Rebuilding Mode...

Discussion in 'Real Salt Lake' started by FullBack77, Oct 26, 2012.

  1. DrownedElf

    DrownedElf Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Location:
    Ogden
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I guess it depends on how you want to measure success. Personally, this season was a total bust. If your mantra is going to be 'trophies not friendlies' then bring home a damn trophy. It's one thing to get to a couple Open Cup finals, or MLS cup finals, and lose. I can live with being that close. But to crash out against freaking Minnesota, crash out of the group stage of CCL, and fail to even score in the playoffs, that's a bust IMO. I love that we're a good team, but as this season has shown, we were a very complacent team. There was no fighting for spots on the roster, those were apparently given out in preseason with no chance of changing barring injury. The tactics were all identical, and the subs were largely the same, barring injury.

    We need a fresh tactical approach to go along side the diamond. Something to swap to against teams that are better at breaking down the diamond then we are at executing it. We need speed. Couple quicker guys in the midfield, a speedy forward to play up top, and a quick outside back would do wonders for this team. Javi's contract is over now, and unless he drops down to ~150k or less, he needs to go. He's just not good enough for what he's making, and if he does stay, it needs to be for a lot less. Grabavoy and Johnson I'd be fine with leaving. One of Borchers/Olave should go, probably Olave based on injury problems. I like Beltran and Wingert, but if one of them were traded for a speedy outside back, or at least one that can put in a good cross like Russell, I'd be all for it.

    The only 3 guys I'd absolutely keep are Rimando, Beckerman, and Saborio. If we keep Sabo, we need to have a few guys on the field that know how to put in a good cross to set him up, or at least enough speed throughout the team so that teams can't consistently put 2 defenders on him so he's not as effective.

    I don't think there's necessarily a ton that needs to be changed, but getting ~4 solid younger guys approaching their prime would do wonders. Tweak the tactics and formation a little, and actually have players fighting for spots. Get rid of the complacency.
    15 to 32, TheBiff, dstorm and 1 other person repped this.


  2. ShaggyReAL

    ShaggyReAL Awesome is my middle name

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2009
    Location:
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I so agree with this.

    But

    Jason Kreis isn't going to suddenly change his mind. There is good reason why I like to call Kreis the Jerry Sloan of MLS. He's stubborn and relies way to much on aging veterans while up and coming talent rots on the bench or gets subbed off for Johnny Steele.
    Gil got a lot of minutes but I think he should have gotten a lot more. Seba not getting minutes all year baffles the hell out of me. He always looked good to me when on the pitch. I know more goes into the decision than how they look on the pitch but giving him 5-10 minutes a game over Grabs, Morales,Johnson or whoever would have been more beneficial for him and the team.
    UPinSLC repped this.
  3. RSLer

    RSLer Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Location:
    Stansbury Park, UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Keep all of the back line starters and subs, but try to trade Olave. Keep Rimando, KB5 and Sabo. Keep the youngsters. Possibly keep Javier, if we can bring in some midfield wings who like to go forward. Keep Yordani. Not sure about Gil...not convinced he's going to become what we thought he would become. We need to add some pace up top and some attacking boldness in the midfield.
  4. ShaggyReAL

    ShaggyReAL Awesome is my middle name

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2009
    Location:
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I don't disagree with this at all. Would anyone be upset at all if we brought the whole defense back. Keeping Olave, Borchers, Shuler and KWS together one more year would be in the best interest of the team. Shuler has proven he can be a force at CB but hasn't proven he can stay healthy. I'd rather have 4 CB's that can start and rotate them accordingly. That would allow RSL to focus more on the offensive attack this season.

    I'd try and sell Johnson and Gil. I'm not ready to give up on Gil but I'm not sure if he's worth his price tag. Johnson would be missed but his price tag is to high. Let Grabs go or at the very least let him know he's a bench player, not a starter. I love Javi but even at a lower price he might no be worth bringing back. He's great with the ball at his feet but he's to slow to do anything with it. He can't beat anyone so he has to slow the play down every time, defending him is a little to easy these days.

    If we keep the defense how it is I think it would make all these changes in the midfield a litter easier to deal with.

    We need more forwards. I know we don't own the rights to Findley but I would do what we can to get those back and see if we can get him back in Salt Lake. It might not be possible financially but right now he's in the worst division in England. He might not be good enough for England but he's good enough for MLS.

    Get rid of Paulo, I think Kreis broke him. He isn't the same attacker he use to be when he first came to RSL.


