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Projected Top Four Seeds

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by collegesoccer, Nov 11, 2012.

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  1. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member

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    Apr 11, 2005
    I think the top four seeds are set regardless of outcomes today. Not necessarily in this order other than ND being a lock at #1.:

    1. Notre Dame
    2. Georgetown
    3. Akron
    4. Maryland
     


  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    Akron's a really good team but if you at their schedule, they don't have mtuch in the way of quality wins. The best teams on their schedule this year are Notre Dame (loss) and Creighton (tie). Their best win is over Indiana, which is barely a top 20 team right now and finished in the middle of their conference and crashed out of their conference tournament in the 1st round.
    The 4th toughest opponent for Akron this season is St. John's, which was another tie.

    So, against the four best teams they played, they went 1-1-2.

    I just don't see how that justifies a top four seed. I mean, Coastal Carolina has a shiny one-loss record, too, built mostly by beating poor teams, and know one is saying they deserve a top four seed. Akron's schedule is tougher than Coastal's but not by a lot.
     
  3. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

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    I don't think there's any comparison between the two schedules. Coastal Carolina couldn't even beat Ohio St or Bowling Green, and neither of those teams counts among the highlights of Akron's schedule.
     
  4. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    The Coastal comparison may have been a poor choice.

    But it doesn't change that Akron doesn't have much in the way of high-end wins and that they failed to win both games against the toughest teams they played.
     


  5. jdgaucho

    jdgaucho Member

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    Something tells me New Mexico is gonna be around a 10 seed again this year.
     
  6. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member

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    .... just got tied by Air Force. Better win this one or lucky to have that.
     
  7. Xfactor

    Xfactor Member

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    I think these four deserve it and I hope they award the top four because they earned it - not because it they want to spread out the country. These are the four top teams.
     
  8. thetank123

    thetank123 Member

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    Fishing for replies eh? :laugh:

    I know it's an easy out, but if you watched the Creighton or St. Johns game it was pretty clear that Akron was the better team. If it wasn't for a horrendous offside call in OT (glad to provide the picture if we all don't remember) and otherworldy goalkeeping by Rafael Diaz they would have won both of those games. As for the Notre Dame game, by all accounts Akron was dominating (and up 1-0) until the red card in the 35th, when the game overwhelmingly turned in Notre Dame's favor. These are all excuses, I know, but against no team at full strength has Akron not been the better team. Plus, they have been thoroughly beating teams that they are supposed to beat. The finishing needs to improve, but the shooting/corner/TOP stats are pretty crazy.

    As far as the comparison of Coastal Carolina and Akron's SOS:

    Coastal Carolina: 163
    Akron: 18

    Even if you want to argue over how the SOS is constructed you're going to be hard pressed to make up 145 spots.

    Are we doing a bracket this year? When is the last game?
     
    fknbuflobo and espola repped this.
  9. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    That's all you needed to write.

    Look, if every team got credit for shoulda's and coulda's, thinks would be chaotic and dramatically different. The bottom like is Akron played two top ten teams and didn't beat either of them.

    You can make excuses all you want, but excuses are just that. It doesn't change that their best win was over the No. 19 team and that they are 1-1-2 in their games against their four toughest opponents. Those are facts.

    The high-end of Akron's schedule just isn't nearly as taxing as the high-end of the other teams in contention for a top four seed.

    All I’m saying is that Akron shouldn’t be a Top Four seed, not that they aren’t very good.

    Let’s conceded that Notre Dame and Maryland are locks for two of the Top Four seeds.

    UCLA tied @Maryland (2), beat Tulsa (13), won @ Virginia (15) and split with Washington (18), winning away, losing at home. Their other loss is to New Mexico (14).

    That’s three more wins better than Akron’s best win and one tie better than Akron’s best tie.

    Like Akron, Georgetown’s best losses are to Notre Dame (twice, once on the road and once at a neutral venue in OT) and Connecticut (7). They have a pair of wins over Marquette (8) and wins over Virginia (15) and BEAT St. John’s, a team Akron tied.

    So, compared to Akron, that’s a common loss/losses, three wins over teams better than Akron’s best win and a win over a team Akron tied.

    I just think when you compare Akron to UCLA and Georgetown that the Bruins and Hoyas are more deserving of playing at home as long as they keep winning and that if the top four seeds all win out (which they never do) and Akron does, that Akron should have to travel for their QF.
     
    SJTillIDie and Libric repped this.
  10. thetank123

    thetank123 Member

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    I get what you're saying, but you're discounting the fact that Akron has 1 loss while Georgetown and UCLA have 3 and 2 respectively. A loss is a loss. Just like no team should get to count the "maybes", you can't give a team credit for a loss but penalize a team for a win. Akron played as difficult an out of conference schedule as they possibly could and only lost once. They should be rewarded with a top 4 seed along with UCLA.

