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World Cup Individual Advanced Stats

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by schwuppe, Dec 18, 2012.

Moderators: comme
  1. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Great job. This was the original list:

    Rossi - 437 points
    Falcao - 252 points
    Rummenigge - 207 points
    Boniek - 179 points
    Zico - 170 points
    Socrates 156 points
    Giresse - 140 points
    Dasaev - 67 points
    Maradona - 67 points [both ended on same place]
    Platini - 61 points

    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/...-of-the-1982-world-cup.1979112/#post-26866306

    Conti is at number two in that list. He just missed out in the original one:

    Conti - 53 points
    Zoff - 53 points
    Junior - 50 points

    They only published the first 13 players with 50 points or more.


    Indeed some choices will always be controversial (also Brazilian players ;) ) like Maradona winning Bronze Ball in 1990 but not named in the all star team voted on the same day by the same group of journalists! Big discrepancy/inconsistency.
     


  2. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    It seems that Castrol did make a standardization for each World Cup. I.e. the average amount of interceptions can change with each World Cup so they looked at how players deviated from the mean. For example: a player with 20 interceptions while the mean is 10, is more impressive as a player with 30 interceptions with a mean of 25.

    The rather low Castrol rating of Pelé is btw due to three things - they say:
    - low amount of duels won (I find it a shaky stat TBH, how does one measure "a 50-50 challenge"? Will a double blind check lead to the same coding by multiple coders?)
    - low shot accuracy and chance conversion rate (15%)
    - he was also the player with by far the most fouls committed of all Brazilian players (23 or 24 fouls, twice as much as Jairzinho who had with 12 fouls the second most fouls made). Counts against him.

    So despite playing in a dominant team which might have helped him there were three important things that worked against him in the rating system.

    Meanwhile, Cruyff has not a much higher chance conversion rate (18%) but had an awesome shooting accuracy, which saved him in that respect.

    However, I don't understand why Ronaldo02 is at top in the ranking TBH.

    Note: the widget says that Pelé committed 23 fouls but this link says 24.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00019/PastMasters_19439a.pdf
     
  3. Bruford

    Bruford Member

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    Yes, of course. For example, Marcio Santos wasn´t a good choice for top 10 in WC94.
    However, I disagree about the supposed brazilian hype machine. I think the hype affects some players, regardless of their nationality. For instance, Zico and Platini were regarded in the same way during the 80´s. Now, 30 years later, Platini is always regarded as a top 10 player and Zico as a top 30. Another example: Zidane-Ronaldo. They shared te lights in the 96/2003 years and Ronaldo even had a higher peak. Now, 10 years later, Zidane was chosen by fans and media to be the representative of the Post-Maradona Era and had a permanent place in the top 10 (and it seems that there is a revisionism about his WC performances on this topic too). Talking about recent players, Rivaldo is already forgotten (even with 2 great WC), while Gullit is well remembered nowadays.
     
  4. 621380

    621380 Member

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    meaningless games......winning 3:1 against peru is meaningless only for the reason germany was qualifyd...but there is a difrense playing in leon the next game (and not travelling)and the alternative traveling and to play brasil in quarterfinal with a defeat against peru...........i remember well peru wasnt intrest to play against brasil too....in my opinion not a meaningless game at all........

    müller not only had 10 goals, he had 3 assists (tied in team with libuda) 2 assists of the 3 assists was needed to win 2 games .....müller directly has contributed with goals or assists the gamewinning goals for all 5 german victorys...pele and jairzinho combinated did the same..müllers 9.86 castrol ranking is the highest of all players 1970...müller has contributed for 77% of germanys goals (assists/goals)....i remember well maradona is praised for his over 70% contribution from fifa....müllers is not mentioned..

    there are other criterias not mentioned in opta....like some i have pointed out...



    not mentioned the controversal game against italy with this joke of referee yamasaki... and the fifa surprisly has swapped venue for the semifinals protecting brasil and italy.....uruquay and germany had 120 minutes games in quarterfinal and both teams was forced to travel...the opponents brasil and italy not...
     


