more past seasons to come later...

    From these 2 seasons, teams near the bottom of the table have made the Cup Final, the results didn't seem to matter much...


    2011:
    #Team P W D LPts Outcome
    1 L.A. 18 10 4 4 34 Won MLS Cup!!
    2 RSL. 18 8 4 6 28 Conf. Final
    3 SEA. 18 8 4 6 28 Conf. Semis
    4 CLB. 18 7 4 7 25 Wild Card
    5 DAL. 18 6 4 8 22 Wild Card
    6 N.Y. 18 5 7 6 22 Conf. Semis
    7 K.C. 18 5 6 7 21 Conf. Final
    8 HOU. 18 4 9 5 21 Made Cup Final.
    9 COL. 18 5 6 7 21 Conf. Semis
    10PHI. 18 4 8 6 20 Conf. Semis

    2010:
    #Team P W D LPts Outcome
    1 L.A. 14 9 1 4 28 Conf. Final
    2 RSL. 14 5 6 3 21 Conf. Semis
    3 N.Y. 14 5 3 6 18 Conf. Semis
    4 COL. 14 4 5 5 17 Won MLS Cup!!
    5 SEA. 14 4 5 5 17 Conf. Semis
    6 S.J. 14 4 5 5 17 Conf. Final
    7 CLB. 14 4 5 5 17 Conf. Semis
    8 DAL. 14 2 8 4 14 Made Cup Final.
  9. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Posting standings for 2012 (with GP), 2011/2010 (with PPG), and 2009-2003 seasons, ever since the league moved away from 3-game-per-series format.

    As things stand, Chicago is already out of the playoffs despite being 3rd in 2012 standings , :cry:.

    Other observations (based on 2003 - 2011 standings):

    1. '11 L.A. is the only top team so far to fulfill the prophecy and won it all.​

    2. '09-11 L.A.'s "hat-trick" of top-spot is most likely the only one of its kind...​

    3. '03-04 have seen the top-2 teams contested the final as well, while '07 saw the #2/#3 teams met in the final.​

    4. '05-06 have seen the near-bottom teams ('05 L.A./'06 HOU.) won the Cup, while '10-11 ('10 DAL./'11 HOU.) had the same made the final.​

    5. '05 L.A. were the lowest-placed team (#7) to win the Cup.​

    6. '10 DAL. maybe the only team who remained UNBEATEN against NON-playoffs teams all-season (Overall: W12-D14-L4, vs Playoffs Teams: P2-D8-L4, vs others: P10-D6-L0!!)​

    Season 2012: (through Oct 31: East KO)
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg Playoffs Outcome
    1 S.J. 17 10 3 4 33 1.941 Conf. Semis (IP)
    2 K.C. 16 8 5 3 29 1.813 Conf. Semis (IP)
    3 CHI. 16 6 5 5 23 1.438 Conf. KO
    4 SEA. 17 5 7 5 22 1.294 Conf. Semis (IP)
    5 RSL. 17 6 4 7 22 1.294 Conf. Semis (IP)
    6 HOU. 17 6 4 7 22 1.294 Conf. Semis (IP)
    7 N.Y. 17 5 6 6 21 1.235 Conf. Semis (IP)
    8 L.A. 17 6 2 9 20 1.176 Conf. KO (IP)
    9 VAN. 17 4 6 7 18 1.059 Conf. KO (IP)
    10D.C. 15 3 4 8 13 0.867 Conf. Semis (IP)


    Season 2011:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 18 10 4 4 34 1.889 Won MLS Cup!!
    2 RSL. 18 8 4 6 28 1.556 Conf. Final
    3 SEA. 18 8 4 6 28 1.556 Conf. Semis
    4 CLB. 18 7 4 7 25 1.389 Wild Card
    5 DAL. 18 6 4 8 22 1.222 Wild Card
    6 N.Y. 18 5 7 6 22 1.222 Conf. Semis
    7 K.C. 18 5 6 7 21 1.167 Conf. Final
    8 HOU. 18 4 9 5 21 1.167 Made Cup Final.
    9 COL. 18 5 6 7 21 1.167 Conf. Semis
    10PHI. 18 4 8 6 20 1.111 Conf. Semis