    And you know what? Maybe if it was just based on pure numbers I'd agree with you. But the fact that it's done by committee and Akron is ranked 1, have been unstoppable the last 13 games, and Georgetown and Notre Dame are both in the Big East makes me think the committee will reward them.
     
    fknbuflobo repped this.
  11. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    [quote="thetank123, post: 26762903, member: 161974"Akron played as difficult an out of conference schedule as they possibly could and only lost once.[/quote]True. But they also played a candy-ass conference schedule and that should be factored into it, too.

    The other teams have to go bust their asses against elite teams repeatedly in the conference games where as Akron could run out its subs and still win the MAC.

    And somehow, the MAC got worse this year than in recent year's past. When you're AVERAGE conference game has an RPI of 117 and the highest one is outside the Top 50, you aren't getting taxed. That's 9 games with an RPI between 57 and 196. (Plus Ohio State did them no favors with their 9o RPI. )

    That's a lot more weak games than the other teams competing for a Top Four seed have and as good as Akron is, I don't think they should get rewarded for playing a softer schedule than the other teams in the Top 5, especially when they didn't win their only top 10 games and their best win is worse than the others' best wins.

    All I'm saying is they deserve a 5 seed because of their record and SOS relative to Georgetown and UCLA.
     
  12. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    After all my points, the NCAA's RPI - the one that counts - came out and Akron is 2 so I think they're pretty certain to be Top 4.
     
  13. colins1993

    colins1993 Member

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    .
    Yup.
     
  14. fknbuflobo

    fknbuflobo Member

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    "Bad wins" trumps "good losses".
    Akron gets #3 seed.
     
  15. No shinguards

    No shinguards Member

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    Does it really matter 1-2-3-4? I think its which bracket you end up in .. and the other teams in the bracket that you will have to play...
     
  16. thetank123

    thetank123 Member

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    Well the higher the seed the easier your path is...you get to play the worst possible teams.
     
  17. JoeSoccerFan

    JoeSoccerFan Member+

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    It doesn't matter which of the top 4 seeds you get. These top 4 seeds are assured home field advantage (as long as they win).
     
  18. JoeSoccerFan

    JoeSoccerFan Member+

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    Not always, if the committee puts a good team as a lower seed, you could face tougher competition earlier.
     
  19. SydneyFan11

    SydneyFan11 Member

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    The new RPI this morning is up.

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d1/ncaa_mens_soccer_rpi

    1. Notre Dame
    2. Akron
    3. Maryland
    4. Georgetown

    Could the committee go away from that? I'd doubt it. I think Md. could grab 2 with Akron at 3, but Gtown and ND at 1 and 4 seem like locks.

    Crushing loss for the Hoyas though, can't hold a lead for 30 more seconds.
     
  20. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

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    I could see UCLA leap-frogging Georgetown, but otherwise, I think that's it.
     
  21. thetank123

    thetank123 Member

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    Georgetown went 2-3 against "elite" conference teams. (beat Marquette twice, lost to ND twice and UConn once) The rest of the schedule is quite possibly worse than Akrons...Princeton, Penn, Lehigh, Seton Hall (Twice), Providence, FGC, UIC, etc. They had 4 quality wins the entire season, two against Marquette, one against SJU, one against UVA. You could argue the PSU win was a nice win, but this isn't exactly a team that's been mowing down high level opponents and got tripped up against some good teams, thereby negating the two additional losses.
     
  22. Xfactor

    Xfactor Member

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    Tank - this is what the RPI is for. It's close, but Georgetown has won with a tougher schedule. If you match both side by side, you'd hate to face the teams Georgetown has taken on this year - VA, UConn, MU (2x), ND (2x), St. J, Penn St., even Northridge! I actually think that what CSN came up with today as a bracket makes sense.
     
  23. JoeSoccerFan

    JoeSoccerFan Member+

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    Let me also add that in these 3 losses, the 2nd string GK played. True, but not 100% accurate. In the BE final, Gomez left for a few minutes being tended to a cut head.

    Nevertheless, would-a/should-a, we'll see in 6 hours.

    I do think that putting MD #4 and Gtown #5 would be an intriguing cross-town rivalry with MD hosting because they have lights and can handle the bigger crowd.
     
    gsterp repped this.
  24. Well Duh

    Well Duh Member

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    MD would host simply because they are the higher seed...flip the seeds and they are at at Georgetown.
     
  25. Xfactor

    Xfactor Member

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    You make a good point with the Georgetown goalie. I think that "Lights" is the exact wrong reason to seed a team 4 or 5. They deserve to be seeded #4 (IMO) and a team should never be moved up or down because they have lights or locker rooms or nice benches. That would be the worst travesty.
    (Better idea is to send UCLA out to Georgetown - I think Georgetown beat them a few years ago so lets set up a rematch).
     
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