  5. Bruford

    Bruford Member

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    That´s the problem of the purely statistical analysis. Ronaldo had great shot accuracy and chance conversion in WC2002, however most of his goals were tap ins. That´s make his performance in WC2002 statistically better than really was (it was great, but not outstanding). He scored a lot, but also the rest of the team (8 goals by Ronaldo + 10 goals by the others). I don´t think he is overrated, but his performance in WC2002 I do think it is.
     
  6. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Not true, Zico is always regarded as top 15 by most.

    Difference is that Platini has more club achievements and belonged for more years among the worlds best, despite coming from a less hyped country. Zico was only universally regarded among the world best after 1978 (between 1979 and 1983).

    Platini won with his country a prize in spectacular way. On the other hand, Zico played for a country that is used to winning prizes but did not win anything and had in historical perspective not an outstanding performance (not in Copa America either).

    In reality, Zidane is controversial until this day while Ronaldo is glorified. Ronaldo version between 1996 and 1998 is still talked about today while rarely the qualification is made that Bierhoff outscored him and that scoring 24 goals in 1998 was a lot easier as scoring 24 goals five years before - see the increase in goals per game. It increased from around 2.20-2.30 to 2.70-2.80 in a period of five years.

    Not true either. I think what Gullit has in favor of him is that he was more 'unique' as a player.


    His shot accuracy and chance conversion is statistically good but not outstanding. Rossi, Lineker and Jairzinho are statistically a lot better. That is also why I don't know for which reason Ronaldo ranks on top.

    Anyhow, the stats are still interesting. Pelé committed around 25 fouls but was somehow never yellow carded. Cruyff was two times yellow carded (13 registered infractions) and Maradona one time (10 registered fouls), which also counts against in the Castrol ranking.
     
  7. 621380

    621380 Member

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    i have serious problems to understand your argumentation very often....

    you pointed out gerd müller in your opinion is not longer underated at all for the reason..your example:
    the TIMES has ranked his 1970 worldcup performance above johann cruijfs 1974 performance....the same is for beckenbauer and his 1966 performance..in your argumentation...(you cherrypicked out the 2 german players)...you didnt question the other players ranked above crujff and you didnt question puskas ratings in the top 10...now you complain why eusebio isnt ranked in the top 10 ...

    you have a fantastic memory and count up all 10 players ranked....on the other side you cant find the link anymore....???

    i have used google and found a link....
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sports/2010-05/26/c_13316948.htm

    the TIMES ranking has nothing to do counting single performance of a tournament you did suggest...the TIMES rate career worldcup performances...this is a huge difrence....so johann crujff ranked 7th counting his single tournament isnt a shame...a shame is placars ranking of gerd müllers worldcup career on position 28 (barely made the top 30) if we put in perspective who is rated above him..

    .pick out 4 players..
    crujff,ronaldo,romaro and puskas in the top 10 in placars meaning....müller ranked 28....laughing out loud...

    gerd müllers combinated castrol rating (1970/74) is 9.78..this is the best rate of all players since 1966 counting 2 worldcups.......beckenbauers combinated castrol rating (1966/74) is 9.77 close behind müller....

    gerd müller has created 32 goalchances combinated 1970/74 in 13 games (this isnt bad at all, a good portion famous offensive players or strikers did lesser.. )and he directly has contributed for 20 goals in 13 games...hitting the bar or post 4 times in 13 games as well....recalled goals against yugoslavia and netherland 1974......

    ronaldo in his whole worldcup career in 19 games has created 27 goalchances.....a example.....
     
  8. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Feel the same way.

    Btw, not every chance created is the same. Müller was a bit better in holding the ball as Ronaldo and more static as well so that resulted in a bit more assists and chances in this way, esp. if you play in a dominant team:

    That was not Ronaldo his playing style, and Ronaldo did not play at 1970WC (goal frenzy cup) but at World Cups with less goals scored. See first page.

    Btw, Germany has nothing to complain about favouritism or preferential treatment.

    schwuppe asked me about a statement I made. I said in a byline that German players are as hyped as South American players and Italian defenders.
     
