1. Save 40-80% on great soccer jerseys. Shop today at BigSoccer Shop!

Only NY Cosmos and Orlando City should make sense as the 20th team

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by vettefredje redded, Jan 7, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
Moderators: Sport Billy
  1. vettefredje redded

    vettefredje redded Red Card

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2011
    Club:
    PSV Eindhoven
    Only NY Cosmos and Orlando City should make sense as the 20th team. Who agrees? Those two are the big favorites, NY Cosmos because they're one of the most famous names in worldwide soccer, and Orlando City because they're the most successful US soccer club not in MLS and because Florida is the most populous state without a MLS team.
     


  2. MiWilson

    MiWilson Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2011
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Country:
    United States
    I completely agree. 100%. The cosmos brand and a team in new york city is inevitable. Frankly, I think a team with SSS in the city of new york would be great for the league. Orlando city has amazing attendance numbers for a USL team and the market to make it truly viable. If people doubt Orlando as a good market just watch the game film on the usl championship held there. Tremendous atmosphere with thousands of passionate fans. Other potential cities that may be viable after these two teams are in are San Antonio, St. Louis and Indy.
     
  3. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2004
    Location:
    Georgia
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Country:
    United States
    they both make sense. MLS is far from closing up expansion. there are too many crucial markets that are left untapped. For one, the Cosmos is the hot name brand that can't be left ignored, Florida for the reason you said, but you also have the "south" (Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, New Orleans, Nashville, or Birmingham), there probably should be another team in TX (San Antonio, El Paso, or Austin), another team in the Southwest (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Albuquerque...you could throw in Oklahoma and Omaha too), and another team in the Midwest (Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Ottawa, Indianapolis, Saint Louis, or Minnesota).
     
  4. evangel

    evangel Member+

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    Keep in mind that there is enough space for both teams. It's not much of a secret that the league would gladly go beyond 20 teams if there are still good bids available.

    The only question would be who gets in first.
     


  5. zensum

    zensum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2008
    Location:
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Ideally two teams in Florida, two in the non-Florida Southeast, one more at a minimum in the Southwest, San Diego eventually in Cali, two more in the Midwest, and NY2 and possibly even Chicago 2 down the road and one more Canadian team.

    What's feasible right now?

    None of it but since the league wants to get to 20 it's trying a unique league driven strategy to get NY2/maybe F.cosmos in place.

    How long will NY2 have the inside track?

    Only until it comes to fruition or another of the desired cities in the regions cited above reaches the finish line.

    It's wide open, first come first serve. The league is shepherding NY2 but that assures nothing in this city. The NFL and Bloomberg were behind the NY Jets in Manhattan but it just wasn't possible to pull it off.

    It's 19 for now with 20 and more as soon as candidates are ready.

    That's the reality don't be fooled by league spin.
     
  6. Donnie_Narco

    Donnie_Narco New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2012
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Country:
    United States
    I agree that both make sense as expansion teams, but if a city like Atlanta or Detroit or even a city that's never heard from like Milwaukee or St. Louis puts together a good bid with owners, they'll be a contender. To get an MLS franchise, you need A) a rich owner, B) a suitable stadium, C) a decent-sized city. That's all.
     
  7. Papadop

    Papadop Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2010
    Location:
    Metro Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Country:
    United States
    Even though we only had 11,000 there that night...many have said it was as loud as any Bowl Game played there.

    The fans have done their part. It's up to the 1%'s now.
     
  8. RedRover

    RedRover BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2007
    You forgot one other. Don Garber and the league having a massive hard on for your city. That might be the most important one of all. Everyone knows he has one for NY2.
     
  9. fifty7

    fifty7 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2010
    Location:
    Long Island
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Country:
    United States
    It seems pretty clear to me that the Cosmos and Orlando City are likely to be 20 and 21, whatever the order may be (perhaps simultaneously). The real questions are who will be 22 (Detroit? Atlanta? Minnesota? Las Vegas? I would love St. Louis, but ownership/stadium?), and will MLS settle for having 11 teams per conference or will they go with an even 12 per conference and sit pretty at 24.

    24 teams with 34 games makes sense to me. You play each conference opponent twice, and you play half the other conference twice (which half of the other conference you play is determined by whether you finished in the top or bottom half of your conference last season). Cuts down on travel, provides a "balanced" asymmetric schedule, and if you give both conference first-place finishers CCL berths, it gives the regular season some really sizable meaning. It also sets up a future expansion much farther down the road should MLS ever think of going to 30 or 32 teams, where both conferences could each be their own league, with East/West matchups only happening in Playoffs/Open Cup/Canadian Championship/CCL play.