  5. Ivensor

    Ivensor Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Here's why I don't think measuring MLS teams based on trophies makes much sense:

    To win MLS cup you have to win through in 3 rounds: Conference Semis, Conference finals, and Cup final (I'm ignoring the play-in round, since RSL didn't play in one). Now, let's just say that RSL had a 50/50 chance of winning in each round. That's not a bad assumption, given the parity in this league. So, what's the probability that RSL will win the Cup? It's (0.5*0.5*0.5)=12.5%. In other words, if RSL entered 100 playoffs, we should only expect to have 12-13 trophies at the end of it.

    How good would RSL have to be to have even a 50% chance at winning the Cup? They'd need to have better than an 80% chance at winning in each round, since 0.8^3=51%. Remember the Quakes, who absolutely dominated this season? They won 69% of their games, so even they only had something like a 33% chance at winning the Cup. Some of you are talking like RSL should have waltzed into each playoff or CCL tournament and either gotten to the final or won the whole thing each time. If that's what you want, you need to find an MLS team that wins 90% of the time, year in and year out. Good luck with that.

    Apologies for using math and logic on BS. ;)
  6. Ivensor

    Ivensor Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    By random coincidence, this exact argument was just posted on the Freakonomics blog, but with regards to baseball. Maybe I should become a psychic...
  7. I_Believe_In_Kreis

    I_Believe_In_Kreis Member+

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Location:
    on the pitch
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I understand that everybody's still emotional about last night, but remember this mantra: Slow changing of the guard = San Antonio Spurs, blowing it up & firing the coach = Sacramento Kings.
    BalanceUT and SenordrummeR2 repped this.
  8. dstorm

    dstorm Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Location:
    Salt Lake City
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Disappointed but not really surprised about last night. It's a tenuous time for the club, I'm not sure fans realize how close we could be to a middle / lower end club next year due to the combination of missing some extra pay-days and dealing with the salary cap.

    It won't be as easy or simple as making major changes and returning to top 3 in the West.

    I'm not sure who have expiring contracts this off-season - but as far as value for the money, Olave unfortunately has slipped considerably. He is so good when healthy, but not healthy nearly enough to justify the cost. The one I'll miss the most next year is Javi Morales - he has been so fun to watch over the years and has been involved is so many great moments for RSL - but undoubtedly he isn't the same player he was. I wonder if he never fully recovered after the Chivas tackle.

    Borchers is pretty reliable so I think we keep him - agree with those hoping we keep Sabo, he's a proven scorer.... but who knows at this point.
  9. TheBiff

    TheBiff Member+

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    Ecuador
    The problem is that RSL is even worse than the San Antonio Spurs at changing the guard.
    We need some changes.
    I know we won't ever blow up the team again, but we can't have another off-season like the last two years if we want to be anything above midtable.
  10. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2008
    Location:
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    We don't have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli of MLS on this team, though
  11. 15 to 32

    15 to 32 Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2008
    Location:
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    watching him play last night, I really wonder what martinez could have done for RSL.
    Imagine a midfield of him out left, KB and Velasquez in the middle, and Viana out right...
  12. georg

    georg Member+

    Joined:
    May 25, 2009
    Location:
    Parowan, Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Never can happen unless you put Steele in there somewhere.
  13. UPinSLC

    UPinSLC Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2004
    Location:
    SL,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    we've already discussed this IBIK, there have been PLENTY of examples both ways. you list one example where a changing of the guard has worked and i can find just as many examples where it hasn't. you list one example of where blowing it up hasn't worked and i can list just as many examples where it has.

    1 example does NOT make a sample size.

    this team needs drastic changes.
  14. UPinSLC

    UPinSLC Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2004
    Location:
    SL,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    it's not so much the lack of trophies, it is the way we have utterly failed to succeed when the team is put in positions to do so. the way they have played recently (or historically) in these matches leads me to believe that if RSL entered 100 playoffs, i would expect them to win maybe 5 instead of 12-13 like statistics show. you use numbers for your argument, but at the end of the day the numbers are absolutely meaningless when you have a sample size of 1. every year is it's own sample, completely independent of the previous and completely independent of the next. you cant use statistical models on a sample size of 1. what we can do is use historic trends to help us predict future events, historically RSL has been an utter disaster when given a certain set of circumstances, like we had last night.
  15. Ivensor

    Ivensor Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense at all. This is not a sample size of 1. Independence has nothing to do with sample size. By my count, RSL has entered a total of 6 tournaments that Kreis has taken seriously (i.e. not the Open Cup):

    2008: MLS Playoffs (exited in 1st round)
    2009: MLS Playoffs (won)
    2010: MLS Playoffs (exited in 2nd round)
    2010: CCL (exited in final)
    2011: MLS Playoffs (exited in 1st round)
    2012: MLS Playoffs (exited in 1st round)
    2012: CCL (exited in group stage)

    Each observation is independent, that's how you create a sample, by putting together independent observations. Is 6 a large-enough sample? Of course not. It's also not enough to create a historical trend. And that's my point. You really can't judge much about success when you base it off of tournament outcomes. To date, from six tournaments we have 1 trophy. So, we've been successful 17% of the time, which is pretty close to what you'd expect if RSL has a 50/50 chance of winning each game. But it really doesn't tell us much at all.