  9. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Thought maybe you appreciate this. Surfaced and saw it a few weeks ago.
    http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/desafio-champions/cruyff-ajax-contra-real-madrid/1599495/

    It links to a video of the Spanish public broadcaster with images of Cruyff in action at the age of 20 against Real Madrid in 1967 in the European Cup, playing with #9. It focuses largely (more than 80%) on his dribbles in the game. Great to see. You also see him making a good backheel and attempting a few tackles on Madrid players but they focus on his movement and control with the ball at his feet. I also noticed that defenders dared to make some risk some risk in the tackles.
    Also nice to see some contrast with his 1974 version although none of his team-mates against Madrid made the 1974 squad except Suurbier and Keizer (and Keizer only got minutes against Sweden at that World Cup) so a comparison has in that respect a limitation.
     
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  10. Bruford

    Bruford Member

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    I already mentioned in another thread that the media (Marca, Telegraph, Guardian, France Football, Sport Illustrated, etc) has regarded Zidane as a first tier legend (alongside Pele, Maradona and Cruyff), someone that Messi has to surpass if he wants to be the best ever. Ronaldo is very popular around the world, but he is hardly mentioned in these discussion about Messi and past legends. I think Zidane is controversial on this forum, because many disagree about the amazing status that media and fans gave to him.
    Look at this: FFT made interviews with coachs and former players about their dream teams. It has 50 interviews (49 on the site + Baresi interview). There is a clearly british bias on these interviews. Anyway, considering starters and bench, Zidane was part of 16 dream teams, while Ronaldo was part of 8 ( Van Basten, a striker of the same caliber, was part of 10). Almost every player that mentioned Zidane said that he was the best of the last generation. French Hype machine?;)
    http://fourfourtwo.com/interviews/perfectxi/default.aspx
    http://dailymilan.com/magazine-articles-interviews/franco-baresis-perfect-xi/
     
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  11. Bruford

    Bruford Member

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    I think someone mentioned that Castrol gave more value to goals scored in final game and Ronaldo had 2 in the final. Or maybe Castrol also gave sentimental value to Ronaldo 02( "the great redemption of the Phenomenon", etc), like all the media, fans and voters of Balon d or and FWPOTY.
     
  12. JamesBH11

    JamesBH11 Member+

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    That was my best guess to simulate why R9 got so high in that WC02 performance in some criteria for a Forward:
    1- Goals in final> semi > quarter = G16 > Group
    2- Goals conversion rate (8/28) and shooting accuracy (18 on target /28 total)
    3- Chances creating for team 13
    4- contribution over games 6/7
    5- Success in duels vs losing ..
    6- Passing /losing ...
    ...

    ONLY if they Castrol went for such route then it explain why Ronaldo02>Muller70> Eusebio66 ... as Muller/Eusebio did not feature in FINAL (1 or 2) but more like quasi final (3/4th place). So Muller was slightly lower. Again just my guessing ... as there was no clear publication of how the points were made of.

    Note that For Midfielders, Defenders or GK should have different criteria or order ... For example in AM , the shot accuracy should be lower while chances creating and passing should be higher in weights.

    =============================================
    For me, Ronaldo02 was a bit too high while Pele70 or himself at WC98 was a bit too low. (in term of what we perceived in watching ...
     
  13. babaorum

    babaorum Member

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    I didn't really notice how much the WC98 French back-four was amazing in the aerial game until I noticed their stats : 53 aerial duels won vs 7 aerial duels lost (a record 88 % aerial duels won). Laurent Blanc in particular was instrumental : 23 aerial duels won vs only 1 lost.
    In fact they were great in every defensive departments. For example they won 72.5 % of their duels and won 83.3 % of their tackles. A quick look suggests that no other backline came close to these figures.
    This and the fact that they were well protected by a strong midfield -again, I didn't notice how Deschamps was great until I looked at his numbers- explain why Barthez had one of the lowest number of saves per 90 minutes (1.6) among all the keepers (Only Taffarel had a lower one in 1994 I think with 1.5).
     
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  14. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Do you know which thread?

    I will reply in detail tomorrow.
     
