Predict where the league will be 5, 10, and 15 years from now.

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by MattXG, Mar 14, 2014.

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  1. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    5 years (2019)

    Ave. Attendance: 25,000
    Salary Cap: 15 million dollars
    Biggest story: Expansion to Miami, Minnesota, Atlanta and San Antonio. LA2 bought by NFL owner using them for stadium leverage.

    10 years (2024)
    Ave Attendance: 40,000
    Salary Cap: 60 million dollars
    Biggest story: Death of the single entity structure. Replaced by structure more similar to NFL.Massive multi-billion dollar tv deal.

    15 years (2029)
    Ave Attendance: 60,000
    Salary Cap: 200 million dollars
    Biggest story: UEFA and MLS form some sort of Champions of Champions League.
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2014
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  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    hmmmmm not sure if serious. Just curious but is that salary cap in today's dollars? And these stadia increases are you seriously suggesting that teams expand their current stadia, and then for the most part immediately thereafter build all new, all within 15 years?

    Unless you live in Washington or Colorado, I know what you have imbibed is surely not legal.
  3. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    5 years: U.S. & Canada
    10 years: U.S. & Canada
    15 years: U.S. & Canada

    :D
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  4. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    1) Completely serious.
    2) Numbers made with inflation in mind. In today's dollars, maybe 50 mill and 130-150 mill?
    3) You're totally mistaken on the stadia. Vancouver's stadium is only used at half capacity right now. New England, Seattle, DCU, Atlanta all have much more capacity available today. Possibly Minnesota. Toronto is expanding. Chivas is gone. San Jose are moving to a bigger stadium that I think will get the 4th side within 10 years. I think LA2 will be very successful. I suspect Portland will get a new stadium within 15 years because there's just no way to expand the current one adequately.
    It will add up quickly as they bring bigger and bigger names to the league...
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2014


  5. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator Staff Member

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    Single entity won't die. That's what's keeping MLS from anti trust lawsuits. Otherwise, I like your optimism.
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  6. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    I am not completely mistaken about the stadia. To reach 40k in attendance with 24 teams you need to draw 16m people the max from the teams you mention are no where near enough to overcome this.

    DC is talking about building smaller in the Houston-NYRB range.

    Minnesota is talking an SSS from the Polhad/United group that will most likely be under 30k. Unless Wilff wins, then you have 67k or so available.

    Toronto is only growing to 30k

    Portland is in a very long lease at Providence Park, they could possibly get something new, but after forcing out the AAA baseball team to redo the stadium for them this may not fly at least not in 15 years.

    San Jose expansion would be endzone and would likely add no more than 4k. Assuming most seats are currently between the endlines.

    Simply put it is not feasible to get to 40k, even if you had 5 teams topping 60k. You would still need 11m from the remaining 19 or just over 34k each, meaning they must all expand (or replace) their current stadia.

    To get to 60k you basically need all teams in NFL size stadia. All that in 15 years? 50 years sure that is all possible, 15 not a chance.
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2014
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  7. skinut

    skinut Member+

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    Same idea as JasonMa. . .at all those junctures MLS will be in North America.
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  8. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    You forget the X-factor, larger stadiums are all around. Did you know the NFL, not that long ago, looked into starting a soccer league purely to get their stadiums more use?

    I suspect DC's stadium plans are done for a long time. I won't be surprised if they build a new stadium in conjunction with the Redskins.

    Orlando has the completely rebuilt Citrus Bowl. San Jose has Stanford. Arrowhead stadium, Cotton Bowl, Reliant Stadium, Sun Life...

    Teams need just to play one or two one offs in these stadiums to make that number and San Jose is proof that these guys will do this.

