The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 23, 2013.

  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

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    PPG projections are funny like that when there's only a game or two left.


  2. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

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    Almost impossible to see the Red Bulls winning the shield WITHOUT winning both games. Even if they take 4 points from the last two games, they can be:

    1. passed outright by KC
    2. passed outright by POR, or on win tiebraker by RSL if there is a winner in their game - and they both end the season against Chivas
    3. Beaten on the 1st tiebreaker by SEA or LAG if either wins their remaining two (they end against each other).

    So while they are in control, my hopes are fading fast just because of the sheer number of teams that can pass them. Any one of 5 teams winning out means 4 points is not enough. And KC is already half-way to winning out... and two of those teams end with Chivas.

    Almost certainly gonna have to be 6 points to get it done.
  3. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

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    This is realistic possibility heading into the final game of the league schedule (Seattle vs LA Galaxy)

    RBNY: 57
    POR: 57
    RSL: 56
    SKC: 56
    LAG: 54
    COL: 54
    SEA: 54


    So in this instance, Seattle would win the supporters shield with a win, or finish 7th overall, and FIFTH in West (going on the road for a midweek playoff) with a loss.
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  4. vividox

    vividox Moderator Staff Member

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    I see what you did there.


  5. aletheist

    aletheist Member

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    Fascinating. Even a draw in that scenario would only get SEA to 6th overall and 4th in the Western Conference. Of course, I am hoping that by then SKC will have 58 points and everyone one else will have fewer.
  6. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

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    Yeah, i also hope the Red Bulls have it sewn up on 59. But there are plenty of crazy scenarios where a 3rd party (RBNY, KC, Portland, RSL) are watching and hoping for a draw in the SEA-LAG game in order to hold onto the shield and/or playoff positioning.

    Going to be a wild and very stressful final 2 weekends.
  7. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

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    Actually if Seattle wins today to get to 54 points that would be their 16th win. Colorado has 13 wins with 2 games to play, making 15 the best they could do, thus they would lose the tiebreaker to Seattle.

    And I think this might be the latest in the season the Rapids have been eliminated from SS contention.
  8. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

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    Ah, good point. My oversight came from the fact that I hadn't originally considered them, then threw them in at the last minute. Doh.
  9. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

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    So, so this would be the correct craziest-possible Supporters Shield scenario (heading into the very final game of Seattle-Galaxy).

    RBNY 57 points, 16 wins
    PORT 57 points, 16 wins
    RSL 56 points, 16 wins
    SKC 56 points, 16 wins
    -------------------------
    LAG 54 points, 16 wins
    SEA 54 points, 16 wins
    -------------------------
    Colorado 54 points, 15 wins


    Galaxy win = Galaxy win SS and are #1 overall, Seattle is 4th in the West.
    draw = keeps both teams at 3rd/4th in the West, RBNY wins the SS
    Sounders win = Sounders win the SS and are #1 overall, Galaxy are 4th in the west.

    There are easy permutations were the #1 team is RBNY, Portland, RSL, or KC. So you could have any of 4 teams praying for a draw in that final game.
  10. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT BigSoccer Supporter

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    We ask ourselves this question on a near daily basis....
    DCU clearly planned and practiced tactics for beating only one team for the month between the semi-final and final matches. Can't blame them, only hardware to play for, can't get to playoffs, might as well dedicate every last brain and muscle cell to beating RSL. It worked... Meanwhile, RSL has yet to show it can win The Big Game. As beautifully as the team plays, as solid as their season records tend to be, The Big Game still eludes us. (The 2009 MLS Cup, while we are proud of the trophy, was not won. It was a draw with Cup awarded in PKs.) So, if you find yourself playing RSL in the MLS Cup, especially at Rio Tinto, don't worry, history is on your side.
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  11. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    With the result in Dallas, Portland clinches a playoff spot in the west.

    RSL has for all intents and purposes clinched, but does not have mathematical certainty yet.
    Here's the scenario for RSL to be eliminated:
    SJE wins out
    COL wins out
    SEA and LAG play to a wildly high scoring draw (Seattle needs 15 goals to surpass RSL's GF, the third tiebreaker. They are even on wins)
    RSL loses out
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  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Notes

    Up to date ... for about an hour and a half.
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  13. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    Portland clinched with Dallas result:
    Seattle must win their last game against LA to pass Portland.
    That means LA must win their game against SJ to pass Portland, since they cannot win against Seattle.
    That means that SJ cannot pass Portland, because they need 6 points from their two remaining games.
    So only two of the three of SJ-SEA-LA can pass Portland. The only other teams which can pass Portland are Colorado and RSL, meaning Portland finishes no worse than 5th.
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2013
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  14. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

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    Way to rub salt into our wounds
  15. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

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    Seattle's updated scenarios for missing the playoffs:
    SJE wins out (@LAG, vFCD)
    COL garners 4+ points from their games again VAN
    LAG wins against SEA

    OR

    SJE wins out (@LAG, vFCD)
    COL wins out (vVAN, @VAN)
    LAG draws against SEA
  16. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

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    So, go Cascadia!
  17. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

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    So Sounders clinch if LA wins or draws tomorrow?
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

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    Go Quakes!
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  19. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

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    As a Rapids fan, I am glad that you're rooting for the Quakes.
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  20. mbar

    mbar Member+

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    Damn that sucks.
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  21. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

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    Shut up, shut up, shut up!
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  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

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    Why so angry?
  23. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

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    I accidentally just shut one of my testicles in a Foreman grill. For that reason and not some repressed memory you jerkwads keep trying to dredge up.
  24. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

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    That's not how you make Rocky Mountain Oysters
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  25. AndyMead

    AndyMead America Uber Alles

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    I recommend wearing pants in the kitchen.
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