  15. Bruford

    Bruford Member

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    Here are the links:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/fo...as-Lionel-Messi-the-greatest-player-ever.html
    http://www.marca.com/debate/2012/03/2257/prevotaciones2257.html
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/poll/2012/mar/08/lionel-messi-greatest-footballer-all-time
    http://www.francefootball.fr/fiche/...est-le-meilleur-joueur-de-tous-les-temps.html (here france football also included Ronaldo as a option in the top 10, but Zidane takes a big edge in the poll).
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/draft/ultimate/draft-results.html (here Zidane is in the 9th place, while Ronaldo is the 19th. Van Basten is in the 12th place).
    The conclusion is that the media really love Zidane (and also Messi BTW).
     
  16. babaorum

    babaorum Member

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    Jus for fun, I started to make lists of the best players in the different categories listed by OPTA. Please feel free if you see mistakes, since I did it quickly.
    Anyway, thanks to comme and Shwuppe for the huge job they made.


    % duels :

    1- Blanc 98 : 83.7
    2- Materazzi 06 : 81.4
    3- Mertesaker 06 : 80.6
    4- Webber 66 : 76.1
    5 Baresi 90 = Patrick Anderson 1994 = Thuram 1998 : 75
    8- Ayala 06 : 74.4
    9- Battiston 86 : 72.9
    10- Pique 10 : 72.5


    % aerial duels won (only players with +15 aerial duels won counted) :

    1- Blanc 98 : 95.8 (23 vs 1)
    2- Stam 98 : 84.6 (22 vs 4)
    3- Desailly 98 : 81 (17 vs 4)
    4- Passarella 82 : 80 (20 vs 5)
    5- McCarthy 90 : 79.3 (23 vs 6)
    6- Ancheta 70 : 78.9 (15 vs 4)
    7- Jacky Charlton 66 : 78.1 (25 vs 7)
    8- Wright 90 : 76.7 (23 vs 7)
    9- Skuhravi 90 : 76.2 (16 vs 5)
    10- Arne Friedrich 10 : 72.7 (16 vs 6)



    % aerial duels won (only players with +20 aerial duels won counted) :

    1- Blanc 98 : 95.8 (23 vs 1)
    2- Stam 98 : 84.6 (22 vs 4)
    3- Passarella 82 : 80 (20 vs 5)
    4- McCarthy 90 : 79.3 (23 vs 6)
    5- Jacky Charlton 66 : 78.1 (25 vs 7)
    6- Wright 90 : 76.7 (23 vs 7)
    7- Andersson 94 : 71.4 (35 vs 14)
    8- Passarella 78 : 68.4 (26 vs 12)
    9- Edström 74 : 59.6 (28 vs 19)
    10- Jose Torres 66 : 54.5 (41 vs 34)


    To be continued...
     
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  17. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

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    Clearly the 'duels' stat favours defensive players (although centre-forwards like Skurahvy can do well in aerial duels). It'd be interesting to know whether any successful dribbles contributed to Blanc's 'duels' success though (firstly if dribbling is indeed included in those stats, secondly how many successful dribbles Blanc had in '98). He is top in aerial duels though, so that will obviously be a big contributor. Interesting, as he was to my knowledge not renowned as a header despite being tall.
     
  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Don't know how representative those lists are. I made a quick count and I saw that Bergkamp was included in more lists as Johan Cruijff. Baresi and Maldini were included in more lists as Beckenbauer. Pelé only mentioned in a few teams. Cantona was included an equal amount of times I think.

    I agree that Ronaldo and Van Basten were strikers of similar caliber. Ronaldo more flashy and awesome; Van Basten overall more complete and technically a bit better (with this I mean not trickery). The mistake many make though is to compare healthy Ronaldo with crippled Van Basten. The difference between 8 and 10 inclusions on a total of 50 lists isn't big or significant I'd say and in this respect I think it is a fair reflection. If it had been the other way around I would say the same thing.