    Season 2010:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 14 9 1 4 28 2.000 Conf. Final
    2 RSL. 14 5 6 3 21 1.500 Conf. Semis
    3 N.Y. 14 5 3 6 18 1.286 Conf. Semis
    4 COL. 14 4 5 5 17 1.214 Won MLS Cup!!
    5 SEA. 14 4 5 5 17 1.214 Conf. Semis
    6 S.J. 14 4 5 5 17 1.214 Conf. Final
    7 CLB. 14 4 5 5 17 1.214 Conf. Semis
    8 DAL. 14 2 8 4 14 1.000 Made Cup Final.


    Season 2009:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 15 7 5 3 26 1.733 Made Cup Final.
    2 HOU. 15 6 5 4 23 1.533 Conf. Final
    3 N.E. 14 6 2 6 20 1.423 Conf. Semis
    4 CLB. 15 5 6 4 21 1.400 Conf. Semis
    5 RSL. 15 5 4 6 19 1.267 Won MLS Cup!
    6 SEA. 15 4 6 5 18 1.200 Conf. Semis
    7 CHI. 15 3 8 4 17 1.133 Conf. Final
    8 CHV. 16 5 2 9 17 1.063 Conf. Semis


    Season 2008:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 HOU. 15 7 4 4 25 1.667 Conf. Semis
    2 CHI. 17 7 6 4 27 1.588 Conf. Final
    3 CLB. 17 8 3 6 27 1.588 Won MLS Cup!!!
    4 K.C. 17 6 6 5 24 1.412 Conf. Semis
    5 N.E. 17 6 3 8 21 1.235 Conf. Semis
    6 N.Y. 16 5 5 6 20 1.250 Made Cup Final.
    7 CHV. 16 5 3 8 18 1.125 Conf. Semis
    8 RSL. 15 3 6 6 15 1.000 Conf. Final


    Season 2007:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 D.C. 18 9 6 3 33 1.833 Conf. Semis
    2 HOU. 17 9 4 4 31 1.824 Won MLS Cup!!!
    3 N.E. 18 8 4 6 28 1.556 Made Cup Final.
    4 K.C. 16 6 5 5 23 1.438 Conf. Final
    5 N.Y. 18 7 3 8 24 1.333 Conf. Semis
    6 CHV. 18 6 3 9 21 1.167 Conf. Semis
    7 CHI. 18 5 5 8 20 1.111 Conf. Final
    8 DAL. 17 3 4 10 13 0.765 Conf. Semis


    Season 2006:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 DAL. 20 10 4 6 34 1.700 Conf. Semis
    2 D.C. 20 8 7 5 31 1.550 Conf. Final
    3 N.E. 20 8 7 5 31 1.550 Made Cup Final.
    4 CHV. 20 7 7 6 28 1.400 Conf. Semis
    5 CHI. 20 8 4 8 28 1.400 Conf. Semis
    6 HOU. 20 6 9 5 27 1.350 Won MLS Cup!!!
    7 COL. 20 4 6 10 18 0.900 Conf. Final
    8 N.Y. 20 3 8 9 17 0.850 Conf. Semis


    Season 2005:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 S.J. 20 11 6 3 39 1.950 Conf. Semis
    2 N.E. 20 10 5 5 35 1.750 Made Cup Final.
    3 D.C. 20 9 3 8 30 1.500 Conf. Final
    4 N.Y. 20 7 6 7 27 1.350 Conf. Semis
    5 CHI. 20 8 2 10 26 1.300 Conf. Semis
    6 DAL. 20 6 6 8 24 1.200 Conf. Semis
    7 L.A. 20 6 3 11 21 1.050 Won MLS Cup!!!
    8 COL. 20 5 5 10 20 1.000 Conf. Final