    Of course, before that fantasyland of mine ever has even a fraction of a chance of becoming reality, we'd have to figure out what the realistic candidates there are after Orlando and New York.
     
  10. fifty7

    fifty7 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2010
    Location:
    Long Island
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Country:
    United States
    Also, I think it should be noted that each expansion since Toronto has involved an announcement that took place two years before the team's inaugural season in MLS. Since 2014 is the earliest an expansion can happen (given the new scheduling format), perhaps we can hope to hear about team(s) 20/21 later this year?
     
  11. Jossed

    Jossed Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2011
    Club:
    Ft Lauderdale Strikers
    AC St. Louis during their only year of existence drew 2,767 in a 6,000 seat stadium back in 2010. They had a good opening crowd and then their attendance went into the toilet.

    I know I read that if it were MLS, the St. Louis soccer fans would of showed up. But the "cradle of American soccer" should be able to support even a lowly NASL/D2 team knowing that it would look good to MLS.
     
  12. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays Copy editing is now my hobby.

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2007
    Location:
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Country:
    United States
    They didn't show up for the original NASL. Their last year, 1977, they averaged 9,126, when half the league was doing more and on a serious uptick. Before that year, they never averaged more than 8,000, and most years were around 6,000.
     
  13. zensum

    zensum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2008
    Location:
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    And these two most likely candidates are playing in what stadiums exactly???
     
  14. fifty7

    fifty7 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2010
    Location:
    Long Island
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Country:
    United States

    The stadium in NYC that MLS is going balls deep to try and build, and the stadium in Orlando that results partly from the 9-digit renovation funds for the Citrus Bowl provided by the city. I'm not just talking out my ass here....
     
  15. zensum

    zensum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2008
    Location:
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    And both of these stadiums are "likely"???

    Within what term? One year? Two? Longer?
     
  16. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Location:
    Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Country:
    Nigeria
    They're as likely as any other market... which is to say that I don't see any other market that is past the speculative stages at this point or have anything imminent in the offing. I'd say that NY is the likeliest since it's the only market that's being worked by an entity that we can confirm is truly serious at this point,... MLS itself. So at the moment MLS is trying to create their own window of opportunity in NY until the other markets are prepared to come forward. Personally I don't see any markets that might be ready before 2014, so MLS can play their preference until it becomes an immediate concern to the ownerships that they might be turning down more viable candidates. That, not being the case for the forseable future, NY is clearly the most likely candidate for the simple fact that that is how the league wants it.

    I think that the original Orlando argument kinda piggybacks off of this. I don't think any market is likely in the two-year window that MLS is going to try to work this NY bid so really Orlando, or any other bid likely would still be be a top contender for 21 if they had something ready by 2015. After exhausting the most successful and MLS-ready D2 franchises expansion might be moving at a much slower pace much as MLS might want to keep up it's momentum.

    The important thing to realize is not all bids are created equally. Alot of the problems with AC St. Louis has vindicated the league who avoided getting in bed with Jeff Cooper in favor of Sugarman in Philly (and they were criticized at the time for it). The league has expanded quickly but not as recklessly as early MLS or even NASL might have. I don't know much about Orlando's potential ownership group, but I do know that MLS seems to have little problem with Sela Sport and they've likely been vetted by now and we also know that Glazer is lurking about in there as well.
     
  17. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays Copy editing is now my hobby.

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2007
    Location:
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Country:
    United States
    Citrus Bowl reno is scheduled to begin to 2014.

    As for NYC2, they don't even have a location, much less a design.
     
  18. zensum

    zensum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2008
    Location:
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Some of this I agree with.

    Don't quite see however in the real world how MLS being in charge of one venture makes it more likely. One could argue that other elements are more important i.e. financing (both strength of ownership group and stadium financing plan), support of government/community, ease of building in particular markets, solid overall plan.

    Not clear where Orlando/Detroit/Atlanta/Minnesota currently are but likely past the speculative stage. Each I think has an ownership group (not sure of the strength in Orlando) and a stadium plan though it's unclear if any of the stadium plans will pan out and none appear likely in the next couple of years except maybe Orlando.

    F.cosmos supporters are putting a lot of stock in Sela Sports based on one comment from Don Garber after an initial meeting but out of all the various ownership groups this one is the biggest mystery. How much money do they have? How much money do they intend to commit to this project? Who will be running this project on the ground in New York? What is their overall plan? How long are they in for (Kemsley bailed after 2 years, Johnson apparently even earlier)? How well do they know the New York market (sports/financial/political)? There's something of a leap of faith involved here and an real ability to objectively characterize their "bid" as the most speculative at least until some of those devilish details are clarified.
     