    That's why I prefer looking at the regular season. From 2009-2012, this core group of RSL players played 128 games. That's a much better sample size than 6. And RSL's record over those 128 games (58-38-32, 1.61 ppg) tells me that this was a pretty incredible group of MLS players that did some amazing things. Now, if you want to attribute the fact that RSL only has 1 trophy from this group to bad tactics or a failure to step up in tournaments, that's fine. I'm just pointing out that it's indistinguishable from luck, so we shouldn't kid ourselves that the stories we like to tell about Kreis employing the wrong tactics or using the wrong subs actually mean anything.
    Hardtcore, goobx1 and Allez RSL repped this.
  16. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2007
    Location:
    El Llano Estacado
    I agree with all of this.

    Still wish Espindola had scored in the CCL final, though.
  17. SenordrummeR2

    SenordrummeR2 Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2008
    Location:
    Layton, UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    +1

    I'd watch the past 3 years over the first 3 years any day of the week. I understand that people are upset with how things have ended over the past couple of years, but aren't you acting just a tad bit spoiled and over the top? Less than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs, and we've done it for the past 5 years. I'd say that is worth celebrating. We were the first MLS team to make it to the CCL final (in it's current format). I'd say that is worth celebrating. Sure, it would've been nice to win more trophies, but at least we won one (helllooo Jazz fans). I'm just glad we're not finishing at the bottom of the league anymore. That may sound complacent or homerish, but at least I'm not a Chivas USA fan.
    BalanceUT repped this.
  18. UPinSLC

    UPinSLC Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2004
    Location:
    SL,UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I'm happy the team and organization has taken steps to become something more than what we were in the first 2 to 3 years. That should be celebrated. But each passing season gets us further from our championship without getting any closer to our next. That 2009 MLS Cup is looking more and more like an extremely rare event in our franchises existence (and maybe it's just that except for a few circumstances winning an MLS Cup really is an extremely rare event). With each passing year it is hard not to look at RSL as a clone of the Utah Jazz. Solid organization, long run of success, stubborn coach set in his ways, consistent lineups with solid but unspectacular veterans while promising youth go wasted, consistent runs among the leagues top teams with many years of playoffs and very limited ultimate success. I don't want RSL to be the Utah Jazz of MLS, I'll take the downs with the ups as long as the ups result in years like 2009 and 2010. If we have years like 2005-2007 and it results in a nice run of success like we've had with an MLS Cup win and CCL final appearance, so be it. BUT don't get complacent and happy with 45-50 points every year, getting into the playoffs and maybe making the western conference finals, getting a CCL spot by luck and not making it out of the group stage.

    I want to experience that ultimate glory again and if that comes with a price tag of being a 2005-2007 RSL team every 5 years, so be it. Being a 2012 RSL team every single year would suck ass.
    lurpythepirate and georg repped this.
  19. phills

    phills Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 1999
    Someone said they would take the last 3 verses the first 3 years, I agree. I don't see how anyone can say this was not a succcessful season. We made the playoffs. Some teams didn't. They are the teams that did not have a good season. In the off season we need to find good forwards and get rid of paulo, braun, and bonfigli. We desperately need an AM if javier is gone. Gill is not the answer. We need a midfield that can be offensive. Gill, Johnson, Ned and Javier just did not add anything to the offense. Only two did-Saborio, and Fabi!!We did awfully good with only two players that could score. Ned and Will are great on defense but just cant seem to get in the offense so maybe they should be used for trade etc. Javier will need to take a lower salary. Olave has been injured but so has shuler all year so I don't want another team to have them, so I would keep them. I also would keep Borchers, Beltran, Chris because who would be better. If we find someone as good as them , we probably would have to pay them the same .I fear going back to the first three years with changing this team alot. I don't think in SlC the fans would support a team that doesn't have alot of wins. The mls cup is hard to get so anyone who says this was a bad year because nothing was won, probably never played a sport ...
    Bulldog SLC and Ismitje repped this.
  20. SenordrummeR2

    SenordrummeR2 Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2008
    Location:
    Layton, UT
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Oh, don't get me wrong, I miss the days when we were surprised at the end of the season. I remember being at Stadium Pizza for the final game of the year in 2008. DadOf6 was there with his family, and a lot of other fans were there. The place was packed. When Movsisyan scored the tying goal, the place went nuts. People hugging random people, celebratory high fives, etc. It was awesome. Same thing with 2009. After we laid the smack down on Colorado, my cousins and I packed into the RioT club with a bunch of people to watch the other games unfold. They had the Seattle game playing on the jumbo tron outside, and then other games on the smaller TV's inside. The place went nuts when the results fell our way. This led into one of the most enjoyable road trips I've been on: traveling to Seattle for the MLS Cup final.