    Also, 50 years? You can't be serious. This is like a snowball, the bigger you get, the bigger you get faster. Unlike almost any other American sports league, this league can be even more popular globally than locally. This will help bring in more money and move things along even faster...
  9. CShine

    CShine Member

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    No major sport has ever tripled its attendance in a mere decade and a half. I expect solid growth for MLS but the original post is more than a bit fanciful.
  10. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    No I have not forgotten the X Factor. I am well aware of all major stadiums that exist in the US, being something of a sport nut. I also know that most every where you have mentioned teams are locked into long term deals with existing stadiums that will be expensive to break the lease on. Now perhaps if it does snow ball in the method you mention the cost of breaking the lease and renting the NFL or College stadium will be offset by the super di duper massive crowds. Then the local area is left with a white elephant of a soccer stadium, which begs the question why they would ever trust the team again after helping build and expand said stadium only to see it abandoned shortly thereafter.

    As for the NFL and its alleged soccer league, I am sure Hunt would have been the one to suggest that, and lo and behold here we are with HSG owning two teams in MLS neither of which now play in the football stadia managed by the Hunts football team.

    As for the number of one offs try again. Every 17k in addtional attendance at a one off increases the season average for the team by 1k. To get those other teams to 34k in attendance (on top of 5 teams averaging 60 to begin with) you basically need to have them playing 5 or more one offs each, and averaging 60k per one off. And that is just to get to a leaguewide 40k average. I am pretty certain at this point that you have no clue what it would actually take so good luck with that fantasy scenario.

    How about we agree to meet back here in five years time and see if we have even approached your five year plan.
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  11. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    How are we supposed to triple attendance when almost every MLS team is playing or planning to play in SSS under 30K.

    You honestly believe that after all this investment we've put in SSS over the last years, we're just going to blow them all up and build new NFL size stadiums all in the next 15 years?

    And a 6000% increase in salary cap? Wow ... Someone's been hitting the pipe hard ... I guess it is Friday
  12. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    I think its too soon to find an "old Stuart" picture from last night's Big Bang Theory on-line...
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  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    I'd like to see Garber's face when the union walks into the CBA talks later this year and asks for 15 mil cap ... :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::cry::cry:o_O
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  14. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    A decade ago Major League Soccer was a fledging American professional sports league of just 10 teams.

    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/06/4803068/mls-american-soccer-expanding.html#storylink=cpy

    There's a tipping point coming. We're getting close but we haven't hit it, yet. It will definitely come in the next 10 years.

    Btw, the 2019 salary cap would be based on the NEXT CBA agreement after the one they're currently working on. If you think that sounds crazy, you know NOTHING. Its a ceiling, not a floor.

    I admit the attendance numbers might be a bit lofty but things will be surprising for sure. As to whoever said, "Bubububu... no league has ever seen growth like that before!" Well, no other major league has come of age in this age of sports culture. No other league has developed in the digital age. No other league featured this kind of global sport in this global age. Things are different now. Look at that study that found in just 5 years, MLS has tracked down MLB amongst the nation's youth. Five years ago, they said, no one could have predicted that kind of growth.

    Also, I expect just as much, if not more growth, to come from outside of America as inside over the next 10 years. This will occur as MLS captures more and more globally recognizable names like a Messi or Ronaldo. Clubs like NYCFC, LAG and Miami will become globally recognized. I, also, am a true believer that America is due to come across a Michael Jordan/LeBron James/Michael Phelps freak of nature type American soccer player that will start in MLS in the next 10 years.

    I do believe, going forward from here, stadium expansion will replace stadium building as the new thing to do. How many stadiums did we build over the last 10 years? Pretty staggering really. I also think there will be large cooperation between NFL and MLS clubs as far as new stadium development goes. I think DC United's only hope is to strike a deal with Snyder, who, by the way, is thinking of a new stadium to replace the one that was just built in '97. I think the demand in Portland is so great something will be done to capture more of it, shortly

    "Bububu....the stadiums weren't built that long ago! People will be mad!" No, welcome to America. Land of Orlando City currently plays at the Citrus Bowl -- which is being totally rebuilt -- but are STILL getting their own stadium on top of it. Orlando City is the last regular tenant of the Citrus Bowl, too. Think of how crazy that is for a moment. We build stadiums. It's like crack to us.