  19. Blackbox

    Blackbox Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2007
    Location:
    Indiana/Tennessee
    Country:
    United States
    If the standards are to have a big name or be a hot division 2 team, then MLS would have admitted Kemsley's money wasting, stadium-less Cosmos before we knew how fragile the facade was. Or your 1999 US Open Cup champions, the Rochester Rhinos. Or how about the historically successful, well attended Charleston Battery? The famous name alone will not carry a new Cosmos or MLS to success. And past D2 teams that once seemed like obvious MLS members are now afterthoughts. It's going to be the right people in charge of the groups that carry them to the majors - not a couple of over simplified standards.
     
  20. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Location:
    Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Country:
    Nigeria
    MLS's situation in NY has always hinged on a stadium deal. MLS will determine the ownership operation that they want in place after they have a stadium bc in this instance the market is the real driver rather than the owner/investor. All bids up to this point have been driven by the potential investors coming forward first. But what we have here is an expansion process that does not follow the normal course, at least the course established in the Garber era. It's actually more like an MLS 1.0 style of process where it's market or footprint-driven rather than investor-driven.

    Now the thing that also makes me say that the Cosmos/Sela will likely be involved is because it makes sense to make use of an established brand if at all possible, especially when you're determined to move a franchise into that market anyway. MLS was set on NY2 for #20 back when the prevalent rumor had the Cosmos as a globetrotting barnstorming team. Even lacking any serious investors they were the ones soliciting ppl like the Wilpons who showed tentative interest at best. It's a bit like how Mitt Romney is the frontrunner despite being unable to break 25% if you follow the money it's clear why MLS wants in. Until something breaks MLS' interest that's where the likely expansion will come. Now ppl have pointed out that bigger and better folks have come along trying to build a stadium in NY and that's true, but MLS has reason to feel that the reward is worth the effort.

    So don't get too hung up on what the Cosmos/Sela are doing right now, bc at the moment this bid is not about them, and I think that that's the real point that Garber is trying to make when he repeats that the Cosmos were not the frontrunner and that there never was a frontrunner. This expansion season is about NY and NY alone. Now if everything goes to plan then I think that they'll likely be involved bc MLS would like to own that property bc they've seen first hand the power of successful branding. Kemsley didn't just walk off on his own without some impetus that MLS would rather have him gone, this has been documented; they liked and wanted the brand but not Kemsley. They have that situation more or less where they want it. Now they want the market and they're taking the necessary steps to get it.

    It's to the point that they're blatantly ignoring positive movement in other markets. Case in point, Sacremento where local media was intrigued by a proposal to build a SSS there. When they called Dan Courtemanche for comment he said basically that while it was encouraging, that they are only currently have interest in NY. This is a very different approach from recent expansion processes where they have gone out of their way to make every prospective market seem "in play". Like two years ago when Miami, then Montreal were the front runner until they both dropped out and the bids went to Portland and Vancouver. At no point did they not nurture interests from any of the other bids even though there was a clear hierarchy to the whole process. Or the following year when they basically played Philadelphia off against St. Louis. But in this case no other market is being actively nurtured. They're being very passive to them. The only instances where I see the sort of nurturing that we're used to is to groups within the NY market.

    People seem to be under the impression that this is an open bidding process like the ones that brought us Portland, Vancouver or Phili; it's not. Right now it's a NY process and for any other city to have a chance MLS' tunnel-vision has to die. Now maybe that will come from a lack of success, or lack of truly viable investors, but it won't come for at least another year bc I believe that they've cleared their calendars all the way to 2014, possibly even 2015 to get NY2 in. MLS isn't stupid. They have very good reasons to want a second NY market and the biggest one is television revenue and an increased standing for their next tv negotiation. They have attendance more or less where they want it, but they desperately want to build thier leverage in negotiating tv rights and NY2 will be a big piece in that puzzle. Both of their tv contracts will be up by 2015 by which time they'll be hoping to have a second NY team. This is not an accident or a passing interest. Every other market will have to wait until MLS is done trying to get a second team in NY. Fair or unfair, that's what it is.
     
  21. SteveUSSF_ref8

    SteveUSSF_ref8 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2010
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Country:
    United States
    In my opinion the league will cap expansion at 22, till the next decade. Therefore this is now i see it coming down. Once the league realizes the hoops they will need to jump thru to built within NYC they will delay NY2, then move onto plan "b" being Orlando making them the the 20th team in 2014.

    When NY2 is ready they will be ready to expand beyond 20, making New York City the 21st franchise in 2016.