    You know how I think about Messi. I think he is extremely lucky to play in such a team and become embedded from the start in such a good environment. Despite all the hype about his seasonal records; in the Champions League his seasonal bests (excluding PKs) isn't in terms of ratio and share in total team goals unparalleled, despite playing in such a great team. Some players had a higher ratio in their better seasons and greater statistical contribution in their team. His career ratio in the CL is better as the rest though, but the likes of Van Nistelrooij, Kaka and so on played for various teams with various compositions and team-mates and also met injuries in their career. So those players have some very good CL seasons (equally good or better as Messi) but in overall career their stat is indeed not as great.

    Zidane was a special player I think for his longevity and his level in various circumstances. On potato fields his technique was still very valuable while I've seen Messi being marked out of the game (for example against Bilbao) despite scoring a goal.
    Zidane was often criticized for his low amount of assists and goals but the funny thing is that he did provide in finals and important games. Critics say: that volley against Leverkusen and the point blank headers against Brazil aren't representative for his total career but you can also say that he took his responsibility and stepped out of his standard 'role' when the situation required. Another good example is the England-France game in 2004. Zidane was already a bit past his physical best and invisible for large portions but still turned the match around with a free kick and penalty kick. Critics are again right that he wasn't a great free kick taker (he wasn't even the primary taker in many of his teams) but he did deliver on important moments like against Spain in 2000 or England in 2004. Or in the knock-out phase of WC2006.

    As said earlier, I do think Zidane played in a strong era (euro2000 itself is a good example) and his 'low' amount of Ballon d'Ors are deceptive.
    In fact, Pelé saw Zidane in 1998, long before the final, as best player in the world with honourable mentions for Del Piero, Ronaldo and Bergkamp. Cruyff thought the same way. Pelé said even: "Zidane has more technique, a bigger contribution for his team and is a more pleasant player to watch as Ronaldo." Pelé also said that Bergkamp was technically even a level above Zidane.
    Cruyff said: "In one simple motion they can do everything with the ball. They are in control and it is energy efficient for their body too. Only the very essential parts of their body move. I'm sure that they [Bergkamp, Del Piero and Zidane] will remain excellent until their mid 30s."
    Pelé said after euro2000 "Zidane is unquestionably the best creative player in the world right now."

    In sum, I personally think there was a time when he was considered among the best or the very best, in particular between 2000 and 2002.

    I agree that his contribution for 1998 and 2006WC is controversial and not every game was equally good. He was also not by definition the best player of those teams.

    But you can make a similar statement about Ronaldo at 1998WC, when he won the Golden Ball. Look here:
    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/threads/all-star-teams-of-1986-world-cup.1979342/

    Suker was in some teams ranked ahead of him, based on match ratings. German magazine kicker thought the same way: 3.14 for Ronaldo and 2.79 for Suker (lower = better). That is a significant difference IMO. Even if you drop their worst rating it is 2.75 vs 2.58.

    I agree too that Zidane should not belong to the first tier. My rough criteria for that tier is that the player had to 'make the situation'. In my perception, Maradona did that, Pelé did that, Platini did that and Cruijff did that (even at Barcelona) but not Zidane - and also not Messi.

    There is always also a luck factor involved though. With a bit more luck on their side in tournaments and their career either Del Piero or Bergkamp had been rated on the same terms as Zidane is rated now. Zidane was the best player of euro2000, the only tournament where his contribution isn't controversial, but his team had then some luck on their side (vs Spain and Portugal in particular).
     
  19. babaorum

    babaorum Member

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    I don't know how much dribbles contributed to Blanc's high purcentage (if dribbling is included in those stats). It is very clear however that Blanc used to move forward with the ball in his feet and that he had a way better technique than the average defender so that it is likely dribbles contributed to some extent.

    Blanc was a great, great header (and was considered as such) not only because he was tall but also because of his sense of positioning and anticipation. A large part of his approximately 150 goals came from headers.
     