    Season 2004:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 K.C. 23 11 5 7 38 1.695 Made Cup Final.
    2 D.C. 23 9 8 6 35 1.521 Won MLS Cup!!!
    3 CLB. 23 810 5 34 1.478 Conf. Semis
    4 N.Y. 23 9 5 9 32 1.391 Conf. Semis
    5 COL. 23 7 9 7 30 1.304 Conf. Semis
    6 S.J. 23 7 8 8 29 1.261 Conf. Semis
    7 L.A. 23 6 9 8 27 1.174 Conf. Final
    8 N.E. 23 4 8 11 20 0.870 Conf. Final


    Season 2003:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 CHI. 24 13 6 5 45 1.875 Made Cup Final.
    2 S.J. 23 8 9 6 33 1.435 Won MLS Cup!!!
    3 N.E. 23 8 8 7 32 1.391 Conf. Final
    4 D.C. 23 8 7 8 31 1.348 Conf. Semis
    5 COL. 24 8 7 9 31 1.292 Conf. Semis
    6 K.C. 23 7 8 8 29 1.261 Conf. Final
    7 N.Y. 23 7 7 9 28 1.217 Conf. Semis
    8 L.A. 23 5 6 12 21 0.913 Conf. Semis
  10. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Projection by Regular Season Series
    - revised after East K.O. Game (Oct-31).

    Updated after the end of 2012 Regular Season, differences against last week are highlighted in RED, San Jose are now the favorites to hoist MLS Cup 2012: ;)

    Eastern Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Actual: Houston advance 2-0)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Houston advance)
    2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; D.C. United advance)

    Conference Final:​
    2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Houston to MLS Cup Final)​

    Western Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; L.A. advance)​

    Conference Semis:​
    1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; San Jose advance)
    2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle(Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; R.S.L. advance)

    Conference Final:​
    1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​

    MLS Cup Final 2012:​
    San Jose vs. Houston(Season Series: 0-1; Houston win MLS Cup!!)

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
  11. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
    - revised after West K.O. Game (Nov-1st).

    Quick Notes:
    • Houston are the "favorites" now.
    • Prediction Accuracy so far: 50%:
    # Series Predicted
    Winners
    Actual
    Winners
    Hit/Miss?
    1 East KO Chicago Houston Miss
    2 West KO L.A. L.A Hit
    Total 1 Hit / 2 Series (50%)


    Eastern Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advance 2-0.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Houston advance)
    2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; D.C. United advance)

    Conference Final:​
    2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Houston to MLS Cup Final)​


    Western Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advance 2-1.)​

    Conference Semis:​
    1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; San Jose advance)
    2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; R.S.L. advance)

    Conference Final:​
    1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Regular Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​


    MLS Cup Final 2012:​
    San Jose vs. Houston(Regular Season Series: 0-1; Houston win MLS Cup!!)


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    profiled repped this.
  12. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
  13. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Let's continue from where we left off previously, posting the "playoffs teams only" standings for 2002-1996:

    2002:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 24 14 3 7 45 1.875 Won MLS Cup!!!
    2 S.J. 24 13 1 10 40 1.667 Conf. Semis
    3 COL. 24 11 4 9 37 1.542 Conf. Final
    4 N.E. 20 8 2 10 26 1.300 Made Cup Final.
    5 DAL. 22 7 7 8 28 1.273 Conf. Semis
    6 K.C. 22 7 7 8 28 1.273 Conf. Semis
    7 CHI. 20 7 2 11 23 1.150 Conf. Semis
    8 CLB. 20 6 4 10 22 1.100 Conf. Final


    2001:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 CHI. 17 9 3 5 30 1.765 Conf. Final
    2 CLB. 18 8 5 5 29 1.611 Conf. Semis
    3 MIA. 15 7 3 5 24 1.600 Conf. Final
    4 S.J. 16 6 5 5 23 1.438 Won MLS Cup!!!
    5 L.A. 16 6 4 6 22 1.375 Made Cup Final.
    6 N.Y. 15 6 1 8 19 1.267 Conf. Semis
    7 DAL. 17 5 4 8 19 1.118 Conf. Semis
    8 K.C. 18 6 1 11 19 1.056 Conf. Semis