    At the same time they will not want to go forward with odd number of teams for scheduling purposes, also at the same they will need to take care of David Beckham's contract clause giving him ownership rights. This will be a very interesting choice provided he doesn't already have ownership in the Galaxy. But knowing he doesn't want to move his family from Los Angelles I see two
    choices here either San Diego or Las Vegas. Knowing the politics of building a stadium in San Diego and knowing their are plans in the works to built a stadium in Henderson, NV. My guess this makes Las Vegas the 22nd franchise in 2016.
     
  22. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Location:
    Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Country:
    Nigeria
    I think that that's the reason why they want NY2 right now. Because they don't want to feel pressured to expand beyond 20 at the moment. At some point they really do want to step back and work on stabilizing the league. There are still four markets owned, more or less, by two owners. There are still markets that they may have to move. There are still markets with dismal attendance issues and markets that want to build stadiums. There's still a playoff setup that's constantly in flux. MLS still takes forever to build their schedule. They're still building up their scouting networks which have gotten much better in recent years. They're still establishing the academies. They're trying to win CONCACAF to boost the reputation of the league which might help to not only attract fans but potential players who's national team coaches would have otherwise steered them away; this endeavor is hurt at some point by overexpansion without augmenting the talent pool.

    These are major issues and then you throw in the fact that they've been expanding incredibly rapidly in the space of five years. Now this is a positive influx of capital into the league, but not good if you want to work out the many unresolved issues that still exist within it.

    I really think that they want to pause, not stop, at 20 for awhile, that's why they need NY2 now. Now if they have to put off NY2 then alot of thier plans for the impending tv contract with both ESPN and NBC in three years will be a bit offset. By the time it comes to negotiate those two deals they will want to have plans in place for NY2. You'd then be right we're probably then looking at MLS being almost forced to go to 22 teams before they would like to. But I do think that MLS wants to avoid it. It doesn't mean that they want to stop at 20 or discourage any bids, but they just don't want to feel that 22 is a necessity in the near term.
     
  23. Orlando Rays

    Orlando Rays Copy editing is now my hobby.

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2007
    Location:
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Country:
    United States
    MLS is a lot more stable than you give it credit for. AEG has a few suitors to sell the Dynamo to, and already have half the team owned by Oscar de la Hoya.

    Though MLS obviously wants NYC2, if they can't get their act together for a 2014 expansion and Orlando's mayor decides he can build a stadium (or the fanbase makes a statement that is impossible to ignore), they could still give Orlando team #20. I think they would prefer having that 20th team for the World Cup year over waiting til after 2014 for NYC2 to be that #20.
     
  24. zensum

    zensum Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2008
    Location:
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Whenever the South and Florida are ready they're in. MLS is currently not a truly national league without teams in this important and growing region. National TV and marketing agreements suffer from this reality. The problem is that none of the cities from this region that they want to be in are ready or will be ready in the short term.

    So it's possibly NY2 with the league as always making a virtue out of necessity. The four major team sports leagues aren't all in Orlando but after Miami the second Florida team was always going to be up for grabs anyway so they have an opportunity here.

    All informed speculation as always but despite Don Garber's excellent framing and manipulation (in a positive way, lol) of the process it remains first come first serve.
     
  25. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Location:
    Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Country:
    Nigeria
    And what would Orlando, or Sacremento for that matter, give MLS that they don't get two-fold from most of their latest expansions in the past few years? Orlando have no natural rivals within the league; Sacremento has too many and frankly aren't really needed, there are already several very healthy fanbases within the league; it's not a market that moves the needle as far as the upcoming tv deal. All you have to do is look at the breakdown of this season's nationally televised games. For the first time MLS is moving towards a model that's targeted specifically at the strongest markets and audiences. They're done showcasing new markets; Montreal is getting snubbed completely this season and for the most part they're letting the Canadian broadcasters focus on those three teams. I don't think that having another expansion franchise in time for the WC is as important, or profitable, to them as having NY2 before the two tv deals are up.

    Granted Orlando does hold the card of being in the SE, but they're only one market. MLS would need at least one regional rival for their expansion to mean half as much to the league as NY2. Like I said before, if you haven't noticed this before, this year's expansion process is markedly different from previous years. This isn't being driven by interested parties but rather by MLS themselves for the forseeable future. I think that it may hold until the tv deal is up, that's their target. If they feel that hitting that mark is futile, then maybe they go in a different direction for the time being. But I don't think that this is a passing fancy and they won't back down from this easily. I don't think ppl fully appreciate what MLS feels is at stake if they don't get this now.
     
Moderators: Sport Billy
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page