    What? The Georgia Dome is 20 years old? BETTER BUILD A NEW ONE! Minneapolis just built a new MLB stadium and college football stadium? Well sure let's throw in a new billion dollar NFL stadium, too! New Yankee stadium, New Mets stadium, Madison Square Garden being completely remade, Nets get a new arena in Brooklyn. New Giants stadium. All within the last 5 years. Are people outraged? Not really.
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2014
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  15. ImaPuppy

    ImaPuppy Moderator Staff Member

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    In 5 years: TFC wins MLS Cup, sparking Canada's thirst for global domination. They subsequently invade the U.S. and defeat us by drowning us in Poutine gravy.

    In 10 years: We're all playing sawker on ice with skates (ugh, Canada), which isn't much fun because every touch of the ball leads to the ball deflating. Global ball supply can't keep up with demand and the world falls into a global economic depression (I know this isn't how economics work, but w/e) and chaos.

    In 15 years: We drown our sorrows in maple syrup after seeing all of our hard work come crashing down at the hands of those warmongering Canadians.

    Wait, what were we talking about?
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  16. chudbeagle

    chudbeagle Member

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    I don't even know about that 25,000 average let alone the other zany numbers.

    There is NO TV money to speak of, so I see none of this as reality.

    I DO predict at least 8 more teams using the clever, well thought-out SC and FC names and even a few SCFC and FCSC as well as INXS, US, REM, ABC, EBN-OZN, NIN for good measure (that should be the first ever and last ever EBN-OZN reference on this board-if you had MTV around 1983 you know what musical travesty I speak of!).
  17. 4door

    4door Member+

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    10 years ago our salary cap was 1.9M. And no we didn't have DPs but we did have allocation players. We have seen incredible growth of the sport over 10 years and our current salary cap is 3M. Its a 60% increase, if you were to average out the DPs league wide and added the old allocation players I think you can say that spending has doubled in the last decade. Your prediction is that in the next 10 years we will see about a 20X increase. Seriously? And than 5 years after that you think that MLS will basically be the most successful sports league the world has ever seen. Basically take your 5 year prediction and move it back to 15 years and you'd probably be right. The rest is just silly. Soccer will always be a very segmented market and it will stop MLS from growing to huge levels like NFL. There aren't other NFLs that can sell pro football to TV/Sponsors in the US. Lack of competitors makes those other US pro leagues incredible valuable. But MLS will always have competition, the sponsorship/tv dollars will always be split up even if the sport continues to grow.
  18. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    That's not to mention that 10 years ago there were only two SSS. Columbus and HDC. How many do we have now? 10 years ago no one was going to a Wizards game either.

    I believe we are very close to an explosive tipping point for soccer in this country. There's so much that is right at the cusp of changing that will spark a huge shift. First of all, MLS as it is now, doesn't fully reflect the country. The Midwest is under-supported and the southeast isn't even in the party whatsoever. Both of these facts are about to change and change in big ways. I'm positive that Orlando, Miami, Minnesota and Indianapolis will all be great for MLS. Atlanta, I don't know, but their stadium is going to be so insane people are going to be blown away anyway.

    Furthermore, I see Miami and NYCFC along with LA Galaxy and the new LA2 really lighting a fire under the league. You know Garber is going to go HUGE with LA2 the same way he did with NYCFC. When he brought in Chivas -- about 10 years ago -- the league was desperate for money and the league wasn't really financially attractive. Both situations are completely reversed this time. We will find someone spectacular for that club.