    2000:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 N.Y. 20 12 1 7 37 1.850 Conf. Final
    2 K.C. 22 11 6 5 39 1.772 Won MLS Cup!!!
    3 CHI. 20 8 5 7 29 1.450 Made Cup Final.
    4 COL. 20 9 2 9 29 1.450 Conf. Semis
    5 DAL. 20 8 2 10 26 1.300 Conf. Semis
    6 T.B. 22 8 3 11 27 1.227 Conf. Semis
    7 N.E. 16 5 2 9 19 1.188 Conf. Semis
    8 L.A. 20 6 5 9 23 1.150 Conf. Final


    1999:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 D.C. 20 12 3 5 39 1.950 Won MLS Cup!!!
    2 DAL. 20 8 6 6 30 1.500 Conf. Final
    3 COL. 20 9 3 8 30 1.500 Conf. Semis
    4 L.A. 20 8 5 7 29 1.450 Made Cup Final.
    5 CLB. 20 7 6 7 27 1.350 Conf. Final
    6 CHI. 20 6 7 7 25 1.250 Conf. Semis
    7 T.B. 20 4 8 8 20 1.000 Conf. Semis
    8 MIA. 20 5 4 11 19 0.950 Conf. Semis


    1998:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 20 13 2 5 41 2.050 Conf. Final
    2 D.C. 20 10 5 5 35 1.750 Made Cup Final.
    3 CHI. 20 10 2 8 32 1.600 Won MLS Cup!!!
    4 DAL. 20 9 2 9 29 1.450 Conf. Semis
    5 N.Y. 20 9 0 11 27 1.350 Conf. Semis
    6 CLB. 20 7 3 10 24 1.200 Conf. Final
    7 MIA. 20 7 1 12 23 1.150 Conf. Semis
    8 COL. 20 6 3 11 21 1.050 Conf. Semis


    1997:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 D.C. 25 13 7 5 46 1.840 Won MLS Cup!!!
    2 K.C. 25 13 5 7 44 1.760 Conf. Semis
    3 L.A. 25 12 4 9 40 1.600 Conf. Semis
    4 N.E. 25 9 7 9 34 1.360 Conf. Semis
    5 T.B. 25 9 4 12 31 1.240 Conf. Semis
    6 DAL. 25 8 5 12 29 1.160 Conf. Final
    7 CLB. 25 8 5 12 29 1.160 Conf. Final
    8 COL. 25 7 5 13 26 1.040 Made Cup Final.


    1996:
    #Team P W D LPts Ppg. Playoffs Outcome
    1 L.A. 25 13 5 7 44 1.760 Made Cup Final.
    2 T.B. 24 12 4 8 40 1.667 Conf. Final
    4 DAL. 25 10 7 8 37 1.480 Conf. Semis
    3 D.C. 25 11 2 12 35 1.400 Won MLS Cup!!!
    5 CLB. 25 9 6 16 33 1.320 Conf. Semis
    6 N.Y. 25 9 4 12 31 1.240 Conf. Semis
    7 K.C. 25 8 6 11 30 1.200 Conf. Final
    8 S.J. 24 6 8 10 26 1.083 Conf. Semis