  20. babaorum

    babaorum Member

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    Tackles won :

    1- Dunga 94 (45)
    2- Letckov 94 = Shwartz 94 = Van de Kerkhov 78 = Gattuso 06 (32)
    3- Amoros 86 (29)
    4Van Bommel 2010 (28)
    5- Deschamps 98 = Vogts 74 = Batista 78 = Mauro Silva 94 (27)


    Tackles won % (only +20 tackles won counted) :

    1- Overah 66 : 95.2 (20 vs 1)
    2- Mauro Silva : 93.1 (27 vs 2)
    3- Lucio 02 : 90.2 (20 vs 2)
    4- Xabi Alonso 10 = Battiston 86 = Lahm 2010 : 87 (20 vs 3)
    5- Letchkov 94 : 86.5 (32 vs 5)
    6- Overath 74 = Frings 2002 : 83.3 = Lizarazu 98 (20 vs 4 and 25 vs 5 and 20 vs 4)
     
  21. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    Overall I agree that Zidane is not in a separate league as Ronaldo. I think however that his technical skill (nice for highlights), big game performances (plus goals) and longevity counts for him.
    France national team also did not do well without him - see 2002 or during his retirement between 2004 and 2005. France qualified with his help and reached the final (with some good matches by him).
    I know a similar story exists for Brazil during the 2002WCQ campaign but I've understood from others that it was a bit of a myth and that Brazil was still 3rd in their group (out of 10) without Ronaldo so they had qualified anyway.
    Anyhow, I think the impression of 2006WC, the last impression the people had of Zidane, matters a lot in the perception the people have of him.

    As said in previous post: luck also matters. Zidane played at his very best during euro2000 but France needed some luck (without big injustices though - only the PK call against Portugal was debatable). This luck factor was less apparent during 1998WC but Zidane played not as dominant, consistent and good. If the dice had rolled differently then his legacy had not been the same (though he was also unlucky sometimes in his career: 1996 UEFA Cup for example, euro96 and a few other moments).
     
  22. 621380

    621380 Member

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    you are troll....
    you said gerd müller is not underated anymore in your opinion for the reason the TIMES has ranked gerd müllers 1970 worldcup performance above crujffs 1974 wc performance...

    you are a LIAR...
    the times has not rated gerd müllers 1970 single worldcup performance and has not rated beckenbauers 1966 single worldcup performance in his ranking...the times has ranked the top 10 player worldcup CAREER performances ...müllers has played 2 worldcups and beckenbauer 3 worldcup...

    you must not talk in circles...i think every person with a bit logic understand your moronic manipulation...

    however....

    explain me why puskas,ronaldo,crujff,romario and eusebio are ranked in the top 10(placar) and gerd müller barely made the top 30?? so if you think germans are allways hyped so why placar doesent rank helmut rahn and wolfgang overath in the top 100....why is puskas in the TIMES rankings top 10 too ....you never questioned puskas high rankings but run your mouth against others, mostly notorious against germans....

    few weeks ago you praised puskas for 1 assist he had worldcup 1962 in 3 games....i have not seen videofootage of his action for the assist..but i have seen footage of the goal where suggest me rather more a individual goal than a great assistet goal.. and you start downplaying the 1:0 GAMEWINNING assist of gerd müller against uruqay 1970 in a game germanys has not played with his strongest squad due diffrent reasons???

    the word troll has a new name ......puck van heel..
     
  23. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    This is what I said:
    I don't see how I lied? Indeed, this list is a one that considers all World Cups and not single WC performances.

    I'm certain that also a single WC performances list exists where Müller70 is rated inside the top 10.

    Calm down a bit, mister Oberfüher.

    The assist is not on the youtube tape indeed but it is on the full match tape and in match reports. Puskas certainly made one.
     
  24. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

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    It also depends on the type of aerial duels. Quasi-liberos (because he played in a flat-back-four) like Blanc engage in a different kind of duel as designated markers do - if you get this distinction. Blanc was good in the air though, as babaorum said.

    Stats can be interpreted in a few ways I think. The stat 'tackles won' (percentage) might also signal that (defensive ) players took more risk in their actions and/or committed a greater amount/share of unpunished fouls ;) . Also depends on role and which partner they had.
     
  25. 621380

    621380 Member

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    http://www.bigsoccer.com/community/...l-advanced-stats.1979881/page-3#post-26945265
     
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