    I bet many of you still watch Arsenal, Juve, and Bayern. Why? Because its good stuff and it really has no effect whatsoever on your team in MLS. People don't understand basketball, baseball or football in many countries, which limits the number of people that will watch it. Everyone knows Soccer. This is why I believe you have it backwards, MLS actually can get quite a bit more money from overseas TV contracts than the other leagues. I think if NYCFC meets the LA Galaxy in a MLS Cup game a few years from now, people overseas will definitely be finding ways to see it. We are also one of the only leagues playing during the European offseason. When we get big enough, we'll have a spotlight to ourselves.

    I think the biggest change between now and 10 years from now though, what will enable MLS to reach these "insane" salary figures will be people will start watching on TV. A lot. I suspect the next TV deal will be much, much larger than this one and that's why I've given the figure that I have.
  19. MattXG

    MattXG Member

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    I think you guys might be interested in this thread from 10 years ago:

    Guy asks what would happen if say David Beckham came to MLS? Hindsight comedy follows.
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/threads/lets-say-big-stars-wanted-to-come-to-mls.107696/

    I found this beauty also from 10 years ago:

    I think what's interesting, 10 years later, is this poster mentions the "hate" and the outright dislike for Soccer in American media. I definitely think the outright HATE for Soccer in America, in particular the media, has all but disappeared like this poster had wished for.

    EDIT:

    Another classic worth the read. Guy suggests paying aging international stars "big money" to play in MLS:
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/...ng-euro-stars-1-million-bucks-to-play.121032/
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2014
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  20. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

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    Wow, I am all for legalized drugs and all, but holy hell :)
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  21. Bubba1971

    Bubba1971 Member+

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    How about this:

    5 years
    Avg Attendance: 20,000
    Salary Cap: 5 million
    24 teams

    10 years
    Avg Attendance: 22,000
    Salary Cap: 7 million
    28 teams

    15 years
    Avg Attendance: 25,000
    Salary Cap: 10 million
    32 teams

    By that number the total salary would be $320 million in 15 years, and MLS would need about $1 billion in revenue to support that. At $200 million?!?! they would need at least $13 BILLION in revenue, which is more than the NFL and 3 times the EPL.

    Happy St Patrick's Day.

    [​IMG]
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  22. MattND28

    MattND28 Member

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    No.

    Its a salary CAP. Not a salary average. It doesn't mean every team will be paying that or even close to that.

    I think the next CBA alone will have the cap moved to around 7 mill....

    The players are going to have the owners dead to rights in this CBA. The owners know progress is being made, some actually want to spend more, and none will want to risk the momentum with a work stoppage.
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
  23. Bubba1971

    Bubba1971 Member+

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    So, what you're telling me is that a league that's built on parity that has no logical reason to have a $200 million salary cap is going to have a $200 million salary cap? They're going to let teams drive themselves into the ground so that we can play in UEFA CL, which isn't going to happen anyway? OK, that makes sense.

    MAYBE, HUGE maybe, if the CBA is a long one, say around 6 or 7 years, you'll see $7 million at the end of it. This year's salary cap is around $3.1 million, I think we'll see next year's jump to $4 something million (35% increase). After that maybe 5% increases per year.

    For the record, that puts MLS in League Championship territory when you include DPs, which isn't bad company.
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  24. Bisquick_in_da_MGM

    Bisquick_in_da_MGM Member

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    Like others, I think the tipping point is here. The real tipping point is expansion at all levels, MLS to USL Pro. As more teams are added around the country, more people become fans. The more soccer that is on TV, the people who live near a team will watch. Why? Because the global will be recognizable locally.
  25. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

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    Even at my most optimistic I wouldn't expect more than 5 million in the first year of the next CBA. That's a pretty healthy increase already that should be noticeable on the field. They will spend on the roster in other ways too like DPs, retention funds and academies. I expect strong gradual growth on all those fronts. I just don't see the short term revenues to quadruple overnight that would warrant some of the fanciful numbers thrown around in this thread.

    The rate of growth in this league is already very healthy as is. Anyone itching for more probably doesn't realize how far we've come and how good we have it already.
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