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Accuracies of Predictions, though 2011:
    Season Champions
    "Predicted"
    (Real Champs & Rank in PO Teams-only Table)
    Actual
    Playoffs
    Outcome
    Runners-up
    "Predicted"
    (Real Finalist & Rank in PO Teams-only Table)
    Actual
    Playoffs
    Outcome
    Champions
    Spotted
    Finalist(s)
    Spotted
    2011 L.A. (L.A.,#1) Won MLS Cup! CLB. (HOU.,#8) Wild Card Rd Yes 1
    2010 L.A. (COL.,#4) Conf. Final N.Y. (DAL.,#8) Conf. Semis No. 0
    2009 L.A. (RSL.,#5) Made Final. N.E. (L.A.,#1) Conf. Semis No. 1
    2008 HOU. (CLB.,#3) Conf. Semis CHI. (N.Y.,#6) Conf. Final No. 0
    2007 D.C. (HOU.,#2) Conf. Semis HOU. (N.E.,#3) Won MLS Cup! No. 1
    2006 DAL. (HOU.,#6) Conf. Semis D.C. (N.E.,#3) Conf. Final No. 0
    2005 S.J. (L.A.,#7) Conf. Semis N.E. (N.E.,#2) Made Final. No. 1
    2004 K.C. (D.C.,#2) Made Final. D.C. (K.C.,#1) Won MLS Cup! No. 2
    2003 CHI. (S.J.,#2) Made Final. S.J. (CHI.,#1) Won MLS Cup! No. 2
    2002 L.A. (L.A.,#1) Won MLS Cup! N.E. (N.E.,#4) Made Final. Yes 2
    2001 CHI. (S.J.,#4) Conf. Final CLB. (L.A.,#5) Conf. Semis No. 0
    2000 N.Y. (K.C.,#2) Conf. Final K.C. (CHI.,#3) Won MLS Cup! No 1
    1999 D.C. (D.C.,#1) Won MLS Cup! DAL. (L.A.,#4) Conf. Final Yes 1
    1998 L.A. (CHI.,#3) Conf. Final D.C. (D.C.,#2) Made Final. No. 1
    1997 D.C. (D.C.,#1) Won MLS Cup! K.C. (COL.,#8) Conf. Semis Yes 1
    1996 L.A. (D.C.,#4) Made Final. T.B. (L.A.,#1) Conf. Final No. 1
    Total L.A. rules with 7 titles!! :thumbsup: N.E. still rues with 3 final losses :cry: 4 Champs out of 16 Seasons (25%) 15 Finalists out of 16 Finals/32 Possible Teams (46.88%)


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    “Predicted” Play-off Successes vs. Actual (through 2011):
    Rank Club Champions
    (Actual)
    Runners-up
    (Actual)
    Total Final
    Appearances
    (Actual)
    Remarks
    1 L.A. 7 (3) 0 (4) 7 (7) Almost won half of the titles!!
    2 D.C. 3 (4) 3 (1) 6 (5)
    3 K.C. 1 (1) 2 (1) 3 (2)
    4 N.Y. 1 (0) 1 (1) 2 (1) Congratulations!!
    5 HOU. 1 (2) 1 (1) 2 (3)
    6 S.J. 1 (2) 1 (0) 2 (2)
    7 CHI. 1 (1) 1 (2) 2 (3)
    8 DAL. 1 (0) 1 (1) 2 (1) Congratulations!!
    9 N.E. 0 (0) 3 (4) 3 (4)
    10 CLB. 0 (1) 2 (0) 2 (1)
    11 T.B. 0 (0) 1 (0) 1 (0)
    12 COL. 0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (2) How dare you steal my title!
    13 RSL. 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (1) How dare you steal my title!
    14 SEA. 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0)
    Total16 (16)16 (16)32 (32)


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Fun Notes for your reading pleasure please:

    1. Highest Accuracies in Predictions: 2002, spot on with Champions (L.A.) / Runners-up (N.E.).

    2. Lowest Accuracies in Predictions: 2001, 06, 08, 10: No finalists spotted.

    3. N.Y. and Dallas would have "won" their first MLS Cups based on this model.

    4. Colorado and RSL would not have won their MLS Cups here.

    5. New England would still have most final losses at 3, winning none.

    6. Apart of 2002, 2003 & 2004 were the only other seasons that saw 2 Finalists predicted correctly.

    7. The last champions predicted correctly was L.A. in 2011.

    8. The last runners-up predicted correctly was N.E. in 2005.

    9. The model has correctly predicted 5 Finalists in the first 5 seasons (& 11 in the first 9).

    10. D.C. would have made 3 straight finals, winning 2 in their '96-99 "dynasty".

    11. L.A./D.C. would have totally monopolized the first 4 seasons of the league.

    12. 8 Supporters' Shield winners would have gone on to win the MLS Cup in this model ('97, ’98, 99, 02, 05, 07, 10, 11), versus the 6 in actual ('97, 99, 00, 02, 08, 11).

