MLS Playoffs, semi finals

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Justin O, Nov 13, 2003.

  1. Justin O

    Justin O Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 1998
    Club:
    Seattle
    This is only from 5 or 6 bookmakers so far:

    Market Averages
    San Jose vs Kansas City 2.56 2.95 2.47
    Chicago vs New England 2.68 2.97 2.39

    Highest Prices
    San Jose vs Kansas City 2.71 3.00 2.75
    Chicago vs New England 2.90 3.10 2.60

    Both home teams look good to me, though I should note that I don't know where that 2.90 comes from for Chicago. The higest prices specifically cited for Chicago so far is 2.50, which I'll also take.


  2. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2002
    Location:
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    Something is fishy about the SJ-KC odds. You would think that SJ would be more heavily favored because they are the home team. Perhaps the smart money is going down on KC, especially if Corrales, DeRosario, and maybe Agoos (didn't he hurt his hamstring last week?) are out.
  3. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

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    New England Revolution
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    No. They've just screwed up again. NE is also favored.
    Remember the thread about the lack of resources devoted to MLS?
  4. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

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    I just grabbed SJ at 2.6

    I'm going to lay off the other one. It's bad karma to bet against your team.


  5. Justin O

    Justin O Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 1998
    Club:
    Seattle
    In case anyone wants an example of the above, last year during the first round of the playoffs (first games I believe) many bookmakers had all the home and away teams reversed. So you had 8th seeded KC favored away to 1st seeded LA! I took LA at something like 3.00, won and they paid out. So don't ever assume the bookies know something you don't when in comes to MLS. If you're posting here on Bigsoccer, you're probably better informed than the bookmakers about MLS.
  6. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2001
    Location:
    Blue Springs, MO
    You might want to check the KC forum for some other info. It really isn't that "fishy".

    Anyway, it's been the history of MLS for home teams to win non-final deciders. That said, of the 3 teams that have won deciding games on the road, two of them are SJ and KC. Of course KC is the road team in this one.

    As MLS has no history in one-off non-finals, I'll again take the home teams.

    I pray MLS can return to the sensibility of First-to-5 over this contrived, garbage system of playoffs. Un fortunately, if both home teams win we will definitely see the same format next year. The aguement being that the right two teams make it to LA.

    It's crap no matter how you cover the smell.
  7. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

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    New England Revolution
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    United States
    The dreaded draw raises it's head again.
    No one predicted 90 minute ties.
    This is what kills me in soccer betting. I have a natural inclination to not bet ties. I usually have a positive opinion on one of the two teams, or I pass.
  8. RobB

    RobB New Member

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    Aug 8, 2003
    Location:
    Birmingham
    Both games to end 0-0. 100/1. If your watching the game you`re betting on, you side with both keepers to keep clean sheets. And wayward strikers are useful too.
  9. RobB

    RobB New Member

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    Aug 8, 2003
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    Birmingham
    With 4 of the 10 play-off games ending in draws (1x0-0, 2x1-1 and 1x2-2) a 2-2 draw (15.00) for the final looks good, especially with SJ scoring and conceding (they seem to concede 2 each game). Chicago have kept 3 clean sheets in the play-offs but let in 9 goals in the two games previous. SJ scored 4 at kansas but let in 3 in LA (two of the play-off teams). So how about 4-4 at 100/1. A repeat scoreline of the final a few years ago.
  10. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

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    A tie looks like a good bet, but i'm dubious of that many goals.
    Chris Armas is playing the best soccer of his career.
  11. RobB

    RobB New Member

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    Obviously 4-4 is very unlikely but if you look at San Jose`s results their name seems to be on the trophy. They`ll probably let in a couple so if they are going to win they will need to score 2 or 3 in the 90, just force OT. One way to cover the bases for a draw is one unit on each score-draw, 2-2,3-3,4-4. Instead of just taking the draw at 3.20. Assume SJ will force OT at least and they won`t concede less than 2 goals but Chicago being the better team will have their share of the play and won`t lose in normal time, it should be a high scoring draw.
  12. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

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    New England Revolution
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    United States
    What are the odds on 2-2?
  13. RobB

    RobB New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2003
    Location:
    Birmingham
    At gamebookers:

    2-2 15/1 3-3 50/1 4-4 100/1
  14. RobB

    RobB New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2003
    Location:
    Birmingham
    When it went 4-2 with 20 minutes to go I thought 4-4 was on the cards, and Chicago had a couple of chances to make it 4-4. Still, it made a fun bet anyway and got closer to being a winning bet than I`d expected.

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