    Since the 2009 cup run and the extraordinary 2010 season, it's become a given that we will be in the playoffs. Which is why I said above that fans are acting spoiled. Sure, RSL has had a really good team, but the playoffs is a collection of really good teams. They're separated by what, 6-10 points (with the exception of Vancouver)? I don't think very many people understand how hard it is to reach the final of any tournament, especially one filled with as much parity as MLS. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make it back to a final for several years. As much as I want a 2nd star on the crest, it's not an easy feat. Only 12 of 19 teams have made it to the cup, and only 9 teams have won the cup, with 5 of the 9 being 1 hit wonders. The MLS Cup run was a magical run, and it may not ever happen again. I'm not saying be complacent with what we have, but I am saying that some people need to be realistic with their expectations.
  21. I_Believe_In_Kreis

    I_Believe_In_Kreis Member+

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Location:
    on the pitch
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Interesting post by Phills above. Let me throw in a few thoughts:
    • RSL has 4 quality center backs. That's good, but having 4 starter-quality players in one position is something no MLS team can afford because it hurts you elsewhere where you can't afford to be so deep. One of those center backs has to go, and it should be a high-priced one. Olave: Love ya buddy, but it's time.
    • Wingert and Beltran are both out of contract and looking for a big raise. One of them won't be back. I hope Beltran stays because he has more upside IMO. Fans should prepare themselves for a lot more minutes from Mansally.
    • Morales, as we all feared, never got back to being "old Javi" after the ankle break. He's no longer a good value...he must go.
    • Gil is interesting but will make too much money next year. I don't think he'll take a pay cut since it would impede his "schwagg" lifestyle. Sorry Luis...you've developed into an average midfielder...unfortunately, you're getting paid like an elite one...there's the door.
    • Johnny Steele...nothing needs to be said here...don't forget your suitcase.
    • I like Viana and Seba - obviously both can play. Unfortunately it's also obvious neither can (or wants to) defend, so they will not get serious minutes in Kreis' system. I hold out more hope for Viana at this point because he was out of shape and learning the system this year. Seba might need to be converted to a striker.
    • Sabo is due a big payday this offseason - not what you want when you're fighting the cap. But I think he needs to get it or next year will be really tough.
    So my current "cut list" looks like this:
    Olave
    Wingert
    Gil
    Morales
    Steele
    Paulo
    Braun
    Bonfigli

    It looks like I'm blowing it up, but most of these guys are reserves/role players. Only three starters on the list, which is exactly what I've been thinking all along (and what I think Garson is thinking).
    UPinSLC repped this.
  22. DrownedElf

    DrownedElf Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Location:
    Ogden
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Was this a good year? Debatable. When your players and FO keep saying how they're pushing for trophies, and show the exact opposite, that screams of complacency. Great we've had 45+ points the last few years. What do we have to show for it? A great organization will be able to look at their team and say, 'we hit 57 points this year, but we can do better.' I want to see this organization strive to be better, not just be happy with making the playoffs. I know we won't win them all, but I can swallow a loss a lot better when the team gives it their all and it just doesn't go their way. Did we see that last night? Maybe for a few minutes after Seattle scored, but certainly not for a full 90. I don't want to be like the Jazz, I want to be better for that. Push for 60 points next season. Push to go another season without losing at home. Try and break the defensive record we set in 2010. I don't want another season like this year where we spent June-August doing absolutely nothing. I don't another season where our last seven games featured 0 goals.

    'Fortune favors the bold' I didn't see anything bold this season, unless you count refusing to bench players regardless of how badly they were stinking it up. For 2013 I want to see us live the motto. Tweak or change the tactics. Get rid of players that aren't quite cutting it anymore. And rotate players based on how they're actually playing, not if they're part of your set 'starting 11'
    lurpythepirate repped this.
  23. DrownedElf

    DrownedElf Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Location:
    Ogden
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I agree with that list, but I'd add one of Johnson/Grabavoy to it. I like both players, but I don't see Grabavoy playing up to the level we need, and he'd bee too pricey as a backup. I like Johnson's work rate, but he doesn't seem to offer much going forward.
  24. ShaggyReAL

    ShaggyReAL Awesome is my middle name

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2009
    Location:
    Salt Lake
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    Johnson's 240K price tag is steep.
  25. Lizzie Bee

    Lizzie Bee Member+

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2004
    Location:
    Utah
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    That IS a pretty bold strategy, one that most coaches would not have the guts to suggest.

Share This Page