    13. Another 3 SS winners would have finished as MLS Cup runners-up (’96, ’00, ‘06), versus just 1 in actual ('03).

    14. The largest "upset" would have been N.Y. in 2000, winning the MLS Cup as 3rd-placed team in SS Table. (In fact, all other predicted champions were in the Top-2 of SS Table in each season)

    15. The lowest seed to reach a final would have been Columbus in 2011, as the 9th-placed team in SS Table.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comments / Corrections / Compliments are most welcomed...
  14. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
    - revised after Conf. Semis 1st leg (Nov-4).

    Quick Notes:
    • Houston are still the "favorites" now.
    • Prediction Accuracy so far: 66.67%:
    # Series Predicted
    Winners
    Actual
    Winners
    Hit/Miss?
    1 East KO Chicago Houston Miss
    2 West KO L.A. L.A Hit
    3 East Conf. Semi #1
    (in-progress)
    Houston Houston leading 2-0 Hit for now...?
    4 East Conf. Semi #2
    (in-progress)
    D.C. 1-1, advantage N.Y.
    in 2nd leg @ home
    Miss for now...?
    5 West Conf. Semi #1
    (in-progress)
    S.J. S.J. leading 1-0 Hit for now...?
    6 West Conf. Semi #2
    (in-progress)
    RSL. 0-0, advantage RSL.
    in 2nd leg @ home
    Hit for now...?
    Total 4 Hits? / 6 Series
    (66.67%)


    Eastern Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advance 2-0.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston leading 2-0...)
    2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: N.Y. 1-1 D.C. in 2nd-leg @ home, very slight advantage)

    Conference Final:​
    2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Houston to MLS Cup Final)​


    Western Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advance 2-1.)​

    Conference Semis:​
    1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: San Jose leading 1-0...)
    2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: RSL. 0-0 Seattle in 2nd-leg @ home, very slight advantage)

    Conference Final:​
    1.San Jose vs. 2.RSL (Regular Season Series: 3-1, 2-1, 5-0; San Jose to MLS Cup Final)​


    MLS Cup Final 2012:​
    San Jose vs. Houston(Regular Season Series: 0-1; Houston win MLS Cup!!)


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    profiled repped this.
  15. Cowtown Felipe

    Cowtown Felipe Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Location:
    Fort Worth, TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Country:
    United States
    A playoff system is a good way to keep the best team of the season from being the champion.
    Saltenya94 repped this.
  16. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2000
    Location:
    Nirvana
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Country:
    United States
    But calling the team who finishes first the best team, when all teams know it's ultimately not the top prize is wrong as well; you'd see a different approach in a lot of games if there was no playoffs at the end, only finishing top of the standings.
    ImaPuppy and Jasonma repped this.
  17. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2000
    Location:
    Nirvana
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Country:
    United States
    Got another upset for the table.
    ImaPuppy repped this.
  18. ImaPuppy

    ImaPuppy Member+

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Location:
    Using too many parentheses
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Country:
    American Samoa
    Could Dallas fans be anymore butt-hurt over things that never concern them (like playoffs, or being the "best" team?)
    Jasonma repped this.
  19. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Yes, am 50/50 tonight, a hit for Houston but a miss for S.J.

    Other implications from tonight's results:

    1. The re-match of 2011 final is still alive... :cool:

    2. With the exits of S.J. (SS winners) & K.C. (USOC winners), 2 CCL spots will be up for grabs by the remaining 6 playoffs teams (soon to be down to 4 tomorrow), no teams will be able to qualify based on regular season finishes alone (similar scenario as 2010).

    [​IMG]
  20. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
    - revised after Conf. Semis 2nd leg, 1st night (Nov-7).

    Quick Notes:
    • Houston are still the "favorites" now.
    • Prediction Accuracy so far: 50.00%:
    # Series Predicted
    Winners
    Actual
    Winners
    Hit/Miss?
    1 East KO Chicago Houston Miss
    2 West KO L.A. L.A Hit
    3 East Conf. Semi #1 Houston Houston Hit
    4 East Conf. Semi #2
    (in-progress)
    D.C. 1-1, advantage N.Y.
    in 2nd leg @ home
    Miss for now...?
    5 West Conf. Semi #1 S.J. L.A. Miss
    6 West Conf. Semi #2
    (in-progress)
    RSL. 0-0, advantage RSL.
    in 2nd leg @ home
    Hit for now...?
    Total 3 Hits? / 6 Series
    (50.00%)


    Eastern Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advanced 2-0.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)
    2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: N.Y. 1-1 D.C. in 2nd-leg @ home, very slight advantage)

    Conference Final:​
    2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Houston to MLS Cup Final)​


    Western Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2)
    2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: RSL. 0-0 Seattle in 2nd-leg @ home, very slight advantage)

    Conference Final:​
    2.RSL vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-1, 2-3, 2-1; RSL to MLS Cup Final)​


    MLS Cup Final 2012:​
    RSL vs. Houston (Regular Season Series: 0-1; Houston win MLS Cup!!)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
  21. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    By the way, L.A. have now made their 4th successive conference finals since 2009.

    Is this run only behind the 2 below?

    1. D.C.'s 4-straight trips to final in '96-99, &
    2. N.E.'s 6-straight trips to conf. final in '02-07?
  22. ImaPuppy

    ImaPuppy Member+

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Location:
    Using too many parentheses
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Country:
    American Samoa
    Looks like in succession it may be. Impressive indeed.

    The Dynamo have also now made 5 conference finals in their 7 year existence, and if they advance that will be 4 MLS Cup appearances in 7 seasons.

    Pretty staggering statistics from L.A. and Houston.

    Also note that the Dynamo have done this with one of the consistently middle-of-the-road or lower-end pay scales in the league.
    henryo repped this.
  23. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Wow, all four home teams have been eliminated in the 2nd leg of the conference final, is that a first for the league?
  24. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
    - revised after Conf. Semis 2nd leg, 2nd night (Nov-8).

    Quick Notes:
    • Seattle are the new "favorites" now!!
    • Prediction Accuracy so far: 50.00%:
    # Series Predicted
    Winners
    Actual
    Winners
    Hit/Miss?
    1 East KO Chicago Houston Miss
    2 West KO L.A. L.A Hit
    3 East Conf. Semi #1 Houston Houston Hit
    4 East Conf. Semi #2 D.C. D.C. Hit
    5 West Conf. Semi #1 S.J. L.A. Miss
    6 West Conf. Semi #2 RSL. Seattle Miss
    Total 3 Hits / 6 Series
    (50.00%)

    Eastern Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advanced 2-0.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)
    2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: D.C. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)

    Conference Final:​
    2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Houston to MLS Cup Final!)​

    Western Conference:
    K.O.:​
    4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.)

    Conference Semis:​
    1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2)
    2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: Seattle advanced on aggregate goals 1-0)

    Conference Final:​
    2.Seattle vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 2-0, 4-0, 0-1; Seattle to MLS Cup Final!)​

    MLS Cup Final 2012:​
    (SS#7) Seattle vs. (SS#9) Houston (Regular Season Series: 2-0; Seattle win MLS Cup!!)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
  25. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Wow, looks like both home teams (D.C. & Seattle) will likely be eliminated in the 2nd leg of the conference final as well.

    If that happens, it's certainly going to be a first in the league history, that no home teams have advance in (4) conference semi-finals and (2) conference finals.

    L.A. is the only team to advance from home in 2012 playoffs so far...

    Not much home advantage to talk about indeed (for the higher seeds).

    The playoffs system is simply fantastic.

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